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AlphaCode as a dog speaking mediocre English

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Re: AlphaCode as a dog speaking mediocre English

#51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's rarely productive to take internet criticism into account, but it feels like AI is an especially strong instance of this. It seems like a lot of folks just want to pooh pooh any possible outcome. I'm not sure why this is. Possibly because of animosity toward big tech, given big tech is driving a lot of the research and practical implementation in this area?

AI has been over-hyped, that's all. The machine learning techniques that were developed and enhanced during the last decade are not magical, like any other machines/software. But people have different and irrational expectations about AI.

> The machine learning techniques that were developed and enhanced during the last decade are not magical, like any other machines/software.

You might be using a different definition of "magical" than what others are using in this context.

Of course, when you break down ML techniques, it's all just math running on FETs. So no, it's not extra-dimensional hocus pocus, but absolutely nobody is using that particular definition.

We've seen unexpected superhuman performance from ML, and in many cases, it's been inscrutable to the observer as to how that performance was achieved.

Think move 37 in game #2 of Lee Sedol vs. AlphaGo. This move was shocking to observers, in that it appeared to be "bad", but was ultimately part of a winning strategy for AlphaGo. And this was all done in the backdrop of sudden superhuman performance in a problem domain that was "safe from ML".

When people use the term "magic" in this context, think of "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic" mixed with the awe of seeing a machine do something unexpected.

And don't forget, the human brain is just a lump of matter that consumes only 20W of energy to achieve what it does. No magic here either, just physics. Synthetically replicating (and completely surpassing) its functionality is a question of "when", not "if".

Re: AlphaCode as a dog speaking mediocre English

#52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI has been over-hyped, that's all. The machine learning techniques that were developed and enhanced during the last decade are not magical, like any other machines/software. But people have different and irrational expectations about AI.

Has it been over hyped? Some ML created in the last 8 years is in most major products now. It has been transformative even if you don’t see it, is informing most things you use. We’re not close to AGI but I’ve never heard an actual researcher make that claim or the orgs they work for. They just consistently show for the tasks they pick they beat most baselines and in a lot of cases humans. The models just don’t gener…

> We’re not close to AGI but I’ve never heard an actual researcher make that claim or the orgs they work for.

The fact that the researchers were clear about that doesn't absolve the marketing department, CEOs, journalists and pundits from their BS claims that we're doing something like AGI.

Re: AlphaCode as a dog speaking mediocre English

#53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you think that's done?

Definitely not with AI? I mean Photoshop could do that 10+ years ago without "machine learning" even being a thing people talked about.

And you'd be wrong. The key part here is "live in real time video"

Photoshop definitely cannot do that, I know that for a fact.

https://towardsdatascience.com/virtual-background-for-video-...

There's an example article on the subject.

Re: AlphaCode as a dog speaking mediocre English

#54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's rarely productive to take internet criticism into account, but it feels like AI is an especially strong instance of this. It seems like a lot of folks just want to pooh pooh any possible outcome. I'm not sure why this is. Possibly because of animosity toward big tech, given big tech is driving a lot of the research and practical implementation in this area?

AI has been over-hyped, that's all. The machine learning techniques that were developed and enhanced during the last decade are not magical, like any other machines/software. But people have different and irrational expectations about AI.

If anything is overhyped in AI it's deep reinforcement learning and its achievements in video games or the millionth GAN that can generate some image. But when it solves a big scientific problem that was considered a decade away, that's pretty magical.

Re: AlphaCode as a dog speaking mediocre English

#55
I like to see how AlphaCode will solve a problem no human has solved before (or very unlikely).

For example, given 3 beads and 2 stacks for the 10er and 1er positions of a number. One can make 4 different numbers when stack all the beads like in an abacus. Without using all the beads, one can of course make more numbers. The question is how many different numbers one can make using n beads, giving full and partial usage of the beads.

It's indeed a very simple problem for 5-7 year olds and I hardly think anyone cannot solve it. Nevertheless, I seriously doubt AlphaCode can solve the problem. What does it say about its supposed Intelligence?

