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Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

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Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#481

Post by phkahler »

kvogt wrote: post #93
walrus01 wrote: post #8

Based on this image: https://images.ctfassets.net/95kuvdv8zn1v/6h1C7lPC79OLOlddEE... They and their VC backers are clearly betting on the concept that radars + lidar + imaging will be the ultimate successful solution in full self driving cars, as a completely opposite design and engineering philosophy from Tesla attempting to do "full self driving" with camera sensors and categorical rejection of lidar. It is interes…

Cruise CEO here. Our strategy has been to solve the challenges needed to operate driverless robotaxis on a well-equipped vehicle, then aggressively drive the cost down. Many OEMs are doing this in reverse order. They're trying to squeeze orders of magnitude of performance gains out of really low-cost hardware. Today it's unclear what strategy will win. In a few years our next generation of low-cost compute and sensin…

The challenge I like to bring up is construction zones. How will cars cope when a road is unexpectedly under repair? Traffic is taking turns sharing the left shoulder with a flag man directing you?

Some people I've talked to insist that an up to date map is "all that's needed" and that all such projects will need to be put in the system. Haha, a water main broke and they think people are going to update a database for them?

A traffic light is out and the police are DC directing traffic at an intersection. This will happen inside any given geo-fence eventually.

The list goes on... forever. Tell me how self driving cars don't need full AGI.

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#482

Post by ivalm »

ihattendorf wrote: post #378
ivalm wrote: post #333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it really an "if"? I think it would be pretty safe bet that in 100 years human-quality CV object detection will be solved (note, we both know that it is possible AND this doesn't require AGI). So then it's really a question of when (presumably you don't need the full 100 years).

> note, we both know that it is possible AND this doesn't require AGI Not who you're replying to and not saying you're wrong, but how do we know this?

We know in a sense that very simple animals do it and it doesn’t require decision making (in a sense that LiDAR only helps with perception).

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#483

Post by shaklee3 »

loceng wrote: post #426
nerdwaller wrote: post #419

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm no where near as experienced as you and your team, but that is what I was thinking as I read this. Tesla rather quickly went from the expensive sensors to the camera based setup they have now and it'll be interesting to watch how all this unfolds, safely from my 2006 vehicle with nearly no computers.

There's absolutely nothing stopping Tesla from adding back lidar/other sensors if the technology becomes cheaper or it turns out visual-only isn't accurate enough; Elon has other advantages that no other company is anywhere near competing with though too, and he clearly understands this, he understands his position well - and it's strong. He's also a very agile entrepreneur/engineer and not afraid to pull the trigger…

what's stopping them is fsd has been promised on all these cars without those sensors. taking that away would likely mean a lawsuit

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#484

Post by ivalm »

kylecordes wrote: post #390
ivalm wrote: post #333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it really an "if"? I think it would be pretty safe bet that in 100 years human-quality CV object detection will be solved (note, we both know that it is possible AND this doesn't require AGI). So then it's really a question of when (presumably you don't need the full 100 years).

As an amateur (non-AI-expert) it seems to me that behind every corner is lurking a sub-problem that is AGI-equivalent. I don't see any reason to believe that humans do human-quality object detection without also deploying tremendous contextual understanding of the world. So perhaps it will turn out that a computer needs something similar?

I think decision making in driving is highly contextual, but LiDAR doesn’t help there either. Purely visual field extraction is something even very simple animals can do (presumably which much weaker abstract context processing capabilities).

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#485

Post by notreallyserio »

ZephyrBlu wrote: post #476
belter wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As it can't solve this in 2022 (video at correct time): https://youtu.be/wTybjJj0ptw?t=238 Or even worst, just managing an empty intersection (video at correct time): https://youtu.be/wTybjJj0ptw?t=280 At which point releasing software so bad, becomes a criminal liability? Another one at correct time: https://youtu.be/wTybjJj0ptw?t=652 There are simply no words...Correct time: https://youtu.be/wTybjJj0ptw?t=722 Shoul…

After watching your linked videos I'm actually really impressed with it.

It looks great for an early alpha. It needs a fair amount of improvements before it will be ready to be released to end users, though.

