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Israel rolls out laser defense system

reuters.com

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Re: Israel rolls out laser defense system

#11

Post by pasabagi »

dexwiz wrote: post #4

This tech will be the end of MAD and the start of WW3. The only thing holding back current super powers from direct confrontation are ICBMs and MAD. Once they can be reliably shot down via lasers, then full scale war is much more likely. I understand the current tech is for much slower, much lower rockets and cruise missiles. But the tech will evolve and get better. Israel is the current test bed for high tech defens…

MAD was a dumb idea in the first place. Everybody has known, since the first world war, that a major power confrontation is very likely to end your nation, even if you win. The French were so demographically destroyed they literally could not raise an army to fight in the second world war. The British were so broke their empire collapsed. The Russian empire, the Austrian empire, the Ottoman empires all collapsed into splinters.

Rational people would not want to be on either side of such a conflict. Except, international relations is fraught with pathological incentives, so peer conflicts happen nonetheless, and less than twenty years after the first world war ended, everybody was gearing up for a second.

The cold war didn't go hot because we were lucky, not because MAD changed the basic dynamics of total war.

Re: Israel rolls out laser defense system

#12

Post by gremlinsinc »

elsonrodriguez wrote: post #7
dexwiz wrote: post #4

This tech will be the end of MAD and the start of WW3. The only thing holding back current super powers from direct confrontation are ICBMs and MAD. Once they can be reliably shot down via lasers, then full scale war is much more likely. I understand the current tech is for much slower, much lower rockets and cruise missiles. But the tech will evolve and get better. Israel is the current test bed for high tech defens…

As long as EMPs are viable MAD is still in effect.

An emp would knock out electrical grids.... sure...

But that isn't annihilation...

Say russia installed this in major cities (rural is acceptable loss), then manufactured super sonic nukes that could deliver a strike in under 5 mins... or even a minute... they could strike many of our nuke sites (not all because of subs) but our major military operation bases, then we strike back from subs, but these take them all out, there's some fallout from atmospheric explosions which may be as bad, but maybe they hoist huge fans to blow it south to the Ukraine or another enemy state...

I don't think EMP's really would deter this sort of outcome... MAD is becoming less and less a thing, super-sonic weapons are the real clencher, because with those it's simply whoever strikes first - if they strike hard enough can disable just about any enemy... so the trick will be not getting to the point of first strike... which...I don't think we can really prevent, not w/ water wars/climate resources diminishing, etc....

The worst war ever will come, we thought globalization could keep people sane but threats to supply chains, and resources, and the existence of the earth itself turn people into desperate people. Desperate people don't always do what's considered 'sane'.

What we'd deem an evil dictator might try and nuke 80% of the population to save the climate, and it probably would succeed but most sane people would say the cost is too great for that ...and they'd be right too.... I mean Thanos had good intentions but horrible means towards them...

A madman who gets elected or inherits the button to the nations military arsenal could decide to burn it all down like Nero...

Re: Israel rolls out laser defense system

#13

Post by yehoshuapw »

manishsharan wrote: post #8
WJW wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Typically you'd use radar to detect incoming projectiles, using multiple detections over time to determine the trajectory of an incoming missile (they are usually unguided and will thus follow a predictable ballistic trajectory).

But would it not be possible to build missiles that can intelligently alter route upon detecting detection ? I recall once working on a auto guided industrial machine based on Motorola 68000 microprocessor that could figure out how to route itself to its destination. So unless you can detect and eliminate the missile almost simultaneously, an intelligent missile could throttle it's velocity etc. to avoid predictable…

while missiles can be built to have irregular routes, this is more important for missile-based defense. there, with the distances and speeds involved it will cause the interceptor to need to counter the irregularities, which will make it need to also be much more advanced. small changes in thrust however (at a later time - and thus higher speed) can cause only so much of a change.

but more importantly - light-based interception can be re-pointed much faster then a missile can change it's own course.

Re: Israel rolls out laser defense system

#14

Post by dexwiz »

pasabagi wrote: post #11
dexwiz wrote: post #4

This tech will be the end of MAD and the start of WW3. The only thing holding back current super powers from direct confrontation are ICBMs and MAD. Once they can be reliably shot down via lasers, then full scale war is much more likely. I understand the current tech is for much slower, much lower rockets and cruise missiles. But the tech will evolve and get better. Israel is the current test bed for high tech defens…

MAD was a dumb idea in the first place. Everybody has known, since the first world war, that a major power confrontation is very likely to end your nation, even if you win . The French were so demographically destroyed they literally could not raise an army to fight in the second world war. The British were so broke their empire collapsed. The Russian empire, the Austrian empire, the Ottoman empires all collapsed int…

Rational people aren’t the ones who start wars. People who grab and claw for power and climbed their way into leadership start wars. I wish the world was lead by rational people, but I don’t think it is.

