A Lonely Universe
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A Lonely Universe
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Re: A Lonely Universe
#2Either intelligent life is rare in the universe or there's something that happens to it that prevents it from what we envision as the future of our own species, i.e., colonizing and spreading among planets. Maybe 99.99% of species ruin their own climate before getting off-world. Maybe they all decide it's happier living as hunter-gatherers. Unless we're alone, there is some fate that's common to all intelligences and it isn't a Star Trek future. The universe is simply too old. If anything else like us existed and it was possible to exist like us for a long period they'd have filled every planet before we ever evolved.
Personally I think just the fact the universe hasn't been eaten by Von Neumann machines means we're alone.
Re: A Lonely Universe
#3Nice read. The tl;dr is that we think intelligent life is very rare, but at the same time we think it's really hard (almost impossible) to make an intelligent guess.
Re: A Lonely Universe
#4The Prime Directive is preventing first contact, just need a working warp drive.
Re: A Lonely Universe
#5Either intelligent life is rare in the universe or there's something that happens to it that prevents it from what we envision as the future of our own species, i.e., colonizing and spreading among planets. Maybe 99.99% of species ruin their own climate before getting off-world. Maybe they all decide it's happier living as hunter-gatherers. Unless we're alone, there is some fate that's common to all intelligences and…
Actually, the universe might be too young for life, and we're one of the first. The further you go back in time the more violent events like supernovas you'd find which would make the universe a very hostile environment for life.
Re: A Lonely Universe
#6Either intelligent life is rare in the universe or there's something that happens to it that prevents it from what we envision as the future of our own species, i.e., colonizing and spreading among planets. Maybe 99.99% of species ruin their own climate before getting off-world. Maybe they all decide it's happier living as hunter-gatherers. Unless we're alone, there is some fate that's common to all intelligences and…
Is it not possible that colonizing a galaxy is simply too hard, no matter what intelligence?
Re: A Lonely Universe
#7Dumb physics question: If a dying civilization 99,000 light years away sent its last radio transmission 100,000 years ago, we'd never know it happened, right? Maybe I'm missing something with those radio waves bouncing back and forth around us off of various big objects in the milky way.
Re: A Lonely Universe
#8Either intelligent life is rare in the universe or there's something that happens to it that prevents it from what we envision as the future of our own species, i.e., colonizing and spreading among planets. Maybe 99.99% of species ruin their own climate before getting off-world. Maybe they all decide it's happier living as hunter-gatherers. Unless we're alone, there is some fate that's common to all intelligences and…
> Personally I think just the fact the universe hasn't been eaten by Von Neumann machines means we're alone.
Or maybe it'd make sense to consider how big the Universe is, how fast it expands and combine it with how very local is our perception of it.
If you do that and account for how young our capabilities to hear and see stuff out there actually are, Fermi's paradox doesn't make any sense just like the certainty of statements that start with "that must mean..."
Re: A Lonely Universe
#9See also The Dark Forest:
> The universe is a dark forest. Every civilization is an armed hunter stalking through the trees like a ghost, gently pushing aside branches that block the path and trying to tread without sound. Even breathing is done with care. The hunter has to be careful, because everywhere in the forest are stealthy hunters like him. If he finds other life—another hunter, an angel or a demon, a delicate infant or a tottering old man, a fairy or a demigod—there’s only one thing he can do: open fire and eliminate them. In this forest, hell is other people. An eternal threat that any life that exposes its own existence will be swiftly wiped out. This is the picture of cosmic civilization. It’s the explanation for the Fermi Paradox.
* https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/7378369-the-universe-is-a-d...
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dark_Forest
Kurzgesagt video (12m):
Re: A Lonely Universe
#10Dumb physics question: If a dying civilization 99,000 light years away sent its last radio transmission 100,000 years ago, we'd never know it happened, right? Maybe I'm missing something with those radio waves bouncing back and forth around us off of various big objects in the milky way.
You’re right. If we were not listening right when it passed us we would miss it. Any bouncing around would be so weak it probably could never be detected above background even with absurdly huge antennas.