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#486

Post by divbzero »

virgilp wrote: post #432
walrus01 wrote: post #399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True. I actually replied to the entirely wrong comment, should have been one up... I have a great deal more confidence in truly revolutionary things that have been factually delivered by SpaceX (such as 100+ re-uses of a rocket first stage now), and I question how much of that is really due to Musk at all. Maybe Musk as a figurehead. I wonder if all of the Elon fanboys know that much of what's been accomplished at Sp…

I'll bite. Say I'm a Musk fanboy... I can assure you that all Elon fanboys I know are fully aware who Gwynne Shotwell is. Now, your turn: please explain how the following SpaceX accomplishments are thanks to Gwynne Shotwell (other that the hand-wavy "well if she didn't get the contracts none of this would be possible"): - Merlin engine - Vertical landing - Raptor engine ... or, what exactly is the "much of what's bee…

The anonymous “Interviewer” in the last part of that Reddit post was Sam Altman, excerpted from a 20-minute conversation with Elon Musk in 2016 [1] that I found to be interesting even as a non-fanboy.

[1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnBQmEqBCY0

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#487

Post by XorNot »

phkahler wrote: post #481
kvogt wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cruise CEO here. Our strategy has been to solve the challenges needed to operate driverless robotaxis on a well-equipped vehicle, then aggressively drive the cost down. Many OEMs are doing this in reverse order. They're trying to squeeze orders of magnitude of performance gains out of really low-cost hardware. Today it's unclear what strategy will win. In a few years our next generation of low-cost compute and sensin…

The challenge I like to bring up is construction zones. How will cars cope when a road is unexpectedly under repair? Traffic is taking turns sharing the left shoulder with a flag man directing you? Some people I've talked to insist that an up to date map is "all that's needed" and that all such projects will need to be put in the system. Haha, a water main broke and they think people are going to update a database fo…

A decent chunk of this list can be handled by the car coming to a safe stop and signalling that it is unable to proceed and you need to navigate the situation.

I suspect a lot of these could also be handled by that being a remote connection where a human is given the camera input and can indicate how the car should proceed (i.e. broken water main is a road obstruction that won't clear, and the obvious answer is a manual override to mark the road as unusable so the nav system reroutes).

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#488

Post by throwawaylinux »

ryandrake wrote: post #459
alex_sf wrote: post #434

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does it really matter? If there's no Elon, there's no SpaceX. And I say this as someone that doesn't buy into the founder cult.

> If there's no Elon, there's no SpaceX. Why not? What mystical gift does this one person have that 7 billion other people don't, that permits him and only him to run the company? This is a really unpopular opinion on a web site that exalts founders, but I don't think it really takes much special skill to run a company. Most (but admittedly not all) CEOs are in their position not because of their know-how, but becaus…

> Why not?

Check out how Bezos's space company is doing.

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#489

Post by birdyrooster »

dustintrex wrote: post #467
ryandrake wrote: post #459

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If there's no Elon, there's no SpaceX. Why not? What mystical gift does this one person have that 7 billion other people don't, that permits him and only him to run the company? This is a really unpopular opinion on a web site that exalts founders, but I don't think it really takes much special skill to run a company. Most (but admittedly not all) CEOs are in their position not because of their know-how, but becaus…

I'm sure there are lots of other people out there who could run today's SpaceX as a space cargo trucking company. But Elon deserves the credit for creating two wildly successful companies that revolutionized their respective industries, both in the face of hugely entrenched competitors in highly regulated markets that hadn't seen successful new players in decades, and both as a side effect of his actual goal of getti…

The only people who were even competing were eccentric billionaires so let's be clear that he only beat a handful of other people who even had access to attempt the business. It's not that huge of an accomplishment because private space was theorized for a long time but NASA sucked up all the air in the room for the longest time but Elon's timing was just right. He out of the handful of billionaires working on this would get a chance to succeed at scale.

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#490

Post by kortilla »

ryandrake wrote: post #459
alex_sf wrote: post #434

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does it really matter? If there's no Elon, there's no SpaceX. And I say this as someone that doesn't buy into the founder cult.

> If there's no Elon, there's no SpaceX. Why not? What mystical gift does this one person have that 7 billion other people don't, that permits him and only him to run the company? This is a really unpopular opinion on a web site that exalts founders, but I don't think it really takes much special skill to run a company. Most (but admittedly not all) CEOs are in their position not because of their know-how, but becaus…

If all it took was money, spacex would have lots of competitors.
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