Heuristics that almost always work
astralcodexten.substack.com
Heuristics that almost always work
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Re: Heuristics that almost always work
#2One of the amazing subtleties in this article... if you're a fast reader you'll stop paying attention to the stories as they go through... kind of amazing that this article is layered like that.
Re: Heuristics that almost always work
#3Generally agree with the article, though the reverse is obviously, "Heuristic which almost never works", and all the stories are about the 1 out 100000 times the weirdo was right and everyone lauded them as a genius but really they just got lucky the once.
Re: Heuristics that almost always work
#4>The only problem is: he now provides literally no value. He’s excluded by fiat the possibility of ever being useful in any way. He could be losslessly replaced by a rock with the words “THERE ARE NO ROBBERS” on it
except for the value of having a security guard visible so that 99% of the robbers who might conceivably want to rob a Pillow Mart decide to go rob Quilting Heaven down the road instead.
Re: Heuristics that almost always work
#5Specifically around the security guard example, the mere presence of a security guard should deter thieves (in theory), so I think the analysis is a little more nuanced than "security guards investigate weird noises".
Unless this all went over my head and that's all sort-of the point of what he's getting at . . ?
Re: Heuristics that almost always work
#6You'd do a lot better with one strong example rather than seven weak examples.
For instance, if you are interested in Bayes Theorem like a lot of rationalists say they are, you could talk about the medical test which is 99.99% accurate but for which 90% of the positives are false positives.
Re: Heuristics that almost always work
#7>The only problem is: he now provides literally no value. He’s excluded by fiat the possibility of ever being useful in any way. He could be losslessly replaced by a rock with the words “THERE ARE NO ROBBERS” on it except for the value of having a security guard visible so that 99% of the robbers who might conceivably want to rob a Pillow Mart decide to go rob Quilting Heaven down the road instead.
Instead of a rock you just need an inflatable security guard.
What's frightening about all this is that this article has gotten 15 upvotes despite 100% of the comments so far being about what a pointless article this is.
Re: Heuristics that almost always work
#8Specifically around the security guard example, the mere presence of a security guard should deter thieves (in theory), so I think the analysis is a little more nuanced than "security guards investigate weird noises". Unless this all went over my head and that's all sort-of the point of what he's getting at . . ?
He's not talking to you, he's talking to the other people in his pod.
Re: Heuristics that almost always work
#9This is where Bayesian inference really signs.
For the security guard, hearing a single noise is likely to be nothing. However, what if you heard two noises, and the sound of tires outside?
Same thing with the doctor. Most good doctor's I know have a sixth sense, about when something is off and needs further tests beyond just take an aspirin. So maybe the person had a stomach ache, and they had lost some weight, and they were looking a little yellow. All of a sudden the probabilities start looking a lot different.
Re: Heuristics that almost always work
#10>The only problem is: he now provides literally no value. He’s excluded by fiat the possibility of ever being useful in any way. He could be losslessly replaced by a rock with the words “THERE ARE NO ROBBERS” on it except for the value of having a security guard visible so that 99% of the robbers who might conceivably want to rob a Pillow Mart decide to go rob Quilting Heaven down the road instead.
Instead of a rock you just need an inflatable security guard. What's frightening about all this is that this article has gotten 15 upvotes despite 100% of the comments so far being about what a pointless article this is.
yeah I don't know I think people might spot the difference. But maybe most of these robbers have a method that says if you see anything like a security guard don't figure out if it is one just go rob somewhere that definitely doesn't have it because there's always somewhere else to rob - but maybe one of the groups of robbers is better than everyone else and they have a real robber mastermind in charge who determines the security guard is inflatable. Then it's on.
on edit: added in missing two words that clarified meaning.