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Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

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Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#501
post #93
post #8

Based on this image: https://images.ctfassets.net/95kuvdv8zn1v/6h1C7lPC79OLOlddEE... They and their VC backers are clearly betting on the concept that radars + lidar + imaging will be the ultimate successful solution in full self driving cars, as a completely opposite design and engineering philosophy from Tesla attempting to do "full self driving" with camera sensors and categorical rejection of lidar. It is interes…

Cruise CEO here. Our strategy has been to solve the challenges needed to operate driverless robotaxis on a well-equipped vehicle, then aggressively drive the cost down. Many OEMs are doing this in reverse order. They're trying to squeeze orders of magnitude of performance gains out of really low-cost hardware. Today it's unclear what strategy will win. In a few years our next generation of low-cost compute and sensin…

Hey Kyle,

Why did your previous CEO Dan Ammann quit just before this launch?

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#502
post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla pivoted to video only. They originally tried with radar as well. So any such statements by musk are already a pivot.

Their radar removal was baffling. There were rumors (perhaps Musk's tweets?) of Tesla investigating 4D imaging radars to replace their really old Continental radars, but they suddenly decided to remove it altogether. Many have attributed it to chip shortage and yet again Musk using vision-only as an excuse for removal.

My money is on chip shortage. There were some real problems with the radar (like reflections from overpasses) though. I think not being able to ship cars because not enough radars is what forced this decision though (vs. trying to fix the radar and/or the way it's fused with the vision).

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#503

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Specialized things, sure. Agree. But driving has to be almost AGI: an almost entirely open and unrestrained field of endeavor.

Not really. It needs to be more flexible than other current robots, but definitely not AGI.

Really? You think full autonomous that's better than human drivers is not AGI? Perhaps time will tell if your opinion is right.

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#504

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are betting that hardware combination is the fastest to market, given the constraints of today software. When the ml stack is capable of leveraging purely camera sensors, Cruise and others like them, own the fleet and can swap out the hardware. Tesla does not "own" the fleet per se. So perhaps its different bets on which cars will still be on the road when the ML threshold is crossed.

> when the ML threshold is crossed If, not when. Even the most cutting edge research today still pales in comparison to LiDAR.

[deleted]

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#505
post #8

Based on this image: https://images.ctfassets.net/95kuvdv8zn1v/6h1C7lPC79OLOlddEE... They and their VC backers are clearly betting on the concept that radars + lidar + imaging will be the ultimate successful solution in full self driving cars, as a completely opposite design and engineering philosophy from Tesla attempting to do "full self driving" with camera sensors and categorical rejection of lidar. It is interes…

In the end I think self-driving regulations will require depth checking beyond computer vision as it can be tricked on any new situation. Depth checks using LiDAR are extremely efficient up to a football field away down to the direction someone is facing. RADAR is not as good but better than video/flat 2D depth detection though is limited by range, however it does work in weather where LiDAR doesn't and computer visi…

Humans don't actually have any direct depth sensing either. I don't think your ears count because most objects you need to detect while driving aren't really emitting anything your ears can pick up...

So in theory if Tesla had cameras instead of eyes, and those cameras were positioned were the driver's eyes would be positioned, and its computer systems were a human brain, and those cameras has the dynamic range, resolution, auto-focus abilities of the human eyes (or better), then the car could drive just like a human. The problem isn't really that humans have direct depth sensing and the car doesn't, the problem is the vision system of the car is inferior in many ways to the human's vision system, and the brain of the car is far inferior to the human brain.

Better sensing can (maybe) make up for that. If a car can sense all objects on the scene that it may collide with accuracy and far enough in advance then avoiding accidents becomes collision avoidance rather than general intelligence. In ambiguous situations just don't crash into anything and don't go too close to other moving objects. The car might not obey traffic rules perfectly but it probably wouldn't crash ;) If the car occasionally goes through a red light, or doesn't stop in a stop sign, but does so safely (for itself and the surrounding traffic) then it's not a big deal. If the car relies on recognizing a stop sign even if it's behind a tree or partially obscured and failure to recognize the sign leads to a side collision with other traffic or running over pedestrians that's a little bit of a bigger deal.

