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Analysis of Magic Leap 2 at SPIE AR/VR/Mr 2022

kguttag.com

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Re: Analysis of Magic Leap 2 at SPIE AR/VR/Mr 2022

#11

Post by brownkonas »

sroussey wrote: post #6
tootie wrote: post #5

This is both really impressive and really disappointing. The technology has been refined to an incredible degree but it sounds it's still nowhere near the fidelity that would make it useful. It may the biggest VC money pit in SV.

In Florida, not SV

Funded by SV, vision alignment with SV which is probably more important than where it’s made. However it is certainly impressive that they’re making a lot of progress in a tropical latitude, a feat that hasn’t been replicated by many successful tech companies.

Re: Analysis of Magic Leap 2 at SPIE AR/VR/Mr 2022

#12

Post by kguttag »

echelon wrote: post #2

I've barely cracked the surface of this and it's already one of the best analytical breakdowns of new tech I've seen. Thank you, kguttag! This is obviously a very hot market. Where do you see AR vs VR in 2 years? Five years? Do you think these companies will have supply chain issues? Do you think AR will face adoption issues? It seems like the lack of light, "glowing eyes", eye tracking cutouts, and other issues will…

While the market is "hot" in terms of awareness, it is still a very small market facing major technical challenges. I think AR while useful in enterprise markets (measured in the 100's of thousands a year) is a long way from being ready for the mass consumer market.

I am seeing a lot of progress in some areas and will be publishing an article later this week on them. In particular both Dispelix and Digilens have made considerable progress on the "glowing eyes" issues (Dispelix all but eliminates it). Avegant has a very nice small LCOS light engine that pairs nicely with the Dispelix waveguide.

I think the biggest problem for AR is that the expectations are very high and the physics is very tough. Many physical optical features within a few wavelengths of light were diffraction ruins everything.

Re: Analysis of Magic Leap 2 at SPIE AR/VR/Mr 2022

#13

Post by p1necone »

kguttag wrote: post #12
echelon wrote: post #2

I've barely cracked the surface of this and it's already one of the best analytical breakdowns of new tech I've seen. Thank you, kguttag! This is obviously a very hot market. Where do you see AR vs VR in 2 years? Five years? Do you think these companies will have supply chain issues? Do you think AR will face adoption issues? It seems like the lack of light, "glowing eyes", eye tracking cutouts, and other issues will…

While the market is "hot" in terms of awareness, it is still a very small market facing major technical challenges. I think AR while useful in enterprise markets (measured in the 100's of thousands a year) is a long way from being ready for the mass consumer market. I am seeing a lot of progress in some areas and will be publishing an article later this week on them. In particular both Dispelix and Digilens have made…

It seems to me like a regular VR headset + dual cameras on the front might be able to get much better results than actual AR?

Re: Analysis of Magic Leap 2 at SPIE AR/VR/Mr 2022

#15

Post by binarynate »

kguttag wrote: post #8
binarynate wrote: post #3

Thanks for the article! It's very interesting to see what Magic Leap is up to. Any rumblings about how Microsoft is progressing on Hololens 3? Also, a side note—I develop [Unity libraries for displaying web browsers in 3D][1], including a package for Hololens because I received many customer requests for it. In contrast, I've received relatively few requests to support Magic Leap, which leads me think that the adopti…

Thanks, The rumor mill is that Microsoft has slowed down development of HL3 development with many people leaving. Most famously, Bernard Kress, and optical architect of Hololens 1 and 2 has left for Google. There were very few Magic Leap Ones ever sold. The number I hear is between 5,000 and 10,000 units sold for money with about as many units given away. Hololens 2 seems to be shipping about 70K to 100K units per ye…

Thank you very much for the info! The detail about Kress joining Google is fascinating, as is the contrast in sales numbers for Hololens 2 and ML1. Hololens 2 is the most advanced AR headset that I've used so far, so it's helpful to hear from you that its display quality is poor compared to others. Despite the display quality, I've been blown away by what it's capable of, and I look forward to seeing how this space evolves over the next 5 years.

Re: Analysis of Magic Leap 2 at SPIE AR/VR/Mr 2022

#16

Post by baybal2 »

We designed a number of ar, an vr glasses.

Engineers of most buzzwordy brands don't seem to have had "optics 101" during their engineering education.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28839541

> Holographic waveguides, and such are a dead end development with a substandard image quality which you cannot do anything about, as well as its inefficiency (these waveguides waste 70-90%+ of light.)

> The fundamental problem is that the amount of image light transferred is inversely proportional to the amount of light obscured. — they are extremely inefficient, and there is physically no way around this.

Re: Analysis of Magic Leap 2 at SPIE AR/VR/Mr 2022

#17

Post by moralestapia »

Very nice in-depth analysis, thanks kguttag.

My personal bet on this space is that kura.tech's product is going to be the real deal; but it is exciting to see that the AR field in general is starting to enter its own plateau of productivity and we may start seeing great products soon.

Re: Analysis of Magic Leap 2 at SPIE AR/VR/Mr 2022

#18

Post by excalibur »

> The more I think back about the presentation and other aspects not covered in this article, such as their ability to design and manufacture their own waveguides, the more I agree with the people that think the presentation was more of a “For Sale” sign.

Which differs from other such presentations how?

Re: Analysis of Magic Leap 2 at SPIE AR/VR/Mr 2022

#19

Post by wpietri »

excalibur wrote: post #18

> The more I think back about the presentation and other aspects not covered in this article, such as their ability to design and manufacture their own waveguides, the more I agree with the people that think the presentation was more of a “For Sale” sign. Which differs from other such presentations how?

From the article: "Sometimes a very open presentation is given by a company trying to sell the company."
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