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Analysis of Magic Leap 2 at SPIE AR/VR/Mr 2022

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Re: Analysis of Magic Leap 2 at SPIE AR/VR/Mr 2022

#51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems to me like a regular VR headset + dual cameras on the front might be able to get much better results than actual AR?

Even if it did, people won’t wear them in public. Google Glass looked half normal and people were still getting accosted in restaurants.

That doesn't matter for industrial applications though.

Re: Analysis of Magic Leap 2 at SPIE AR/VR/Mr 2022

#53
post #36
post #23

Back in October, when Facebook made a lot of "metaverse" noise, I wrote a thread looking at the history of stereoscopic 3D from the 1850s to the present as a way of explaining why I think facehugger VR is going nowhere. Somebody turned up to complain that going back to the Civil War era wasn't sufficiently big picture for him: "You need a long view. All the serious players are still in the Mercury phase. The Gemini a…

The same Abovitz that did this abomination of a TEDx talk ... https://youtu.be/w8J5BWL8oJY

What the fuck was that?

Re: Analysis of Magic Leap 2 at SPIE AR/VR/Mr 2022

#54

Wow, talk about a tech news blind spot: I honestly though Magic Leap wasn't even around anymore. Last news I heard about them was they burned through $billions, their product woefully (almost fraudulently) failed to meet any of the hype they set out, they sold a handful of units, and then the company folded. How on earth are they still in business?

>I honestly though Magic Leap wasn't even around anymore. Last news I heard about them was they burned through $billions, their product woefully (almost fraudulently) failed to meet any of the hype they set out, they sold a handful of units, and then the company folded. How on earth are they still in business? AR/VR in general has hit the "slope of enlightenment" portion of the hype cycle [0]. Talented people are sti…

In my experience when someone tells me where something is on the hype cycle (especially if it's on the left hand side) I immediately know it's going absolutely nowhere. My hit rate with this heuristic is upwards of 95%.

Re: Analysis of Magic Leap 2 at SPIE AR/VR/Mr 2022

#55
post #47
post #29

Optical AR is a dead end. Passthrough AR with VR goggles and 8K cameras on the outside will be the way that wins.

This seems like a tech-community-only opinion to me, the same thinking that is currently killing Magic Leap. If you want to build a mass-market AR headset, you should have one priority: make it look like glasses. People like eye contact. People don’t like looking like alien telemetry pods are eating their eyeballs. Once you have that, then you can worry about things like resolution, fov, and color reproduction. The o…

> Above all else, Apple doesn’t release products that are dorky.

https://www.apple.com/nz/airpods/

Re: Analysis of Magic Leap 2 at SPIE AR/VR/Mr 2022

#56

Do you think if they focused on creating a monochrome AR display first for applications in engineering and medicine it would have been adopted creating a path for the company to later research and develop a multicolor device? Seems like they lost. Wouldn't it have been better to start simple? They never released a MVP.

There used to be a number of good monochrome AR projectors for industrial and military use last few years.

They look pretty unlike a sleek consumer device, and are expensive, say, $1000 for just the display. For a business, it's peanuts; for a consumer and even prosumer device, it's a pretty significant sum, for a monochrome display not good for gaming.

Re: Analysis of Magic Leap 2 at SPIE AR/VR/Mr 2022

#57

Wow, talk about a tech news blind spot: I honestly though Magic Leap wasn't even around anymore. Last news I heard about them was they burned through $billions, their product woefully (almost fraudulently) failed to meet any of the hype they set out, they sold a handful of units, and then the company folded. How on earth are they still in business?

I remember a very famous VC (who is still amazingly rich and famous) claiming the Magic Leap was a "bigger leap in tech than the iPhone."

Surprised nothing happened to him.

Re: Analysis of Magic Leap 2 at SPIE AR/VR/Mr 2022

#58

Wow, talk about a tech news blind spot: I honestly though Magic Leap wasn't even around anymore. Last news I heard about them was they burned through $billions, their product woefully (almost fraudulently) failed to meet any of the hype they set out, they sold a handful of units, and then the company folded. How on earth are they still in business?

I remember a very famous VC (who is still amazingly rich and famous) claiming the Magic Leap was a "bigger leap in tech than the iPhone." Surprised nothing happened to him.

Wasn't everyone (including Steve Jobs) crazy over the Segway?

Re: Analysis of Magic Leap 2 at SPIE AR/VR/Mr 2022

#59
post #47
post #29

Optical AR is a dead end. Passthrough AR with VR goggles and 8K cameras on the outside will be the way that wins.

This seems like a tech-community-only opinion to me, the same thinking that is currently killing Magic Leap. If you want to build a mass-market AR headset, you should have one priority: make it look like glasses. People like eye contact. People don’t like looking like alien telemetry pods are eating their eyeballs. Once you have that, then you can worry about things like resolution, fov, and color reproduction. The o…

I don't think there is a market for AR on a consumer's face except like a side display like Google Glass. I think the market for AR is in industrial operations, military, etc. where people won't care what they look like.

Re: Analysis of Magic Leap 2 at SPIE AR/VR/Mr 2022

#60

Wow, talk about a tech news blind spot: I honestly though Magic Leap wasn't even around anymore. Last news I heard about them was they burned through $billions, their product woefully (almost fraudulently) failed to meet any of the hype they set out, they sold a handful of units, and then the company folded. How on earth are they still in business?

>I honestly though Magic Leap wasn't even around anymore. Last news I heard about them was they burned through $billions, their product woefully (almost fraudulently) failed to meet any of the hype they set out, they sold a handful of units, and then the company folded. How on earth are they still in business? AR/VR in general has hit the "slope of enlightenment" portion of the hype cycle [0]. Talented people are sti…

I'd like to believe that's true, but has any meaningful progress been made?

VR games seemed to have plateaued in novel immersive experiences - people show off their Oculuses and Vives with the same tech demos.

The Meta VR presentations are embarassingly primitive, marginally better than Second Life from 2 decades ago.

The AR demos I see on Android and iOS (measuring the length table; having a dog run around on top of it) have not improved in fidelity in 3-4 years.

I think what Microsoft is doing with Hololens for the industrial sector is VERY cool, and is a meaningfully significant branch: Having a mechanic receive plans remotely and projected on top of an engine or a door and get overlaid instructions for repair is going to be either revolutionary or a dystopian collapse of skilled trades as every company decides to replace training and high paying trade jobs with Hololenses and remote experts. I'm cynical, but at least it's going somewhere impactful.

But what's happening on the consumer side? Facebook's vision is nauseating. Snapchat, Google, and Apple have gone totally quiet. I assume they're in stealth mode waiting to unleash something and blow our minds? That would be pretty great I suppose.

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