> The question becomes, how can we avoid a 21st century equivalent to the inter war years and their culminating horrors if we are seeing a collapse of the second age of globalisation?
I'm afraid we are past that stage and at the edge of World War 3:
- China is literally following Hitler's footsteps in eradicating Uyghur and Tibetan civilization and people, while saber-rattling to invade Taiwan, the world's most important semiconductor manufacturer. Their economic growth rate is being threatened, not just by the COVID consequences but also by other countries undercutting China on labor costs - which in turn threatens the CCP government as the informal deal of exchanging civil liberties with economic properties is breaking apart, and it doesn't help that under the regime of Xi Jinping the allowed ways of expressing discontent have been met with more and more repression.
- Russia is waging a disinformation and propaganda war against Europe and the US, with the clear goal of driving wedges into our societies. At the same time, the Russian economy is mostly built on oil and gas exports, both of which are threatened - the world is growing less reliant on oil, and Europe is all but forced to diversify its sources for gas. It is realistic that either Putin himself or whoever is going to win the succession fight when he dies (at least openly, Putin has not made any succession plans or named/groomed a candidate) will use the old and tried method of rallying a disgruntled population behind the war against a "common enemy" or a "national worthy cause" (i.e. taking back Ukraine).
- There will be yet-unseen waves of global mass migration caused by climate change and wars in Africa and by poverty and total government collapse in South America, and right now both the US and Europe stick their heads into the sand and build fortresses instead of thinking up a sustainable way on how to deal with a problem that is only growing to get bigger.
- the entire Arabian area is a clusterfuck, even if the Palestine-Israel conflict has been reduced in importance as Israel made formal or informal deals with many of its neighbors. Iran is still developing a nuclear bomb, Turkey's wannabe-dictator Erdogan is struggling against economic depression and political discontent while still aiming to be a regional superpower, the oil sheik countries face (like Russia) the decline of oil money that has historically been used for decades to placate a population wanting democracy or at least basic human rights, and the remnants of the IS are still more than capable to cause serious trouble. Additionally, the US and Israel are constantly running air strikes on terrorists and political enemies (e.g. the Soleimani case), and Iran is engaging in terrorist activities itself.
- speaking of nuclear bombs, no one including China has any idea what to do with North Korea, whose rockets and other arms are clearly capable of devastating destruction. Kim Jong-Un is likely in bad health and people including relatives of questionable loyalty have been purged, while Kim's own children are way too young to assume power.
- globally, the aftermath of COVID and the demands that combatting climate change will cause on societies are going to be yet another destabilizing force, threatening the stability of many societies.
Geopolitically, there are so many areas of tension and conflict that it is almost guaranteed to have major conflict break out in the next two decades. Remember, World War 1 was caused by a terrorist attack of a bunch of pretty much irrelevant Serbian nationalists.