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SoftBank's Sale of Arm to Nvidia Collapses, Arm to IPO

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Re: SoftBank's Sale of Arm to Nvidia Collapses, Arm to IPO

#171

Post by boppo1 »

belter wrote: post #137
ksec wrote: post #64

It sort of make sense for Nvidia's shareholders. The initial offering for ARM was only worth $38.5bn, which was already expensive due to SoftBank initial purchase price and not wanting for a loss. But at Nvidia's peak this deal was worth " $87bn ". For a company that makes less than $2B in revenue and at best ~$300M in Operating Income. Remember this isn't something you can buy and milk the crap out of other market p…

You analysis is right on, and I agree with it. I predict however, the IPO will be an enormous success. Predict a valuation in the $40bn to $45bn with tops of $50bn....lets revisit this thread then ;-) Those facts will: - Disprove once more that story of the market efficiency/price discovery bullshit, will also confirm that: - Benjamin Graham, Value Investing and Warren Buffet strategies were made for other times. The…

I think you're right about this IPO, but we could be heading into a very different paradigm with the rate hikes coming.

Re: SoftBank's Sale of Arm to Nvidia Collapses, Arm to IPO

#172

Post by unfocussed_mike »

Wronnay wrote: post #143
ant6n wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But Intel has a P/E of 9.91, they must be teetering on the brink of bankruptcy!

It's really funny how the market thinks that Intel isn't in the game anymore. They may not be as energy efficient as M1 or ARM chips but they certainly show that they are still a competition and invest a lot of money to improve their performance.

The thing is, the market can be right without knowing why it is right.

The market thinks that in some fixed, relatively near point in the future we will look back at now and say "Intel was already hosed, it just didn't know it".

It may be that the market is currently only expressing interest in the hopes of others that this particular future will come to pass, but that is the only way it will.

Re: SoftBank's Sale of Arm to Nvidia Collapses, Arm to IPO

#173

Post by vxNsr »

tcmart14 wrote: post #145
Dylan16807 wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"RISC-V is a new instruction set architecture (ISA) designed to support computer architecture research and education." "Provide a realistic but open ISA that captures important details of commercial generalpurpose ISA designs and that is suitable for direct hardware implementation." "Be simple to subset for educational purposes and to reduce complexity of bringing up new implementations." https://www2.eecs.berkeley.e…

I can't remember if I heard it in a Jim Keller interview or somewhere else, but I think students also helped initially design the ISA for RISC-V also.

I remember reading this somewhere a few years ago as well. RSIC-V was the "this is an educational ISA, but we're gonna see how far we can take it"

Re: SoftBank's Sale of Arm to Nvidia Collapses, Arm to IPO

#174

Post by RC_ITR »

ZetaZero wrote: post #141
ksec wrote: post #64

It sort of make sense for Nvidia's shareholders. The initial offering for ARM was only worth $38.5bn, which was already expensive due to SoftBank initial purchase price and not wanting for a loss. But at Nvidia's peak this deal was worth " $87bn ". For a company that makes less than $2B in revenue and at best ~$300M in Operating Income. Remember this isn't something you can buy and milk the crap out of other market p…

Disclosures: I've closely followed Nvidia for 15+ years, and own stock. I feel Jensen and Nvidia still, very strongly, wanted to do the deal. The deal increased in value to $87bn only because NVDA's stock price increased that much. The real costs to Nvidia did not increase. ARM is a legitimate competitor to x86, which Nvidia wanted to control.

>The deal increased in value to $87bn only because NVDA’s stock price increased that much.

I get what you’re saying, but in practice, NVDA was essentially issuing x shares to buy ARM. They could do the same thing, sell them, and keep the cash. The rising stock price very much did raise the “real” cost to NVDA, it just wasn’t a simple cash charge.

Put alternatively, NVDA basically said to ARM “you’re worth x% of our company.” While that may be true at one date, a deal struck at the new market cap would be unlikely to come to the same conclusion.

Re: SoftBank's Sale of Arm to Nvidia Collapses, Arm to IPO

#175

Post by chasil »

shmerl wrote: post #15
lunfard000 wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't like much this but having ARM in the hands of financial institution which doesn't have any motivation to invest in the technology doesn't seem any better (and probably doesnt understand/doesnt care about it). In the other hand, Nvidia have a good track record creating good products.

