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Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

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Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#51

Post by wutbrodo »

ramesh31 wrote: post #29
librish wrote: post #5

Apple vs ad-tech is a really interesting battle. It shows the immense power Apple has in the consumer market today, where they can affect some of the largest businesses in the US unilaterally. Meta is in a very tricky position in that unless they put up an actual paywall users don’t really have any incentive to allow tracking. But putting up a paywall introduces a lot of friction, not to mention the adverse selection…

>Apple vs ad-tech is a really interesting battle. It shows the immense power Apple has in the consumer market today, where they can affect some of the largest businesses in the US unilaterally. It shows that Facebook positioning itself as a "platform" in the first place is total nonsense. That's why Zuck wanted Oculus to succeed so bad. He knows he is at the mercy of actual platform providers like Apple and Google fo…

I don't see why it needs to be a binary descriptor. They can be a platform that's itself built on platform(s): in fact, most platforms are. Full vertical integration is not that common.

Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#52

Post by closeparen »

zwkrt wrote: post #16
librish wrote: post #5

Apple vs ad-tech is a really interesting battle. It shows the immense power Apple has in the consumer market today, where they can affect some of the largest businesses in the US unilaterally. Meta is in a very tricky position in that unless they put up an actual paywall users don’t really have any incentive to allow tracking. But putting up a paywall introduces a lot of friction, not to mention the adverse selection…

The idea of buying something based on an advertisement and not a need is foreign to me. What is a kind of ad that you consider to be “relevant”? I just block all of them so I might just not be aware of the potential.

The ads I've been genuinely grateful to see and make a purchase through have generally been for concerts and other live events.

Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#53

Post by sorry_outta_gas »

nappy-doo wrote: post #42

The vitriol on HN for FB is something else. The earnings for this company are truly staggering. They made 11$/user. Their earnings were up 34% year-over-year – on a base of 29B dollars. They made 10B more this year than they did last year, and the comments in here are all about, "boy Apple fucked them, and Meta suxor!" You people are nuts. While I don't love FB as an entity, as a business they are making fucking bank…

I get the feeling it's a lot of people bitter they failed the interview process

Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#54

Post by Terr_ »

pavlov wrote: post #7
analogdreams wrote: post #4

Maybe if they spent less time censoring/de-platforming they would have eyeballs to sell those ads to.

People spend more time on an app where they feel comfortable. If FB did nothing to clean up feeds, it would probably drive away both those eyeballs and the advertisers who don't necessarily want their brand to be displayed next to unfiltered user-generated content.

One might argue FB is trying to "clean up" a problem that it caused/promoted in the first place.

Over time they've changed the "feeds" to work on principles that are good for advertisers, "influencers", and viral shit in general... at the expense of regular human contact and normal trusted social circles.

Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#55

Post by donsupreme »

codingkev wrote: post #22
fdgsdfogijq wrote: post #15

This explains the shift to Meta. The current company is basically dying, and so they are going to bet the house on something new. Apple really did a number on them by restricting the data they can collect

Facebook is dying slowly in the developed world, that is true. However it is still growing in emerging markets. And most importantly: FB is still generating tons of cash to fund the other assets. WhatsApp has basically zero monetization right now but billions of users. Huge potential cash cow. Instagram still has a ton of potential for further optimized monetization. Think fully embedded 1-click buying for things lik…

relying emerging markets in developing countries has a lot of inherent risk. For one they have to comply to the local data collection laws or risk being censored or banned outright. Developing nations either see FB as a tool to surveil or a foe to restrict information.

Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#56

Post by mcintyre1994 »

analogdreams wrote: post #18
pavlov wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People spend more time on an app where they feel comfortable. If FB did nothing to clean up feeds, it would probably drive away both those eyeballs and the advertisers who don't necessarily want their brand to be displayed next to unfiltered user-generated content.

don't follow content that makes you uncomfortable. seems like an easy fix any user can implement on their own.

I don't use the main FB app but when I have before it'd constantly show me stuff from pages/people/whatever that I didn't follow. I think it was mostly friends of friends, or stuff friends liked. Have they got rid of all of that now?

Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#57

Post by chaostheory »

omot wrote: post #26

Maybe they'll try launching a Facebook phone that tries to capture Apple's market and it'll fail miserably again. Never underestimate the blue message bubble y'all. That's real leverage.

They're going the wearable route starting with Oculus which is the main reason they missed Wall Street's short term expectations. AR in the form of glasses is their end goal, with Apple trying to cut them off by next year at the latest.

imo Apple will help Meta by helping make XR more socially acceptable, along with Apple's premium pricing which locks some people out. I do not believe VR's current form factor is socially acceptable right now. Even if you remove problems such as cost, tech complexity, and even the toxicity surrounding Facebook's brand; the masses still will not accept it until Apple ships their solution.

Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#58

Post by ohashi »

nappy-doo wrote: post #42

The vitriol on HN for FB is something else. The earnings for this company are truly staggering. They made 11$/user. Their earnings were up 34% year-over-year – on a base of 29B dollars. They made 10B more this year than they did last year, and the comments in here are all about, "boy Apple fucked them, and Meta suxor!" You people are nuts. While I don't love FB as an entity, as a business they are making fucking bank…

We can't be critical of a company that makes people miserable? That weakens democracy? That enables violence and hate? Just because they make a lot of money we should be cheering?

Oh wow, they made $11! Let's forget everything else.

Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#59

Post by gzer0 »

Here are the results that caused this:

  - Earnings per share: $3.67 vs $3.84 expected
  - Revenue: $33.67 billion vs $33.4 billion expected
Facebook also missed estimates with user numbers.

  - Daily Active Users (DAUs): 1.93 billion vs 1.95 billion expected
  - Monthly Active Users (MAUs): 2.91 billion vs 2.95 billion expected
  - Average Revenue per User (ARPU): $11.57 vs $11.38 expected
Future guidance was the biggest miss.

  - Q1 revenue guidance was $27 billion to $29 billion, while analysts were expecting sales of $30.15 billion

Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#60

Post by ojbyrne »

rdw wrote: post #38
chrisco255 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess? Alphabet had a good quarter.

Alphabet isn't quite the same thing, though. They kept the Google name around, and created Alphabet as a kind of holding company. This way they retained the value of their brand while also getting to have a kooky company with a fun name.

There is still a big blue F on facebook.com and the app. It doesn't seem that different to me.
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