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Ask HN: Does targeted advertising work at all?

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Re: Ask HN: Does targeted advertising work at all?

#121

Post by Tomte »

watwut wrote: post #116
Tomte wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't matter in the slightest. You've identified yourself as someone who is definitely interested in that product. And not "just looking", but actually paying money. That's super valuable to businesses. I still maintain that people who have bought a TV yesterday are more likely to buy a TV today than people who haven't bought a TV yesterday. Very few people buy a TV today. Or in the coming days. It seems like a str…

But what you described does not match my behavior at all. Not the one of my friends. It sounds like logical theory, sure. And it is completely at odds with how I buy things. Or how people I know buy things. > I still maintain that people who have bought a TV yesterday are more likely to buy a TV today than people who haven't bought a TV yesterday. I never ever seen anyone buy second TV shortly after buying first one.…

I'm not married to my theory, "It sounds like logical theory, sure" is pretty much all I'd like to get out of my comment.

I simply cannot believe that this superficially irrational behaviour is as irrational as always asserted on HN.

The big companies are spending a gazillion dollars on ad tech, and while I believe that there is lots of stupid money floating around, I don't believe it's so obviously irrational. Just look at behavioral biology or psychology how much of seemingly irrational or downright stupid behaviour makes a lot of sense when you find the right vantage point.

Unfortunately, there will probably nobody come forward and tell us how it really is, so we can only speculate and build our own pet theories.

Re: Ask HN: Does targeted advertising work at all?

#122

Post by reilly3000 »

You are being targeted with a type of ad campaign called Retargeting or Remarketing. It uses cookies to inform ad networks that you have recently a page with a particular retargeting campaign ID. Its popular among advertisers as it shows that you are "in the market" for a particular item, which is much more specific and valuable than a random person. If you would like these particular ads to stop, simply clear your cookies or click on the encircled I icon inside the ads to configure them to not target you. Alternatively you can block all ads. It's worth noting that some retargeting matches on the cookies of anybody sharing the same public IP, ie router/ISP, so others in your household may have to do the same. Also, often there are retargeting pixels set for multiple ad networks, so you may have to opt out multiple times.

People often ask why they are targeted after they have made a purchase. This is because of limitations of tracking. Merchants can add trackers that show on their checkout pages to associate ads with sales, and stop targeting browsers that have made purchases. Sometimes this works, but often either A. advertisers don't correctly configure these systems or B. limitations with 3rd party cookies make it so the "I've already bought it" signal never makes it back to the ad network.

What I don't understand is why consumers aren't offered a choice by ad companies to actually just tell them they bought it. I would assume a marketer would love to know feedback from buyers like when/where/why the purchase took place as well as commentary on the product, vendor etc. It seems like a missed opportunity to make the advertisee more empowered and advertiser more informed.

Re: Ask HN: Does targeted advertising work at all?

#123

Post by mcv »

xapata wrote: post #106
youngtaff wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And then there's the example of P&G, or Unilever or some other FCMG company that stopped advertising and saw no change in their business Bob Hoffman's take on advertising e.g. Advertising for Skeptics, is well worth reading - he's an ex-adman who thinks the ad industry and particularly the personalised ad industry is full of shit When you look at the online ad industry it's reasonably clear that the people who are ma…

Coca-Cola's advertising is so good, the sugar water literally tastes better if you know it's Coke, compared with a blind taste test.

So their advertising influences taste, but does it actually influence sales?

Re: Ask HN: Does targeted advertising work at all?

#124

Post by sfe22 »

vegesm wrote: post #104
Rebelgecko wrote: post #37

What is the strongest signal that someone will be buying blinds the near future? a) Someone recently bought blinds b) Someone bought blinds 5 years ago c) Someone hasn't bought blinds ever (maybe they're renting, or just tape newspaper to their windows) Turns out, on average, the answer is a. Either because you're returning blinds you don't like and are in the market for replacements, or because you're doing a home r…

Back of a napkin calculation: showing OP 100 ads of blinds probably costs 0.1$ in the US. The cost of a blind is 100$ (I have no idea, don't live in the US). So if the probability of buying a second blind is at least 0.1% it was worth running the campaign. The fact is, online ads are super cheap.

You can target ads in US at $1 CPM?

Re: Ask HN: Does targeted advertising work at all?

