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Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

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Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#261

Post by Melatonic »

CSSer wrote: post #250
oblio wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is, you don't even need Tesla "self driving" for that. Adaptive cruise control, tech we've had for what, 20+ years? is more than enough for most highways, it takes out ~80% of the stress/boredom of driving, especially since lane changes are minimal and curves are gentle. The hard parts of driving (aka not highways) are the real problem, as expected. We solved the easy parts in 2000 and who knows if we'll so…

I have a car with adaptive cruise control and lane assist, and most of my morning commute (on days when I go into the office) is driven on the highway. Most of the time I don't turn it on because I'm in a self-perceived hurry to get to work, so I forget. You know what would be really nice? Something that detects when it's safe and reasonable to suggest turning on adaptive cruise control so I use it more. Maybe someth…

I would personally hate for that to be on but I can see your point. Maybe a simple hardware switch for on / off and adaptive cruise control turns on once you are over 65mph for more than 1 minute and will only adapt +-15mph total?

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#262

Post by hedora »

aspenmayer wrote: post #88
NikolaNovak wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I fully support the noble notions and idealistic ideas. But let's make it real, and let's ask a question about the real world: Does that mean that expectation is all automated cars will go exactly the speed limit on the left lane of North American superhighways? If so, those cars will inherently be a danger to life and limb. I don't care about any self-righteous driver who indicates houghtily " I drive speed limit on…

> Does that mean that expectation is all automated cars will go exactly the speed limit on the left lane of North American superhighways? It’s already against road rules to stay in the passing lane when cars behind wish to pass, regardless of the speed limit, or if you’re already driving at it. If cars behind desire to overtake, give way. This is already codified. No need to blame the cars or the self-driving tech. I…

Not in California. Left lane fast, right lane slow isn't the law, and you can pass in whatever lane you'd like.

Studies show that, adjusted for congestion and weather, SF Bay Area drivers have some of the highest accidents per mile in the country.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#263

Post by RyEgswuCsn »

oblio wrote: post #230
RyEgswuCsn wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So it sounds like it's Simpson's paradox [1] at work. I had always wondered why many people are slow to accept self-driving cars despite the claims of them being statistically safer. I think that explains it --- to make consumers confident about the self-driving technologies, it is not enough for them to be able to handle the "easy" kind of driving (e.g. on highway and under relatively good visibility conditions) bet…

The thing is, you don't even need Tesla "self driving" for that. Adaptive cruise control, tech we've had for what, 20+ years? is more than enough for most highways, it takes out ~80% of the stress/boredom of driving, especially since lane changes are minimal and curves are gentle. The hard parts of driving (aka not highways) are the real problem, as expected. We solved the easy parts in 2000 and who knows if we'll so…

For sure. Though even non-tech people are well aware that adaptive cruise control cannot get us to true self driving but "AI" allegedly can.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#264

Post by frosted-flakes »

sebzim4500 wrote: post #173
sandworm101 wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. For a company to program illegality into a product opens them up to untold liability. Normal car companies program their speedometers to read slightly high (5% ish). This keeps them from being into lawsuits by people who claim that an inaccurate speedometer contributed to the severity of a crash. Any car company who programs a car to drive faster than the limit will be either liable or have to pay lawyers in eve…

>Yes. For a company to program illegality into a product opens them up to untold liability. People have been saying this for years yet Tesla is not being sued into nonexistence. Presumably their contracts are written well enough that if the user tells the car to go above the speed limit that's on them.

There's a difference between the driver setting the cruise control above the speed limit, and a computer unilaterally deciding that it should run a stop sign.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#265

Post by AnthonyMouse »

maxdo wrote: post #179
andrepd wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I am not a Tesla-hater though — I just thought it was odd that the company was playing quite so fast and loose with their safety claims. If you're still surprised by this you've not been paying attention to how Telsa operates.

Quoted post unavailable.

> But because other brands release millions of boring cars with 0 innovation they are not criticized.

That's not actually why.

It's because carmakers are huge advertisers. You get on their bad side, they pull their advertising.

