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Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

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Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#21

Post by ethbr0 »

librish wrote: post #5

Apple vs ad-tech is a really interesting battle. It shows the immense power Apple has in the consumer market today, where they can affect some of the largest businesses in the US unilaterally. Meta is in a very tricky position in that unless they put up an actual paywall users don’t really have any incentive to allow tracking. But putting up a paywall introduces a lot of friction, not to mention the adverse selection…

It's much more difficult to scale price (user pays more) than it is to scale ad revenue (user sees no difference, more / more-per advertiser).

At the end of the day, that's why Google and Facebook will fight tooth and nail to avoid subscription offerings.

And fundamentally... Facebook's stock should be hammered. They're effectively a legacy platform attempting to milk more revenue from their existing users.

They missed the 2010-2020 opportunity to diversify away from ad-based revenue, and now they look more like 2000s Microsoft, unable to imagine outside their core revenue generator. Which is why their acquisitions have been "new Facebook" instead of "different than Facebook."

Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#22

Post by codingkev »

fdgsdfogijq wrote: post #15

This explains the shift to Meta. The current company is basically dying, and so they are going to bet the house on something new. Apple really did a number on them by restricting the data they can collect

Facebook is dying slowly in the developed world, that is true. However it is still growing in emerging markets. And most importantly: FB is still generating tons of cash to fund the other assets.

WhatsApp has basically zero monetization right now but billions of users. Huge potential cash cow.

Instagram still has a ton of potential for further optimized monetization. Think fully embedded 1-click buying for things like fashion, gadgets, accessories. They could take a decent cut of Shopifys business if executed right.

Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#23

Post by javagram »

analogdreams wrote: post #18
pavlov wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People spend more time on an app where they feel comfortable. If FB did nothing to clean up feeds, it would probably drive away both those eyeballs and the advertisers who don't necessarily want their brand to be displayed next to unfiltered user-generated content.

don't follow content that makes you uncomfortable. seems like an easy fix any user can implement on their own.

Platforms wouldn’t be using algorithmic feeds (that include content a user did not opt into following) if users didn’t prefer it by their behavior.

Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#24

Post by friedman23 »

zwkrt wrote: post #16
librish wrote: post #5

Apple vs ad-tech is a really interesting battle. It shows the immense power Apple has in the consumer market today, where they can affect some of the largest businesses in the US unilaterally. Meta is in a very tricky position in that unless they put up an actual paywall users don’t really have any incentive to allow tracking. But putting up a paywall introduces a lot of friction, not to mention the adverse selection…

The idea of buying something based on an advertisement and not a need is foreign to me. What is a kind of ad that you consider to be “relevant”? I just block all of them so I might just not be aware of the potential.

Just because you block ads doesn't mean you are immune to advertisements. How many of your interests are shaped by media campaigns. Even if you go and choose to buy things based on "need" (which I doubt). How do you choose which to buy of the various things that satisfy your needs? Maybe you go to one of many consumer reporting sites? Maybe you look at reviews? How do you know those are truly unbiased, they aren't most of the time.

Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#27

Post by narrator »

librish wrote: post #5

Apple vs ad-tech is a really interesting battle. It shows the immense power Apple has in the consumer market today, where they can affect some of the largest businesses in the US unilaterally. Meta is in a very tricky position in that unless they put up an actual paywall users don’t really have any incentive to allow tracking. But putting up a paywall introduces a lot of friction, not to mention the adverse selection…

I noticed the ads got worse on Facebook lately. They used to be more relevant, now they're just totally random amazon products that I only click on because I have no idea what they are. I actually used to like the ads on Facebook because they were pretty relevant.

I think the tracking backlash helps the big consumer goods conglomerates and hurts the startup niche product marketers. Look at Dollar Shave Club and all the other consumer products underdogs that were able to take massive marketshare from Proctor and Gamble and the like through smart ad targeting.

Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#28

Post by frostburg »

zwkrt wrote: post #16
librish wrote: post #5

Apple vs ad-tech is a really interesting battle. It shows the immense power Apple has in the consumer market today, where they can affect some of the largest businesses in the US unilaterally. Meta is in a very tricky position in that unless they put up an actual paywall users don’t really have any incentive to allow tracking. But putting up a paywall introduces a lot of friction, not to mention the adverse selection…

The idea of buying something based on an advertisement and not a need is foreign to me. What is a kind of ad that you consider to be “relevant”? I just block all of them so I might just not be aware of the potential.

I don't particularly want to be tracked and generally block as much as it pratically possible (browser plugins, piholes etc.), but I occasionally encounter useful ads (for example an interesting temporary exhibition I wouldn't have known about, the reprinting of a book that I had been looking for or a better offer for some service that I'm already paying for).

Re: Meta shares drop 20% on Q4 earnings miss, weak outlook

#29

Post by ramesh31 »

librish wrote: post #5

Apple vs ad-tech is a really interesting battle. It shows the immense power Apple has in the consumer market today, where they can affect some of the largest businesses in the US unilaterally. Meta is in a very tricky position in that unless they put up an actual paywall users don’t really have any incentive to allow tracking. But putting up a paywall introduces a lot of friction, not to mention the adverse selection…

>Apple vs ad-tech is a really interesting battle. It shows the immense power Apple has in the consumer market today, where they can affect some of the largest businesses in the US unilaterally.

It shows that Facebook positioning itself as a "platform" in the first place is total nonsense. That's why Zuck wanted Oculus to succeed so bad. He knows he is at the mercy of actual platform providers like Apple and Google for everything.

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