#125

Post by watwut »

Tomte wrote: post #121
watwut wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But what you described does not match my behavior at all. Not the one of my friends. It sounds like logical theory, sure. And it is completely at odds with how I buy things. Or how people I know buy things. > I still maintain that people who have bought a TV yesterday are more likely to buy a TV today than people who haven't bought a TV yesterday. I never ever seen anyone buy second TV shortly after buying first one.…

I'm not married to my theory, "It sounds like logical theory, sure" is pretty much all I'd like to get out of my comment. I simply cannot believe that this superficially irrational behaviour is as irrational as always asserted on HN. The big companies are spending a gazillion dollars on ad tech, and while I believe that there is lots of stupid money floating around, I don't believe it's so obviously irrational. Just…

> Just look at behavioral biology or psychology how much of seemingly irrational or downright stupid behaviour makes a lot of sense when you find the right vantage point.

Yes, but those tend to make you notice that "yep I have actually seen this". This one does not make me think that. Not when it comes to TVs, chairs, beds or other durable items. If we talked about beer or chocolate, sure. Someone who bought beer might want to buy exact same beer.

Someone who bought book might want to buy another book. But, not that exact same book again, that person might want to buy another similar book. With TV, no, nope.

Re: Ask HN: Does targeted advertising work at all?

#126

Post by newaccount74 »

distribot wrote: post #115
Joeri wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are going to have to provide sources for these claims. Freakonomics podcast did an episode on the topic of online advertising and argued largely the opposite of what you’re saying, that there is massive overspending on online advertising, and increases in sales often get misattributed to ad campaigns when they have other causes. https://freakonomics.com/podcast/does-advertising-actually-w...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Targeted_advertising#:~:text=I... Markets are imperfect and irrational, but you really don't think that there is a trillion dollar misunderstanding about the efficacy of the practice? Idk jack about advertising but it seems unlikely to me.

Selling homeopathic medicine is also a huge market, so big that every single pharmacy in Austria has an huge range of homeopathic medicine on display.

Just the fact that people buy ad campaigns doesn't mean that they have any effect at all.

Re: Ask HN: Does targeted advertising work at all?

#127

Post by leobg »

lordnacho wrote: post #84

I gave drop shipping a try at one point, just to learn something about the internet. It more or less paid for itself, without much profit, using just FB ads. So basically if some amateur can break even with barely any understanding of how it works, someone with proper marketing experience can probably do well enough to make a living. The thing is the purchase rate was something like 1%. So it may well be that most pe…

“At one point”. You’re talking 2010? I don’t think an amateur still has a chance of breaking even in 2022. Am I wrong?

Re: Ask HN: Does targeted advertising work at all?

#128

Post by amelius »

Syonyk wrote: post #8
soared wrote: post #5

Yes. Brands, third parties, google, etc have all ran incremental sales lift tests, brand lift studies, customer lifetime value tests, etc and determined how successful tactics are and moved budget accordingly. There is a reason google/etc are worth billions. I’ve posted this comment before, but: 1. It’s hard to tell when someone has bought a product. You buy it at a reseller and the brand will never know. Or you buy…

> It’s hard to tell when someone has bought a product. How about, "I've literally got it in my last-day purchase history on eBay and they keep showing me the same thing and a bunch of related stuff to the item that hasn't even arrived yet, but that they've taken my money for"? ... and then eBay follows me around showing the same stuff on other sites. The thing I've purchased. From eBay. At least, they did, until I go…

Just give me a button "I already own this".

Re: Ask HN: Does targeted advertising work at all?

#129

Post by amelius »

soared wrote: post #5

Yes. Brands, third parties, google, etc have all ran incremental sales lift tests, brand lift studies, customer lifetime value tests, etc and determined how successful tactics are and moved budget accordingly. There is a reason google/etc are worth billions. I’ve posted this comment before, but: 1. It’s hard to tell when someone has bought a product. You buy it at a reseller and the brand will never know. Or you buy…

> Advertisers suppress known buyers but they don’t perfectly match you to all of your devices.

And in case of doubt ... they found that it is more advantageous to them to just keep bothering you.

Re: Ask HN: Does targeted advertising work at all?

#130

Post by [deleted] »

tomc1985 wrote: post #82
lordkrandel wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or maybe I won't and go for the competitor... it often works this way. So many times I see something expensive being advertised and I go for a cheaper one I never heard of. So again, I might be a rare case, but ... I'm not saying that I never bought snacks that are also advertised, because everything is advertised. But I come from a "hard discount" family, and I'm a very hard target, I don't even like being given pre…

I don't think you realize just how insidious advertising is. Repetition builds awareness, which will infiltrate almost any thinking about the product or whatever. Every time you recall an earworm jingle, the ad is serving its purpose. The only way to not be influenced by them is to screen them out.

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