Tesla's advertising consists of Elon Musk's Twitter account, so Tesla gets the reporting the others would get if the authors weren't reliant on the subjects of those stories for their paychecks.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#266

Post by [deleted] »

paxys wrote: post #22

I have felt since day 1 that "autopilot is better than the average driver!" is the most misleading fact/statistic in the industry. The "average driver" involved in an accident includes drunk drivers, road ragers, habitual speeders, teenagers, people driving in bad conditions (rain, snow), people driving without sleep and several other risky groups that most people buying Teslas aren't part of. To be worth it, the car…

[deleted]

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#267

Post by oblio »

maxdo wrote: post #247
oblio wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Again volvo is a premium brand, so they don't want to invest more in EV to make your car more safe. Dude, really? https://group.volvocars.com/company/innovation/electrificati...

Volvo's plans all in the future, it's just a commitment. today is there in 2025, tomorrow web designer put another beautiful article with 2030. Gasoline cars is less safe to the same car with the same set of airbags just because of It's physics e.g. lower center of gravity, no engine in the front that can kill you during forward collision, battery at the bottom serve as a protection layer during other type of crashes…

Did you even read the article I linked? I have friends that have the XC40 Recharge...

> In fact tesla is about to release structural batteries cars, that will use battery as part of the cars body, makes it even more safe. Model Y with structural pack will be out in March 2022.

I'll believe that when I see it. How's the Tesla Semi release going? Especially since structural batteries are still an active research topic that actual researchers think will be in mass production in 5 years or more.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#268

Post by tshaddox »

paxys wrote: post #22

I have felt since day 1 that "autopilot is better than the average driver!" is the most misleading fact/statistic in the industry. The "average driver" involved in an accident includes drunk drivers, road ragers, habitual speeders, teenagers, people driving in bad conditions (rain, snow), people driving without sleep and several other risky groups that most people buying Teslas aren't part of. To be worth it, the car…

But that's not really contradictory, is it? If you believe that you're a better driver than autopilot, just don't use it, or buy another car. It's not at all dishonest or deceptive marketing (if the claim is factually accurate, of course).

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#269

Post by kybernetikos »

RyEgswuCsn wrote: post #204
gnicholas wrote: post #2

Underlying study is here. [1] Full disclosure, I co-wrote the piece for The Daily Beast [2] that originally suggested that Tesla's methodology was seriously flawed. I am not a Tesla-hater though — I just thought it was odd that the company was playing quite so fast and loose with their safety claims. 1: https://engrxiv.org/preprint/view/1973/3986 2: https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-tesla-and-elon-musk-exagge...

So it sounds like it's Simpson's paradox [1] at work. I had always wondered why many people are slow to accept self-driving cars despite the claims of them being statistically safer. I think that explains it --- to make consumers confident about the self-driving technologies, it is not enough for them to be able to handle the "easy" kind of driving (e.g. on highway and under relatively good visibility conditions) bet…

> it is not enough for them to be able to handle the "easy" kind of driving (e.g. on highway and under relatively good visibility conditions) better than humans

Is there any evidence that they actually do the easy stuff better than humans? I would want to see it compared with cars of similar age and cost driving on similar roads with similar aged people in control of the vehicle. I'm pretty skeptical that such a comparison would in fact be favourable to Tesla.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#270

Post by macintux »

FireBeyond wrote: post #226
maxdo wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, https://www.tesla.com/safety https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9KR2N_Q8ep8 Tesla roll out cars in generations. So just take a $40k Model 3/Y platform was introduced in 2017 and compare it with any car been introduced that year. My friend bought a BMW in 2019 for similar money, it doesn't have half of that. Maybe you can have them but you have to buy extra packages for extra money. Tesla don't sell safety features…

Automatic emergency braking is a required standard feature in the US. Forward collision warning became standard in 2016 by at least ten manufacturers: Audi, BMW, Ford, General Motors, Mazda, Mercedes-Benz, Tesla, Toyota, Volkswagen, and Volvo. Without speaking to Blind Spot, my Audi does similar intelligent things. If you change lanes next to a vehicle or just in front of it, but you have a positive speed differentia…

> Automatic emergency braking is a required standard feature in the US.

Not currently; I just bought a 2022 Jeep Wrangler that doesn’t have anything of the sort.

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