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Royal Society cautions against censorship of scientific misinformation online

royalsociety.org

891–900 of 970 posts

Re: Royal Society cautions against censorship of scientific misinformation online

#891
post #855

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most nations spend a notable portion of their defense budget, on disrupting opponents via whisper campaigns, and dividing an opponent from within. This has been going on through all of recorded history. Disrupting belief in any important part of your opponent's society, is key. The goal is to cause societal disfunction, an inability to work cooperatively. Why fight a war, if your opponent destructs from within? Or, a…

Oh I completely see the why , I am curious about evidence of the whether .

Not sure on the whether, only the potential.

Frankly, I'd be astonished not.

Re: Royal Society cautions against censorship of scientific misinformation online

#892
post #384

Censoring scientific information to me feels like a continuation of science's replication crisis. The tooling for all classical techniques seem to have been broken as of late, getting rid of critical thinking for free speech, and replication for science.

It's anti-scientific information that's being censored.

Always has been, always will be. The devil’s in your choice of church.

Re: Royal Society cautions against censorship of scientific misinformation online

#893
post #880

Joe Rogan and Dr. Robert Malone podcast. is it misinformation? Dr. Malone certainly have the credentials that none of us have and yet he is censored. is science only one voice? whoever express different opinions should be censored even if that person have the credentials to speak on the matter?

It is misinformation because it is outright wrong. Follow Malone for a couple of weeks and you will see he has nothing else to share but: Vaccines are bad, Vaccines are killing people. - https://www.politifact.com/article/2022/jan/06/who-robert-ma... - https://factcheck.afp.com/http%253A%252F%252Fdoc.afp.com%252... > As we prevent three deaths by vaccinating, we incur two deaths. > "Are we headed for the situation wh…

I listened to the podcast he did with Joe Rogan. 95% of what he talked about was fairly convincing and I agreed with it pretty strongly (or mundane and uncontroversial,). 5% was questionable and less convincing. Based on Malone's history (I think he had a strong, rare allergic reaction to one of his COVID shots that very nearly killed him) it seems likely that he argues in good faith. My prior here is that I already considered the harms in censoring good faith incorrect arguments greater than the benefits of it.

The things he mentioned in the podcast that I agreed with and honestly are pretty convincing:

- censorship of criticism of COVID medicine online is out of control and dangerous. How can you ethically give a drug if you're not allowed to publicly question whether it's safe or not? He gives a ton of examples of very mundane statements by many different people on many different platforms that led to disproportionately negative impacts on their lives relative to the fairly mundane claims they made.

- conflicts of interest exist and are not to be taken lightly. The FDA, CDC, drug companies, are all basically the same people. There is a profit motive to minimize the harms of certain drugs. This is not a hypothetical -- see oxycontin, tobacco, etc. There is reason to be suspicious of "health authorities".

- a lot of people seem to have crazy, obviously wrong/outdated views of COVID that are orders of magnitude off from the actual risks, and are very militant about policing those views and imposing them on others through government action. In some respects it resembles mass hysteria (this is the "mass formation psychosis" meme that went the rounds on the news, where he compared it to the rise of the Nazis. This was taken out of context largely I think, but you should listen to it for yourself).

- the nuance is lost in discussion of covid these days. You're either a science-based smart person or a conspiracy theorist antivaxxer. There is no in-between, and the truth is probably not absolute on one side even if it's heavily leaning on one side.

The thing he mentioned that I disagreed with or found less convincing, but are worth mentioning because they raise points that can and should be addressed:

- Malone's most questionable claim and the one he caught the most flak for is his claim that the risk of serious side effects in some populations as an adverse reaction to the MRNA vaccines can exceed the reduction in risk from covid-19. These are populations like kids, 20-year-olds, or people with a history of allergic reactions to vaccines. He claims that while the data on its own suggests the opposite is true, the side effects of vaccines are underreported due to flaws in the federal vaccine side effect reporting system, and that the deaths by covid are overreported by hospitals.

