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Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

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Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#111

Post by paulpauper »

dmurray wrote: post #96
gzer0 wrote: post #59

Here are the results that caused this: - Earnings per share: $3.67 vs $3.84 expected - Revenue: $33.67 billion vs $33.4 billion expected Facebook also missed estimates with user numbers. - Daily Active Users (DAUs): 1.93 billion vs 1.95 billion expected - Monthly Active Users (MAUs): 2.91 billion vs 2.95 billion expected - Average Revenue per User (ARPU): $11.57 vs $11.38 expected Future guidance was the biggest miss…

It's not really plausible that the market can predict Facebook's earnings to within 5% and that such a small miss would cause a rational investor to value Facebook 20% lower. This seems more like a symptom of the market being generally skittish, with a small side of "expected" earnings actually being a low-biased estimate, so it's more like a 10% miss.

it's always like this with earnings reports. pennies can make the difference between 10% moves

Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#112

Post by WalterBright »

paulryanrogers wrote: post #102
WalterBright wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is ironic considering that Apple displaced the former unstoppable phone monopoly. Never mind that Walmart displaced the former unstoppable Sears monopoly, and Amazon did the same to Walmart. IBM which people predicted was unstoppable, was going to rule the world. IBM's descent into irrelevance (I B What?) has been profound. The only interesting thing is people still insist that this time it's gonna be different.

What phone monopoly did Apple disrupt? Nokia? Symbian? Java mobile? Palm? Blackberry?

AT&T

Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#113

Post by distrill »

jiveturkey wrote: post #92
distrill wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's so confusing to me see headlines calling this a "huge earnings miss". Revenue was greater than expected, as was ARPU. I get that the users are under, but this seems pretty far from a huge miss, no?

earnings != revenue

not entirely, but revenue is a huge component of earnings. this might be sort of a miss but not a huge one (from my caveman point of view, but i don't really know what i'm talking about, hence my confusion)

Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#114

Post by errcorrectcode »

nappy-doo wrote: post #42

The vitriol on HN for FB is something else. The earnings for this company are truly staggering. They made 11$/user. Their earnings were up 34% year-over-year – on a base of 29B dollars. They made 10B more this year than they did last year, and the comments in here are all about, "boy Apple fucked them, and Meta suxor!" You people are nuts. While I don't love FB as an entity, as a business they are making fucking bank…

I look at it as a value-investing opportunity. Non-investors and vacillating ones can scoff as I laugh all the way to said bank.

Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#115

Post by magicjosh »

gxs wrote: post #94
magicjosh wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a tech community, not a "making bank" community. You may be looking for a subreddit on investing for the reactions you're expecting.

This is literally an article and comment about Facebook's finances.

To be fair to the other commenters, they're also talking about the nature of the article, but more about what these financials mean for the tracking products, Facebook, and the "tracking industry" broadly.

Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#116

Post by bko »

ohashi wrote: post #58
nappy-doo wrote: post #42

The vitriol on HN for FB is something else. The earnings for this company are truly staggering. They made 11$/user. Their earnings were up 34% year-over-year – on a base of 29B dollars. They made 10B more this year than they did last year, and the comments in here are all about, "boy Apple fucked them, and Meta suxor!" You people are nuts. While I don't love FB as an entity, as a business they are making fucking bank…

We can't be critical of a company that makes people miserable? That weakens democracy? That enables violence and hate? Just because they make a lot of money we should be cheering? Oh wow, they made $11! Let's forget everything else.

Be critical all you want, just don't try to gaslight by saying they're on the verge of collapse and everyone hates them. They're extremely popular and billions log in every day because they apparently get some kind of value out of the product

Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#117

Post by barbecue_sauce »

gxs wrote: post #94
magicjosh wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a tech community, not a "making bank" community. You may be looking for a subreddit on investing for the reactions you're expecting.

This is literally an article and comment about Facebook's finances.

Why does that matter?

Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#118

Post by rossdavidh »

JCM9 wrote: post #93

Facebook’s core business model appears to be in decline. They don’t have a very diversified revenue stream despite trying various side businesses. This is the market worried that Facebook’s best days are behind it. Facebook is betting the farm on the metaverse stuff but without meaningful financial results that’s not going to placate market concerns over what looks like a downhill future for the core businesses. Face…

Exactly, and unlike, say, Google or Apple, I don't think Facebook has really ever had more than one big payoff idea. If that core business model/idea has seen most of its growth, and may even decline, then there is really not much reason to expect it to find any other way to keep growing. They are big, they are profitable, but they are not going to be growing fast in the future, and one could argue should be valued (in terms of earnings/share) more like a utility or a consumer commodity manufacturer, than a technology firm.

Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#119

Post by randomsearch »

nappy-doo wrote: post #42

The vitriol on HN for FB is something else. The earnings for this company are truly staggering. They made 11$/user. Their earnings were up 34% year-over-year – on a base of 29B dollars. They made 10B more this year than they did last year, and the comments in here are all about, "boy Apple fucked them, and Meta suxor!" You people are nuts. While I don't love FB as an entity, as a business they are making fucking bank…

FB represents everything that hackers despise. That is why a site full of hackers despises them.

Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#120

Post by dymk »

mjfl wrote: post #106
JCM9 wrote: post #93

Facebook’s core business model appears to be in decline. They don’t have a very diversified revenue stream despite trying various side businesses. This is the market worried that Facebook’s best days are behind it. Facebook is betting the farm on the metaverse stuff but without meaningful financial results that’s not going to placate market concerns over what looks like a downhill future for the core businesses. Face…

> Facebook is betting the farm on the metaverse stuff and it's an odd bet.

I've been using a roommate's Quest 2 for a few days. A few years ago I was using an OG Oculus. The Quest 2 is so much staggeringly better in every way. So much so that I can see a future where people are spending hours in VR games rather than hours playing games on a monitor.

Yes, there are issues to work out with the headbands, weight, general FPS and battery life, but I finally _get_ it. The amount of badassery you feel as you shoot headcrabs and combine in Half Life: Alyx is hard to describe in words.

Maybe that's not Metaverse persay (is that like, VR chat or something?), but it is the equipment that Facebook is selling, and they've got their own set of games that're pretty fun too.

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