Re: AlphaCode as a dog speaking mediocre English

#56
post #45
post #41

No, just no! Because the whole thing is, a dog’s abstract mental capabilities are far below a human — thus why it would be ASTOUNDING that a dog could master even a primitive form of speaking English. On the other hand, here we are brute forcing a solution from analyzing millions of man-years of published English speech, by using a huge array of computing power to precompute various answers and sift them. It is a bit…

Bunny is a neat dog... https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCEa46rlHqEP6ClWitFd2QOQ The vocal apparatus is not there, but there is certainly more cognition than what people think dogs have (there's a question that I wonder if language enables thought or if thought enables language) And this is even something that a cat can do (not as much language skills, but there's thought going on) https://www.youtube.com/c/BilliSpeak…

I saw a lot of videos about this Bunny dog on tiktok, but discarded it as a gimmick, not believing it's real. Your comment motivated me to look into it more (30 seconds of time).

This NYT article at least does not discredit it [0]. Have you looked more into it? Do you think it would be useful to train your dog to do it?

[0]https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/27/style/bunny-the-dog-anima...

Re: AlphaCode as a dog speaking mediocre English

#57

People think more of what we already have is going to go farther. 1 horse to the carriage gets you to the market. 2 horses to the next village. 4 to town and 6 cross states. Given enough horses we should reach the moon, right? With absolutely no evidence (as none can be had about the future) I believe that AI can be reached with computers and programming languages as different from the current ones as rockets are to…

Scientists in 50s expected to get language translation in 10 years as soon as computers will get enough computation power. They were real scientists, not "data AI scientists" who has little mathematics culture and not aware of any brain studies and problems in this field. But yeah, all aboard is hype train, we have a dog who speak English! Not a state machine that just do similar to what it was programmed on using statistics tricks. This is SO COOL!! PROGRAMMERS ARE DEAD!!!111 WOOOHOO SCIEEENCEEE!!

Re: AlphaCode as a dog speaking mediocre English

#58

As someone who is skeptical, but open minded, about the impact these technologies will have on practical programming I think I'm one of the "people" in "people are complaining..." The article makes some assumptions about what such people think that certainly aren't true for me: 1. That we are unimpressed. I'm gobsmacked. 2. That we don't think these are significant advances. They're obviously huge advances. 3. That w…

Agreed, and also:

> Post: I realize that it “only” solves about a third of the contest problems, making it similar to a mediocre human programmer.

If this is what academia perceives software development to be then it's no wonder we have software that is so disconnected from the human problems it aims to solve.

Programmers don't routinely [re-]invent complex algorithms. We parse complex and contradictory requirements from humans, and compile them into (hopefully) simple solutions on a computer.

The solutions to "competition programming" problems are a Google search away. If you want to take it up as a professional sport then, sure, AI might just replace you (as it already has done with many other mind sports such as chess).

Re: AlphaCode as a dog speaking mediocre English

#59

As someone who is skeptical, but open minded, about the impact these technologies will have on practical programming I think I'm one of the "people" in "people are complaining..." The article makes some assumptions about what such people think that certainly aren't true for me: 1. That we are unimpressed. I'm gobsmacked. 2. That we don't think these are significant advances. They're obviously huge advances. 3. That w…

> Reviewing and fixing code is harder than writing it. Please explain why I'm wrong about that (it's certainly true for me, but maybe most people don't feel that way?)

At the very least, I don't think it being true for you (or me) means much. Presumably like me, you learned primarily to write code and have a lot of experience with it, and have gotten better and better at that with time. I assume that if I had spent as much time and effort learning to efficiently review and fix code as I have spent learning to write it that it would be much easier.

I certainly know of artists who have shipped video games they authored alone, who wouldn't call themselves programmers or know where to start programming something from scratch, who got by with a high level engine and copy and pasting starting points from the internet. (I would call them programmers, but their style is much closer to review and edit than my own.)

Re: AlphaCode as a dog speaking mediocre English

#60

I love this take. Most AI results provoke a torrent of articles listing pratfalls that prove it's not AGI. Of course it's not AGI! But it is as unexpected as a talking dog. Take a second to be amazed, at least amused. Then read how they did it and think about how to do better.

I mean I'm not so impressed, because it seems like someones figured out the ventriloquist trick and and is just spamming it to make anything talk. Its fun enough, but unclear what this is achieving

>ventriloquist trick

I don't understand your analogy here. It really is the machine talking; there is no human hiding behind the curtain.

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