Re: Israel rolls out laser defense system

#15

Post by throwaway894345 »

dexwiz wrote: post #4

This tech will be the end of MAD and the start of WW3. The only thing holding back current super powers from direct confrontation are ICBMs and MAD. Once they can be reliably shot down via lasers, then full scale war is much more likely. I understand the current tech is for much slower, much lower rockets and cruise missiles. But the tech will evolve and get better. Israel is the current test bed for high tech defens…

> The only thing holding back current super powers from direct confrontation are ICBMs and MAD.

"Trade interests"

Re: Israel rolls out laser defense system

#16

Post by RegnisGnaw »

manishsharan wrote: post #8
WJW wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Typically you'd use radar to detect incoming projectiles, using multiple detections over time to determine the trajectory of an incoming missile (they are usually unguided and will thus follow a predictable ballistic trajectory).

But would it not be possible to build missiles that can intelligently alter route upon detecting detection ? I recall once working on a auto guided industrial machine based on Motorola 68000 microprocessor that could figure out how to route itself to its destination. So unless you can detect and eliminate the missile almost simultaneously, an intelligent missile could throttle it's velocity etc. to avoid predictable…

This is again a money play here, after all everything is a money play.

Iron Beam (this system) is designed to intercept simple rockets, artillery, and etc for cheap. The total cost per shot is estimated at 2000USD overall (including life cycle of the parts, laser, etc) compared to 100000USD for Iron Dome missile alone. It is even more for more advanced stuff like Arrow 2, Arrow 3, or David's Sling (all, including Irom Dome, of which have greater range and capability than the Iron Beam).

The issue with your system is cost.

The rockets that Iran is supplying are unguided ballistic rockets. Artillery is also unguided and ballistic. These are super cheap so its easy and economical to fire a lot of them. This is why Israel wants Iron Beam cause its much cheaper then Iron Dome.

Now lets focus on your solution. The missiles now will need advanced guidance system, maneuvering capabilities (mid course correction, path adjustment), radar and IR warning receivers, and other advanced electronics. None of which are cheap. These components also add weight to the missile, which means bigger missile and more fuel, which adds to the cost of the missile. The need to carry fuel for mid flight adjustment also means heavier missile, which means bigger missile, which means more expensive missile. So your cost per missiles goes up hell of a lot. So now you are limited to the number you can field against Israel. Now its worth it to throw up an Iron Dome against you or possibly an Arrow 2, both which are guided missiles interceptors.

EDIT: Example of the rockets that the Iron Beam is designed to intercept: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fajr-5

Re: Israel rolls out laser defense system

#17

Post by HWR_14 »

dexwiz wrote: post #4

This tech will be the end of MAD and the start of WW3. The only thing holding back current super powers from direct confrontation are ICBMs and MAD. Once they can be reliably shot down via lasers, then full scale war is much more likely. I understand the current tech is for much slower, much lower rockets and cruise missiles. But the tech will evolve and get better. Israel is the current test bed for high tech defens…

Shooting down a rocket going Mach 3 is different from an ICBM going Mach 25.

ICBM research seems to be further along in the US, Russia and India than in Israel. Israel has a fairly accurate, but expensive, missile defense system already.

Re: Israel rolls out laser defense system

#18

Post by foobarian »

gremlinsinc wrote: post #12
elsonrodriguez wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As long as EMPs are viable MAD is still in effect.

An emp would knock out electrical grids.... sure... But that isn't annihilation... Say russia installed this in major cities (rural is acceptable loss), then manufactured super sonic nukes that could deliver a strike in under 5 mins... or even a minute... they could strike many of our nuke sites (not all because of subs) but our major military operation bases, then we strike back from subs, but these take them all ou…

Even with somewhat assured first strike outcomes I still don't see a rational reason for a nuclear power to go ahead with it. What are they going to do afterwards, conquer territory? It's not going to work because nuclear strikes won't magically disappear the (now really angry) population. So what would be the point? And now you lose all the fruits of trade and punish your own people.

Re: an insane leader ordering a strike just for fun, I have faith I guess in the staff who would be actually pushing the buttons. It has happened before.

Re: Israel rolls out laser defense system

#20

Post by HWR_14 »

gremlinsinc wrote: post #12
elsonrodriguez wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As long as EMPs are viable MAD is still in effect.

An emp would knock out electrical grids.... sure... But that isn't annihilation... Say russia installed this in major cities (rural is acceptable loss), then manufactured super sonic nukes that could deliver a strike in under 5 mins... or even a minute... they could strike many of our nuke sites (not all because of subs) but our major military operation bases, then we strike back from subs, but these take them all ou…

> Say russia installed this in major cities (rural is acceptable loss)

You mean like the Russian's existing system is designed? [0]

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A-135_anti-ballistic_missile_s...

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