(He gives a fairly reasonable argument for this, and I think it's worth listening to it for yourself rather than reading the same mostly out-of-context sentences repeated on news articles reporting on the podcast, but after further research I am mostly unconvinced -- the main counterargument that is convincing to me being that over 100 countries have given the MRNA vaccines and you'd expect at least one of them to notice such a serious effect if it existed)

Re: Royal Society cautions against censorship of scientific misinformation online

#894
post #640
post #584

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It wasn't social media who decided that the government should strait up lie to people just because it was the best way (in their opinion) to get the best outcome. A big part of the anti-vaxx movement comes from the fact that the government have made it very clear they will lie and misrepresent data whenever it is politically advantageous for them. If you want a very recent exemple, just look at this interview from so…

Yeah, this is a classic example where social media spreads falsehoods, including mistakes. Here the exec is stretching the definition of the term gene therapy to include things that don't alter genes "mRNA vaccines are an example for that cell and gene therapy". He basically makes a mistake, because the same platform is also used for gene therapy. To use a software analogy, just because both mRNA vaccines and mRNA ge…

Predictably, got the downvotes. Nobody likes corrections and nobody likes elucidations of truth distortion.

Re: Royal Society cautions against censorship of scientific misinformation online

#895
post #384

Censoring scientific information to me feels like a continuation of science's replication crisis. The tooling for all classical techniques seem to have been broken as of late, getting rid of critical thinking for free speech, and replication for science.

It's anti-scientific information that's being censored.

Science as I know and love it offers no basis for labeling anything "pro-" or "anti-scientific", although "unscientific" seems like fair game

Re: Royal Society cautions against censorship of scientific misinformation online

#896

I see the root cause of all this debate as a failure in scientific communication. When it comes to complex scientific decisions with significant impacts on the public, nuanced and detailed justifications are required. Instead, we often get simple declarations written by PR departments at juvenile reading level. This spawns chaotic and poorly conducted debate in all walks of life. What is required is a robust and tran…

"Failure of communication" is a generous way to put it. The leaked Collins and Fauci emails show there was a deliberate decision to trade truth for control of the narrative. [0] This isn't incompetence or messaging being too simple. This is a failure of philosophy: that of "noble lies". Much of our leaders behaviors can be explained through this lens. Masking, natural immunity, lab leak, etc. At every turn, the facts…

Fair enough, but I would consider a failure communication philosophy a subset of communication failure

Re: Royal Society cautions against censorship of scientific misinformation online

#897
post #642
post #638

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just this weekend I was reading that more than 60% of the research into cholesterol is funded by the egg industry. Research funded by industry overwhelmingly shows things in as positive light for industry whether it does or not. This kind of example is common. It tells me its worth questioning research and looking deeper at what ever is released. When someone questions research to look at the merits of what they say.

Exactly. The guy who is an "Ultimate Fighting Championship color commentator, comedian, actor, and former television presenter" doesn't have a conflict of interest, which makes him less biased and more believable.

I'm a fan of Joe Rogan, but the "doesn't have a conflict of interest" argument doesn't seem correct to me. The point of Joe's podcast is that his biases and motivations are transparent, not that they don't exist. Joe is interested, like many people, in contrarians. It's a heuristic that leads him to interesting conversations, and those kinds of interesting conversations are why the podcast is so popular. Oftentimes people who seem one-dimensional in media coverage are shown to be much more than meets the eye when placed in a long-form non-confrontational setting. There is no guarantee of factualness or good faith in any conversation on the podcast, and in many cases he will bring in verifiably crazy people just to see what they're really like -- these are some of the most popular episodes, by the way.

Re: Royal Society cautions against censorship of scientific misinformation online

#898

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Re running the authors code with their data will likely just repeat any methodological issues they had" Yes, but that's useful too. COVID-19 lockdowns largely kicked off in the west due to an epidemiological model from Imperial College London, written over a period of many years by the now notorious Professor Neil Ferguson. When his team uploaded a pre-print of his paper and started sending it to government minister…

"The model generated totally different output every time you ran it, even with fixed seeds." - I remember seeing code takedowns of the model from anti-lockdown people who repeatedly cite this issue. But there is a valid reason for this to happen, and it doesn't mean bugs in the code. If the code is run in a distributed way (multiple threads, processes or machines), which it was, the order of execution is never guaran…

> "The model generated totally different output every time you ran it, even with fixed seeds." - I remember seeing code takedowns of the model from anti-lockdown people who repeatedly cite this issue. But there is a valid reason for this to happen, and it doesn't mean bugs in the code. If the code is run in a distributed way (multiple threads, processes or machines), which it was, the order of execution is never guaranteed.