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#506

Can we just call out how incredibly awesome this is? We might stumble along the way but this is as big as moving from horse carts to cars. Respect to all of you working on self driving cars!

> Can we just call out how incredibly awesome this is? We might stumble along the way but this is as big as moving from horse carts to cars. I find it a bit hard to believe that people aren't more concerned about calling out what exact legal framework this operation is being allowed under. Having a car without a driver in it driving around seems like a massive risk for the drivers, pedestrians, and bicyclists sharing…

I don't know the answers. They're definitely worth figuring out, but the legal questions do not take away from the sheer gall to dream and achieve. Figuring out liability is in the domain of law, which is easy compared to building such engineering marvels. I am sure we can figure it out. Self driving car companies take safety VERY VERY seriously not just for potential legal consequences but because a single incident would make consumers lose trust, which is a death knell for such companies.

For folks who think about Cruise's achievement cynically (not directed at the commenter), please consider what your stance would have been back in the day in the following situations: 1) Cars being introduced to challenge horse carts in the late 1800s and early 1900s 2) Countries like India spending on a Space program while having a considerable population below poverty line, rise of SpaceX 3) The rise of the internet in the 90s with its trivial applications like radio, silly websites etc

If your answer is - oh of course I would cheer each of these, but view self driving cars cynically, good for you.

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#507

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If there's no Elon, there's no SpaceX. Why not? What mystical gift does this one person have that 7 billion other people don't, that permits him and only him to run the company? This is a really unpopular opinion on a web site that exalts founders, but I don't think it really takes much special skill to run a company. Most (but admittedly not all) CEOs are in their position not because of their know-how, but becaus…

I'm sure there are lots of other people out there who could run today's SpaceX as a space cargo trucking company. But Elon deserves the credit for creating two wildly successful companies that revolutionized their respective industries, both in the face of hugely entrenched competitors in highly regulated markets that hadn't seen successful new players in decades, and both as a side effect of his actual goal of getti…

>the credit for creating two wildly successful companies

From reading comments in other similar threads I seen the argument that Elon did not created Tesla, so maybe would be more honest to rephrase your "created" wording, I am wondering how many people know that Elon did not created Tesla so he is assigned the role just because of his big social media presence.

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#508
post #505

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the end I think self-driving regulations will require depth checking beyond computer vision as it can be tricked on any new situation. Depth checks using LiDAR are extremely efficient up to a football field away down to the direction someone is facing. RADAR is not as good but better than video/flat 2D depth detection though is limited by range, however it does work in weather where LiDAR doesn't and computer visi…

Humans don't actually have any direct depth sensing either. I don't think your ears count because most objects you need to detect while driving aren't really emitting anything your ears can pick up... So in theory if Tesla had cameras instead of eyes, and those cameras were positioned were the driver's eyes would be positioned, and its computer systems were a human brain, and those cameras has the dynamic range, reso…

Even with the two camera approach, you are still doing depth checking with a flat computer vision algorithm. Also keep in mind humans can turn their head, and can handle new situations without training. Humans also can tell situations better that includes dimension and movement.

LiDAR is a physical world depth checking system. It will always beat simulated depth checking. It also does dimension and movement better than computer vision. LiDAR is a 360 degree depth check.

Essentially Tesla is trying to do a LiDAR like point cloud from camera inputs only. That may work in many cases, it will be beat by LiDAR in all cases due to the difference of virtual vs physical data.

> The justification for dropping radar does make sense, says Weinberger, and he adds that the gap between lidar and cameras has narrowed in recent years. Lidar’s big selling point is incredibly accurate depth sensing achieved by bouncing lasers off objects—but vision-based systems can also estimate depth, and their capabilities have improved significantly.

> Weinberger and colleagues made a breakthrough in 2019 by converting camera-based depth estimations into the same kind of 3D point clouds used by lidar, significantly improving accuracy. Karpathy revealed that the company was using such a “pseudo-lidar” technique at the Scaled Machine Learning Conference last year.

