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Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

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Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well all of those point seem to sum up to: "We're getting beat by Tiktok and we're going to catch up by being more like tiktok" That doesn't exactly exude confidence.

Why not? It worked when they copied Snapchat's stories feature.

It’s too late. Nobody is switching from TikTok to Facebook.

Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#242
post #93

Facebook’s core business model appears to be in decline. They don’t have a very diversified revenue stream despite trying various side businesses. This is the market worried that Facebook’s best days are behind it. Facebook is betting the farm on the metaverse stuff but without meaningful financial results that’s not going to placate market concerns over what looks like a downhill future for the core businesses. Face…

I don't get metaverse - they seem to be throwing lots of money and people at it, and hyping it up like it's the future. But from what I've seen so far they've just built VRChat, but worse. It's been done before by other people, it's not a new thing at all (Second Life released almost 20 years ago). This isn't a project that benefits from any of Facebooks strengths - game development companies are much better position…

You are wrong - it’s clear that you do get the metaverse.

Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#243

Really, really curious to see how all this market volatility will affect their talent pool. Losing almost all gains over the last 18 months will certainly cause some people to reconsider their tenure — I know I have since my company's (Not FB) stock has been hammered along with everyone else in the tech growth sector. A lot of golden handcuffs are being unshackled right now

Some of the companies whose stock price has been affected the most are making up for the loss by giving more stock. I’d expect Facebook to do the same to retain their talent if the stock drops significantly.

Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#244
post #143

The data center infrastructure that Facebook (Meta) has is probably in the top 5 in this world (behind only Amazon, Microsoft, Google). They might want to become a cloud infrastructure provider for some side money and buy themselves some time to figure out this Metaverse fantasy :) Hey, AWS started because Amazon wanted to lease out their spare infrastructure capacity.

They have only 2 DC, what exatly can they sell, on top of that they built it for Facebook so how is it marketable?

Make that 18. With custom server designs and some of the best power efficiency out there.

Amazon also had built their DCs for Amazon, and Google for Google, so that's not a valid argument. But it does take a lot of work to turn that into a marketable product (and transform your company culture to support it), and I don't think it makes sense for Meta to go down that route.

Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This would be an interesting but perilous pivot... trying to get into cloud infra at this point seems like an insane idea. What would even be the attraction for company to want to run on FB cloud vs one of the established players that now have a decade plus of real world operations experience from running 3rd party customer workloads? If we are spitballing ideas, If I am Zuck I'm looking at figuring out how to buy Va…

> If I am Zuck All of these growth idea sounds incredibly boring. More likely? Maybe, but incredibly boring. Meanwhile meta is at least sounds pretty interesting. There need to be some fun for him to just not permanently retire on his Hawaiian Island.

>Meanwhile meta is at least sounds pretty interesting.

But does it? It sounds hopeful for someone that has no interest in the real world and only wants to create an imaginary world for themself. For those that actually like to step away from the keyboard and experience other aspects of the world around them, this is just another yawn.

Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This would be an interesting but perilous pivot... trying to get into cloud infra at this point seems like an insane idea. What would even be the attraction for company to want to run on FB cloud vs one of the established players that now have a decade plus of real world operations experience from running 3rd party customer workloads? If we are spitballing ideas, If I am Zuck I'm looking at figuring out how to buy Va…

They can always try the same strategy GCP adopted: huge discounts. If you’re paying retail for GCP, you are getting fleeced.

I just think they're out of time at this point to get in on B2B cloud computing... they may have the know how to build great data centers and stuff but there is a lot of work to go from "FB only" to "Anyone". Let's say they jump into this, what is the earliest they could realistically start taking customers 18 months? Then you need to convince companies to adopt or migrate stuff onto a fledgling new platform. They have near zero experience internally dealing with this kind of enterprise sales and support.

If they wanted to go down that route they needed to start around 2015.

Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#247

The data center infrastructure that Facebook (Meta) has is probably in the top 5 in this world (behind only Amazon, Microsoft, Google). They might want to become a cloud infrastructure provider for some side money and buy themselves some time to figure out this Metaverse fantasy :) Hey, AWS started because Amazon wanted to lease out their spare infrastructure capacity.

Based on my calculations, Facebook has more DC space/power than Google/Amazon/Microsoft. They have around 40 million sq ft of DC space, and likely ~5GW of power. They have 48 buildings in 18 locations, with 47 more under construction.

AWS Data centers are fairly small, ~180,000 sq ft or so generally, us-east-2 is about 900,000 sq ft. us-east-1 perhaps 8 million sq ft.

Google likely has more network capacity, but FB is catching up.

Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly, and unlike, say, Google or Apple, I don't think Facebook has really ever had more than one big payoff idea. If that core business model/idea has seen most of its growth, and may even decline, then there is really not much reason to expect it to find any other way to keep growing. They are big, they are profitable, but they are not going to be growing fast in the future, and one could argue should be valued (…

> unlike, say, Google or Apple, I don't think Facebook has really ever had more than one big payoff idea. Interestingly, by revenue Apple is more of a one-trick pony than Facebook. iPhone sales are fully half their revenue, and almost all of their software income is totally dependent on iPhones as well. Meanwhile at Meta, Instagram revenue is roughly equal to Facebook revenue.

Facebook is all ads, and Apple is much less dependent on the iPhone than it was before, and is continuing in the right direction.

Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that people here (rightly) dislike advertising and having their privacy invaded to target them, not specifically targeted advertising vs. untargeted. As an aside, something happened to my instagram ad-targeting profile a few months ago and the ads that I normally get (tech-industry stuff, photography, art shows, books...) were replaced by what I assume were lowest-common-denominator general population ads (re…

Were you on ios?

No, Android. I dislike notches or holes in screens, so I don't have much choice (I don't have much choice even with Android, but there are a few high-spec phones without those).
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