Then there's literally no point to using PRNG seeding. The whole point of PRNG seeding is so you can define some model in terms of "def model(inputs, state) ->" output, and get the "same" output for the same input. I put "same" in quotes because defining sameness on FP hardware is challenging. But usually 0.001% relative tolerance is sufficiently "same" to account for FP implementation weirdness.

If you can't do that, then your model is not a pure function, in which case setting the seed is pointless at best, and biasing/false sense of security in the worst case.

As you mention, non-pure models have their place, but reproducing their results is very challenging, and requires generating distributions with error bars - you essentially "zoom out" until you are a pure function again, with respect to aggregate statistics.

It does not sound like this model was "zoomed out" enough to provide adequate confidence intervals such that you could run the simulation, and statistically guarantee you'd get a result in-bounds.

Re: Royal Society cautions against censorship of scientific misinformation online

#899
post #840

Earlier quoted context omitted.

BIG conflict of interest… if someone goes on his show stating something like “brushing actually destroys your teeth, you should take X supplement which I developed and read my book” he gets money and viewers interested in this “no brushing” thing. If the conclusion is that you should brush and use toothpaste he doesn’t have a podcast. He’s in the industry of going against “mainstream [ie scientific] knowledge”… which…

> BIG conflict of interest… if someone goes on his show stating something like “brushing actually destroys your teeth, you should take X supplement which I developed and read my book” he gets money and viewers interested in this “no brushing” thing. If the conclusion is that you should brush and use toothpaste he doesn’t have a podcast. This seems to be equally valid for basically any media (using brush and toothpast…

It's different because that's the niche he's focusing on. He's not the only one... Oprah? (to a less sensationalistic extent), Gwyneth Paltrow? Malcom Gladwell also had huge success with books that cherry-pick scientific publications to "prove" things that go against conventional notions in various fields.

We know that traditional media has analogous biases towards celebrity scandals, and towards FUD and polarization in politics, and that bottom feeder broadcasters with no ethics thrive on those.

... He does it with lifestyle / well-being specifically, inviting people that peddle diets, supplements, etc.

Re: Royal Society cautions against censorship of scientific misinformation online

#900
post #898

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The model generated totally different output every time you ran it, even with fixed seeds." - I remember seeing code takedowns of the model from anti-lockdown people who repeatedly cite this issue. But there is a valid reason for this to happen, and it doesn't mean bugs in the code. If the code is run in a distributed way (multiple threads, processes or machines), which it was, the order of execution is never guaran…

> "The model generated totally different output every time you ran it, even with fixed seeds." - I remember seeing code takedowns of the model from anti-lockdown people who repeatedly cite this issue. But there is a valid reason for this to happen, and it doesn't mean bugs in the code. If the code is run in a distributed way (multiple threads, processes or machines), which it was, the order of execution is never guar…

I reckon the PRNG seeding in such a case might be used during development/testing.

So, run the code with a seed in a non distributed way (e.g. in R turn off all parallelism), and then the results should be the same in every run.

Then once this test output is validated, depending on the nature of the model, it can be run in parallel, and guarantees of deterministic behaviour will go, but that's ok.

I didn't develop the model, so can't really say anything in depth beyond the published materials.

I just found it odd at the time how this specific detail was incorrectly used by some to claim the model was broken/irredeemably buggy.

Edit: Actually, in general, perhaps there's one other situation where the seed might be useful, assuming you have used a seed in the first place. Depending on the distributed environment, there's no guarantee that the processes or random number draws will be run in the same order. But it might be that in most cases they're in the same order. This might bias the distribution of the samples you take. So you might want to change the seed on every run to protect yourself from such nasty phantom effects.

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