Earlier quoted context omitted.
The thing is that we don't know. What I also have been seeing for a while (like for at least for a decade) that whatever profession seemed to be in danger, whichever profession came out on top on (guess) lists like "these will be replaced by AI soon", each and every one of them thought that it can't happen to them and they all had (and continue to have) explanations, usually involving how that jobs needs human ingenu…
I think programmers are relatively "safe" from AI for the simple reason they are the ones who talk to AI. The job of programmers is to have machines do stuff so that humans don't have to, and of course, they do it for themselves too. Scripts, libraries, compilers, they are just tools to avoid flipping bits by hand. If something like copilot is not embraced by all programmers, it is that it is often less than helpful,…
And my (weak) conjecture is that we may not need an AGI/human level AI for this. In which case we might still want to have some software to be written. But you're right, I'm also not sure that there will be a point where we still want software but have very intelligent machines. And while saying that programmer will be the last technical job doesn't sound like a strong claim, I'd say say it would probably be teachers :)
> The job will evolve, but there will always be someone who tells the computer what to do.
Which may very well be the users, if the machine is able to follow a conversation. Now the thing that may be the showstopper for now might exactly be this: that the machine should be able to hold a context for long enough (over multiple iterations of back and forth communication). As far as my limited knowledge goes, this is something that they have not yet figured out.
The "our kind will always be needed" is exactly the fallacy I was talking about and the one that the practitioners of every intellectual professions seem to have. They think they will be needed to interface between the machine (whether it's a legal or a medical system) and the client. Because they assume that the machine will not be able to communicate only to process the existing knowledge base.
But again, the whole field evolves through surprising leaps. Yep, Copilot is not insanely useful, but already amusing/frightening enough. It seems to pick up context from all over the code base. Sometimes it goes totally wrong, and generates gibberish (I mean generate non existent identifiers that make sense as English expressions but ones that don't exist anywhere in the code). But quite a few times it picks up the intent (the pattern/thought pattern) even if it is spread out over a file (or several ones).