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Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

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Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#101

Post by gitfan86 »

whimsicalism wrote: post #74
waffle_maniac wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> current FSD beta's intervention rate is more like one per 10 miles Maybe in rural areas? The videos on YouTube are far more than one per 10 miles. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTybjJj0ptw

A helpful link for your perusal: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selection_bias

But are you using confirmation bias to find a cognitive bias that fits here.

But, In all seriousness we don't have access to the data across all 60k FSD users to know what the intervention rate is and how it has been changing over time.

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#102

Post by asdff »

andrewxdiamond wrote: post #16
mattlondon wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least in the UK, one of the most prolific serial rapists was a licensed taxi driver (not even an Uber driver (who get a lot of stick about not being as safe as "real" taxis) - but a licensed and supposedly-vetted London black taxi driver). https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Worboys So I guess safety is a major plus based on that.

I’ve always heard the opposite, that real taxis are significantly more dangerous. Ubers are sent directly to you, and everyone’s identity has been verified. Compare that to flagging down a random taxi, where you have no idea who the person is before you get in the car.

How is the taxi driver's identity also not verified? Are you assuming there could be a random person who isn't employed by a taxi company masquerading as a valid cab? Since you would need a genuine looking physical cab to pull this one off, that seems a lot less realistic than simply pulling up to a bar in any car, telling a drunk girl you are her uber, and driving off before she thinks to check the picture on the app, which is something that does actually happen.

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#103

Post by asdff »

ketzo wrote: post #18
olivermarks wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Totally illogical supposition. I'll bet a lot more taxi drivers have rescued people in trouble than assaulted them, a young female relative of mine was rescued by a passing taxi driver from a dicey situation outside Sheperds Bush tube station. The chances of thugs standing in front of future driverless vehicles like highway robbers to stop them is very high, especially if the predators can see their prey has somethin…

We can do anecdotes back and forth, but many people would absolutely love “Uber but there’s not a stranger in the front seat.”

They will love it until they are leaving from the bar and the last bar attendee left them a big wet bile-smelling present all over the seat. At least when this sort of thing happens on a bus there are other seats you could use.

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#104

Post by robotresearcher »

jowday wrote: post #62
sremani wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The question is do the economics of self-driving cars work when you have to add and integrate all these additional equipment. Correct me, if I am wrong but aren't LIDAR cars supposed to cost you $200K+ ? Tesla is imitating humans in a way that removing LIDAR and relying on the compute to make up for them and build more accurate picture. Also, isn't Cruise owned by GM - who are the VCs here?

What makes you say Tesla is imitating humans? Their motion planning is all traditional robotics logic, not anything learned.

Vision-based driving. Humans don't have lidar sensors.

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#105

Post by asdff »

DavidAdams wrote: post #29
lancesells wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would much rather prefer my own private car than one being driven by someone else. It'll be interesting to see if the level of cleanliness though as most drivers tend to take care of their car because it's their car. If someone throws up in one of these cars does it know or does it just show up to the next pickup?

I'm sure that any of these services are going to depend on customers reporting when a car shows up in an unacceptable condition.

That sounds like a great way to burn reputation among your customers. "Why would I take a self driving car from the bar, the last one was full of puke?"

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#106

Post by polkadotmatrix »

kelnos wrote: post #42
polkadotmatrix wrote: post #30

Amazing considering that he said he wasn’t comfortable putting his own kid in them just a few months ago.

Got a source for that? I searched around and couldn't find anything with him saying that.

https://youtu.be/dmvZBiWYkFQ?t=242

“I want to bring my little son along on this ride, but obviously that’s not where we’re at today.”

edit: Fixed link

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#107

Post by waffle_maniac »

enjoylife wrote: post #54
walrus01 wrote: post #8

Based on this image: https://images.ctfassets.net/95kuvdv8zn1v/6h1C7lPC79OLOlddEE... They and their VC backers are clearly betting on the concept that radars + lidar + imaging will be the ultimate successful solution in full self driving cars, as a completely opposite design and engineering philosophy from Tesla attempting to do "full self driving" with camera sensors and categorical rejection of lidar. It is interes…

They are betting that hardware combination is the fastest to market, given the constraints of today software. When the ml stack is capable of leveraging purely camera sensors, Cruise and others like them, own the fleet and can swap out the hardware. Tesla does not "own" the fleet per se. So perhaps its different bets on which cars will still be on the road when the ML threshold is crossed.

Tesla has really fallen behind. I think Karpathy will be fired this year if his team can't achieve at least L4.

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#108

Post by seanmcdirmid »

37ef_ced3 wrote: post #4

What is the benefit of a taxi being driverless, for the passenger? Is it cheaper?

Cheaper, you don’t have to tip (in the USA where that is required), availability (driver doesn’t need to sleep), and safety (you don’t have to worry about your driver trying to cheat or rob you).

People aren’t getting cheaper. Indeed, this pandemic is showing us just how fragile the labor market is and automation that was too expensive to consider before (like fry robots at caliburger) are now very reasonable upgrades. Uber was great when they cost $40 from the airport, but not $200 given the driver is now considered a full time employee with full benefits.

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#109

Post by petilon »

kvogt wrote: post #93
walrus01 wrote: post #8

Based on this image: https://images.ctfassets.net/95kuvdv8zn1v/6h1C7lPC79OLOlddEE... They and their VC backers are clearly betting on the concept that radars + lidar + imaging will be the ultimate successful solution in full self driving cars, as a completely opposite design and engineering philosophy from Tesla attempting to do "full self driving" with camera sensors and categorical rejection of lidar. It is interes…

Cruise CEO here. Our strategy has been to solve the challenges needed to operate driverless robotaxis on a well-equipped vehicle, then aggressively drive the cost down. Many OEMs are doing this in reverse order. They're trying to squeeze orders of magnitude of performance gains out of really low-cost hardware. Today it's unclear what strategy will win. In a few years our next generation of low-cost compute and sensin…

Congrats on your incredible accomplishment! Thanks for doing this the responsible way. Tesla's approach does not inspire confidence. Starting at the high end, with expensive, reliable tech and slowly bringing the costs (and bulkiness of the equipment) down is the right approach!

Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco

#110

Post by asdff »

soperj wrote: post #9
37ef_ced3 wrote: post #4

What is the benefit of a taxi being driverless, for the passenger? Is it cheaper?

Likely be able to get a taxi anywhere. No discrimination. No 20/25/30% tip suggested. No taking advantage of passengers, no weird routes to tack on extra fees.

Maybe you haven't ridden a cab in the last 10 years, but like any other major industry these days, they do have an app you can use. You can call one up immediately like an uber or schedule it in advance like a traditional cab, it gives you a fixed price up front and a set route, tip can be included in the app how you like. In my experience taking a cab like this is better than ubering to the airport since its the same price any time of day rather than in flux between $50-infinity.
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