> How you estimate depth is important though. One approach compares images from two cameras spaced sufficiently far apart to triangulate the distance to objects. The other is to train AI on huge numbers of images until it learns to pick up depth cues. Weinberger says this is probably the approach Tesla uses because its front facing cameras are too close together for the first technique.

> The benefit of triangulation-based techniques is that measurements are based in physics, much like lidar, says Leaf Jiang, CEO of start-up NODAR, which develops camera-based 3D vision technology based on this approach. Inferring distance is inherently more vulnerable to mistakes in ambiguous situations, he says, for instance, distinguishing an adult at 50 meters from a child at 25 meters. “It tries to figure out distance based on perspective cues or shading cues, or whatnot, and that’s not always reliable,” he says.

> How you sense depth is only part of the problem, though. State-of-the-art machine learning simply recognizes patterns, which means it struggles with novel situations. Unlike a human driver, if it hasn’t encountered a scenario before it has no ability to reason about what to do. “Any AI system has no understanding of what's actually going on,” says Weinberger.

> The logic behind collecting ever more data is that you will capture more of the rare scenarios that could flummox your AI, but there’s a fundamental limit to this approach. “Eventually you have unique cases. And unique cases you can’t train for,” says Weinberger. “The benefits of adding more and more data are diminishing at some point.”

> This is the so-called “long tail problem,” says Marc Pollefeys, a professor at ETH Zurich who has worked on camera-based self-driving, and it presents a major hurdle for going from the kind of driver assistance systems already common in modern cars to truly autonomous vehicles. The underlying technology is similar, he says. But while an automatic braking system designed to augment a driver’s reactions can afford to miss the occasional pedestrian, the margin for error when in complete control of the car is fractions of a percent.

https://spectrum.ieee.org/tesla-places-big-bet-vision-only-s...

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#509

Can we just call out how incredibly awesome this is? We might stumble along the way but this is as big as moving from horse carts to cars. Respect to all of you working on self driving cars!

> Can we just call out how incredibly awesome this is? We might stumble along the way but this is as big as moving from horse carts to cars. I find it a bit hard to believe that people aren't more concerned about calling out what exact legal framework this operation is being allowed under. Having a car without a driver in it driving around seems like a massive risk for the drivers, pedestrians, and bicyclists sharing…

Cruise in particular has been around in San Francisco for a while. https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/09/cruise-begins-driverless-t...

> The California DMV, the agency that regulates autonomous vehicle testing in the state, issued Cruise a permit in October that allows the company to test five autonomous vehicles without a driver behind the wheel on specified streets within San Francisco. Cruise has had a permit to test autonomous vehicles with safety drivers behind the wheel since 2015.

I saw their cars a lot while I lived in San Francisco. But back then they had safety drivers and such.

Information about the permit can be found here https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/auto...

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#510
post #8

Based on this image: https://images.ctfassets.net/95kuvdv8zn1v/6h1C7lPC79OLOlddEE... They and their VC backers are clearly betting on the concept that radars + lidar + imaging will be the ultimate successful solution in full self driving cars, as a completely opposite design and engineering philosophy from Tesla attempting to do "full self driving" with camera sensors and categorical rejection of lidar. It is interes…

Can someone explain whether there is a principled reason to not use all the sensors available and choose just cameras?

Think along the lines of:

1. What is necessary vs sufficient.

2. Processing power.

3. Power consumption.

4. Hardware cost. (even if may have decreased now, the cost of initiating the programme years ago)

5. Training cost / volume of data.

The approach that Tesla is using balances all these things. I can't fully explain why it's so controversial, but I suspect this topic attracts folks from autonomous startups who are using very different approaches, people who repeat what they've heard elsewhere, and the usual anti-Tesla folk.

If you want to know whether Tesla's approach can work, first realise that the sensor suites only help with the 'perception' part of the autonomy problem. Then watch some of the Tesla FSD videos on YouTube and check whether the visualisation seems accurate or not. It's certainly not 100% perfect yet, but it's clear to me that the perception part of the problem is mostly solved. The biggest remaining problems seem behavioural.

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