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Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

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Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#181

Post by yupper32 »

ghaff wrote: post #178
yupper32 wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think Karpathy will be fired this year if his team can't achieve at least L4. Ah so Karpathy will be fired this year. Because they're not reaching L4. FSD isn't even L3 yet.

I do expect at least some companies will hit L4 within the decade(?) but it's going to be under limited conditions that won't include urban driving. Which could actually be a very useful capability but isn't the "don't own a car" future that some really are focused on. ------ Level 4 _ High Automation System capability: The car can operate without human input or oversight but only under select conditions defined by f…

Oh sure, L4 within the decade for companies other than Tesla, totally doable. You could argue Waymo and Cruise are already there with geo limitations.

But Tesla within a year with no lidar? Yeah, no. Not happening.

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#182

Post by dang »

desertraven wrote: post #139

The Cruise CEO is here, along with many grand stories of how good/safe their vehicles are. I can’t help but think this thread may be a marketing ploy. If this were the case, is it allowed on HN? Edit: In addition, any negative/challenging/sceptical comment is quickly downvoted.

HN's criterion is whether a post is intellectually interesting, or more precisely whether it can support an intellectually interesting discussion. What's nice about that is you can decide it by looking at the article itself, and the thread—you don't need to know nebulous things like the intentions behind the post. I'd say the current post clears the bar fairly easily. Here are a couple of past explanations about this, in case they're of interest:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20186280

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22871601

As for negative/challenging/sceptical: that depends on the quality of the comment. Thoughtful critique is always welcome. Shallow dismissals and snark are not welcome—not that the target of the criticism always deserves better, but the community deserves better.

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#183

Post by polkadotmatrix »

mygoodaccount wrote: post #151
polkadotmatrix wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://youtu.be/dmvZBiWYkFQ?t=242 “I want to bring my little son along on this ride, but obviously that’s not where we’re at today.” edit: Fixed link

Either you posted the wrong link, or your link was taken down within the last 20 minutes... Lots of Cruise employees in this thread.

https://youtu.be/dmvZBiWYkFQ?t=242

I had an extra slash in the link, I corrected it in the original and above.

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#185

Post by rabuse »

walrus01 wrote: post #134
user3939382 wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My conclusion from years of self-driving, LIDAR, etc. research is that managing medium to heavy precipitation reliably might be impossible. Visual algorithms run into the same problem as human brains, and the size of e.g. rain drops interferes with the frequencies employed by radio techniques. Is anyone aware of any strategies that give us hope in solving this problem?

I know next to nothing about lidar engineering but 60GHz band radars can still function out to several hundred meters in rain. It is significantly attenuated as the rain rate (in mm/hour) increases, but it takes a lot of rain to make it completely useless.

Summers in South Florida will put that to the challenge.

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#186

Post by upbeat_general »

pmorici wrote: post #49
walrus01 wrote: post #8

Based on this image: https://images.ctfassets.net/95kuvdv8zn1v/6h1C7lPC79OLOlddEE... They and their VC backers are clearly betting on the concept that radars + lidar + imaging will be the ultimate successful solution in full self driving cars, as a completely opposite design and engineering philosophy from Tesla attempting to do "full self driving" with camera sensors and categorical rejection of lidar. It is interes…

They are wholly owned by GM are they not? Starting this way doesn’t preclude them taking Tesla’s vision only approach in the future. Even Tesla initially had a radar vision combination approach before moving to pure vision. The real question with whatever technique being used is can they drive the hardware cost low enough that it can be widely deployed.

This is true but there’s a bit more to it. Going vision-only is a big move that requires innovation in a lot of areas and changes huge parts of the stack.

Tesla was already heavily relying on vision before going vision-only.

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#187

Post by belter »

pulse7 wrote: post #155
kvogt wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cruise CEO here. Our strategy has been to solve the challenges needed to operate driverless robotaxis on a well-equipped vehicle, then aggressively drive the cost down. Many OEMs are doing this in reverse order. They're trying to squeeze orders of magnitude of performance gains out of really low-cost hardware. Today it's unclear what strategy will win. In a few years our next generation of low-cost compute and sensin…

Thank you for sharing! Sharing details on how your system works brings confidence to customers...

Did you watch the videos?

Based on the reply to the question: What sets Cruise technology apart from others like Waymo, Tesla...In other words, how was this difficult technical problem, solved in a way others were unable to do so far... And whose reply you can hear here (video at the correct time):

https://youtu.be/ABto5nqWgc0?list=PLkK2JX1iHuzz7W8z3roCZEqML...

Thank you, but wont be volunteering to ride one of these.

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#188

Post by dabeeeenster »

comex wrote: post #60
gitfan86 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is success? Does 50 miles of geofenced and daily mapped streets mean Cruise won self driving? What if Waymo gets to 20k miles of geofenced roads and monthly mapped? What if Tesla gets to the point of one intervention/crash every 100k miles? 10M Miles?

The human accident rate is about one per 500K miles, so if they were able to get in that range, then yes, they would have succeeded; drivers would be able to stop paying attention to the road without putting themselves and others in danger. But the current FSD beta's intervention rate is more like one per 10 miles, judging from some quick googling. I see no particular reason to assume that incremental improvement can…

Not accident rate; crash rate.

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#189

Post by alexchamberlain »

mlindner wrote: post #163

I'm not interested in cars I can't own. This idea that we'll turn cars into some kind of service and convert roads into places filled with company-owned vehicles is completely foreign. At that point it'd be cheaper to have self-driving buses and subways. I can only think this viewpoint comes from people who have only ever lived in cities where car ownership is inconvenient given the lack of personal garages. At the m…

City dweller, raised in a village in the east of England. I got my license 3 months after my 17th and already had a car - I've had a car ever since.

I'd give it up in a heartbeat if hiring a car was easier and more economical, but the reality is that for visiting family over weekends, renting would cost about the same as owning the car full time. The convenience of then having the car ready to go whenever you want it wins out.

I sincerely hope that self driving cars bring in the possibility of renting it for a couple of hours as it drives us to Kent to visit the in laws then drives itself back to London, or simply re-clusters itself into the local network ready to take us back on Sunday evening.

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#190

Post by amelius »

walrus01 wrote: post #75
jeffbee wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do we have to discuss Tesla whenever self-driving comes up? Cruise has this technology. Waymo has it. There are a smattering of niche players out there with various levels of self-driving. Tesla emphatically does not have it. They are not in the race.

I agree, but they sure claim to be. Literally marketed as "full self driving".

Musk is a true car salesman.
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