Nvidia also has a long track record of anti-competitive behavior. So it's a good thing they didn't get ARM.

There is nothing to prevent NVidia from buying stock. A lot of stock.

Re: SoftBank's Sale of Arm to Nvidia Collapses, Arm to IPO

#176

Post by freeone3000 »

Wronnay wrote: post #143
ant6n wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But Intel has a P/E of 9.91, they must be teetering on the brink of bankruptcy!

It's really funny how the market thinks that Intel isn't in the game anymore. They may not be as energy efficient as M1 or ARM chips but they certainly show that they are still a competition and invest a lot of money to improve their performance.

But they really haven't. We've not seen hide nor hair of the new process, only iterative improvements on the current process, and the attempt at big.LITTLE x86-style doesn't seem to have worked out terribly well.

ARM has taken out the low-power market that Atom and Pentium classes were aiming at. AMD APUs have long been a favorite of mid-power devices like gaming consoles and are now a desktop enthusiast favorite as well. The i5/i7 class is outmatched in every metric ($/FLOP, W/$, and W/FLOP) by the Ryzen series. IBM and Azure placed their big chip refresh orders with AMD as well, so the hyperscaler market is in danger. The only place Xeons are still superior is the scientific and high computing space, and Threadripper is making inroads there as well.

Intel still has great sales from existing cashflows and OEM agreements, but if you were buying a computer in 2022, why choose Intel? Why would its customers? I think they're going to have to come up with something new and soon.

Re: SoftBank's Sale of Arm to Nvidia Collapses, Arm to IPO

#177

Post by yjftsjthsd-h »

pm90 wrote: post #129
lrem wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And if that control becomes too tight, RISC-V takes it place.

Let’s be real. ARM got a chance because it excelled in a very specific use case: low power. Unless RISC-V differentiates itself in a significant way, it won’t replace ARM.

"About like ARM but without licensing fees and not controlled by ARM (the company)" could easily be a sufficient differentiator, especially if ARM the company starts acting out.

Re: SoftBank's Sale of Arm to Nvidia Collapses, Arm to IPO

#178

Post by chasil »

NortySpock wrote: post #9

Why will ARM succeed where MIPS faded into obscurity? (Well, relative obscurity. I see they are still used in media devices and cheap routers.) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIPS_Technologies

MIPS had a few architectural eccentricities, like branch delay slots, that were tuned to the original design to make it fast.

These eccentricities eventually became a liability.

https://www.jwhitham.org/2016/02/risc-instruction-sets-i-hav...

Re: SoftBank's Sale of Arm to Nvidia Collapses, Arm to IPO

#179

Post by arwineap »

dijit wrote: post #47
lunfard00 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is good for Samsung/Qualcomm/Mediatek/Apple, but let's be honest, it is a failure as a business. Despite of being used on pretty much 100% of all smartphones' SoC, they barely make any money. Also, their designs are lagging behind, M1 and probably Nuvia are example of that.

I think their designs are meant to be lagging, M1 isn't "just better" it's a lot more about media encoding and packing more types of cores together, which while innovative is not what ARM should be doing. ARM makes prototype designs that you can extend, M1 is an absolute success of that model. Regardless: you say they've failed as a business, your metric is how much they earn from being nearly everywhere. I would poi…

I agree with your comment

Do you think that once they IPO pressure from their stockholders will cause rent seeking behavior? Even if they sold to nvidia frankly.

Re: SoftBank's Sale of Arm to Nvidia Collapses, Arm to IPO

#180

Post by chasil »

Kliment wrote: post #105
NortySpock wrote: post #9

Why will ARM succeed where MIPS faded into obscurity? (Well, relative obscurity. I see they are still used in media devices and cheap routers.) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIPS_Technologies

ARM has already succeeded. There is no "will" here. Most microcontrollers in the world are ARM. Most application processors in the world are ARM. It spans from the cheapest to the highest-performing parts. Nearly every smartphone in the world is ARM.

AArch64 is very, very late to the game, and has a lot to prove (beyond mobile).

The older architectures were much earlier (MIPS64 1991, SPARC64 1995, Itanium 2001, AMD64 2003, AArch64 2011).

Yes, AArch64 runs the top supercomputer, and there is enthusiasm; don't mistake this for market share.

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