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Tell HN: We have a responsibility to speak out against blockchain technologies

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Re: Tell HN: We have a responsibility to speak out against blockchain technologies

#101
No you don't have any responsibility to speak out against blockchain technologies, that's for luddites. You can speak out against cryptocurrency, NFTs, false promises and poor implementations of the technology, but to speak out against technology as if you're a point of authority on technology when you're really concerned with economics and society, is insincere to present if you've given consideration to it purely from that tech lens - it's an appeal to authority logical fallacy.

There are plenty of opportunities for people to "lose their shirt" in the current environment, but that's not technology's fault, it is the result of illogical human behavior falling to a scam artist selling something for more than its worth and someone falling for it because they are not informed. It can happen with any pseudo-commodity. If we go back to the popular "Tulip bulb bubble" analogy, if you were a horticulturalist would it be your duty to point out how Tulip bulbs need to be banned for everyone's safety, or would you be stepping outside your domain into that of an economist? Nothing changed functionally about tulip bulbs, except the price and that's not up to the average horticulturist.

By all means, remain skeptical when investing and do your own research, set expectations based on reason. You don't have to hate 100% things about crypto-currency when you really only hate 99% of it, you may find the 1% you do like has to do with purely technical things (technology) vs investor speculation (people). I hate a lot of things about the blockchain space, but technology is certainly not the reason, it's people's relationship/understanding of it and insanity/PR around low value/highly priced things that aren't innovative or useful - the noise + hype if you will is a bit nonsensical at times, not the tech itself, imho.

PS [edit] : And as far as a lot of the problems people have on the blockchain as far as trustworthiness can be solved by blockchain tech itself, it just hasn't happened. It is the "killer dapp" and I've given it some thought, but I won't give it all away unless someone wants to help me build it :)

Re: Tell HN: We have a responsibility to speak out against blockchain technologies

#102

> what a nightmarish step backwards it is for developers concerned with cost, speed, privacy, safety, and ease. 1) There's a lot of research and development into blockchain technology by very smart people. The systems are improving. What technology we'll have 5, 10, or 25 years from now is going to be much different than what exists now. It's a lack of imagination to think that because crypto is "slow" now (and not a…

>There's a lot of research and development into blockchain technology by very smart people.

That is precisely why this is such a societally detrimental technology. The communities that are forming around it are self-reinforcing and suck up both monetary and intellectual capital.

All of this hype about crypto's "potential" is demolished in Dan's excellent work.

>It's a lack of imagination to think that because crypto is "slow" now (and not all of it is by the way), that it will always be the case.

Proof of work combined with the deflationary nature of these currencies is literally the antithesis of efficiency. The system necessarily needs to become less efficient over time because new coins need to become asymptotically harder to mint.

>Maybe a purely decentralized system cannot.

It's clear that the systems that interpret the blockchain (and even the blockchain itself, if wealthy and well-connected folks decide to fork) can be pressured into "censorship."

>if they can prove perfectly transparent and reduce or eliminate corruption?

No system that relies on human inputs can prove to be perfectly transparent or eliminate corruption. The blockchain itself can have provably unbreakable crypto that prevents man-in-the-middle manipulation of data but that in and of itself does not govern the interface between the chain and the people feeding it data.

Re: Tell HN: We have a responsibility to speak out against blockchain technologies

#103
post #32

Like many people back then, I also found the whole proof-of-work / blockchain concept to be interesting from a theoretical computer science / distributed systems perspective. But these days, I can't help but think that we've inadvertently created a paperclip maximizer without even bothering to create an AGI first. Humans are the AGI, and we're going to happily use more and more energy to play this stupid game for as…

The leviathan is loose and it's never going back in a pen until the whole thing collapses under the weight of the fraud. Even legal restrictions on it will only help a little bit as enough moneyed interests are invested in keeping the hype train rolling. I've consulted for several companies trying to do blockchain based non-money things and can't emphasize to them enough that no one outside computer science and math…

Anecdotal, but I hosted a friend and her husband at my place a few months ago (Facebook Product Manager). She was telling me that her team of brilliant engineers are all either leaving to go to TikTok or crypto startups.

Don't kid yourself, people follow the money.

Re: Tell HN: We have a responsibility to speak out against blockchain technologies

#104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> None of the people I know involved with crypto, including miners, daytraders, and HODLers, have not crushed the market in the last nine years. This is what we call survivorship bias. > Also, if mainstream crypto is a Ponzi scheme, how is fiat currency not? This is utter nonsense. Fractional reserve lending means that money enters the supply on loan . It has to be returned to the issuer, and once its returned, it bl…

Should let forex traders know that they can't make money on USD.

They're not making money on USD.

Forex is a highly-leveraged speculative zero-sum game where you're betting against a different trader. It's provably zero-sum like futures trading. Negative sum if you include the rake. The total supply of both sides of that trade remains the same, it's simply a redistribution of wealth from the losing trader to the winning trader.

It's also strictly a pair trade meaning that you're buying one currency and selling a different one at the same time, on the anticipation that you can unwind that for more than you spent to enter it. Forex trades are never just "USD" it's always "USD/YYY."

This is completely different than expecting to earn money by holding USD.

Re: Tell HN: We have a responsibility to speak out against blockchain technologies

#105

why? i think it's the coolest thing ever. anyone can write a contract to automate taking out a loan, investing it, and pulling out the money, develop exotic securities, and bespoke arbitration. anyone can do it regardless of credentials or connections; just a month of learning. pretty darn cool to have unbridled access to a distributed computer.

The answer is pretty straight-forward. Every time we tried this before it collapsed into a giant ball of flame. Nothing crypto is producing is new. We've had stablecoins before in the form of wildcat banks. [1] They were backed at some point by barrels of nails with a few flakes of gold on top, and what little gold there was, was spirited around from bank to bank in front of the inspectors. That ended predictably. We…

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Re: Tell HN: We have a responsibility to speak out against blockchain technologies

#106
I most certainly agree with the general goal. Whether on HN or in person I have spent tens and tens and tens of hours taking Bitcoin/crypto as recently as this week and last. People who know me know I don't like it, and why.

If I had funding, my preferred approach would be a consumer reports modality both in written form and on TV as consumer protection.

There is a palpable difference between seeing criticism as mere jealously or whining --- what 'Pubs and Dems talking heads do to each other on TV or headless voices on AM/FM do which by now is largely tuned out or wholly bought into the determinant of the country either way --- and education.

I do not think people who care about this are whiners; certainly not. But in the context of Trump, Covid, Jan-6, etc. there is a general climate of people posing as victims so they can take offense "righteously" which is an immediate turn off.

Education undercuts all that BS. It's empowering in the good way. If the goal is invest what'd be better? Who better to work with? How better to contextualize investment and money management? And how does that redound to the betterment of you and your loved ones? That's the game we wanna be in.

Re: Tell HN: We have a responsibility to speak out against blockchain technologies

#107
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The word immutable has a meaning. Blockchain does not fit that meaning. Immutable doesn’t mean, “as long as 51% of miners want it to not change”. Immutable doesn’t mean, “doesn’t change unless we get hacked and then we’ll change it”. I could give more examples. Blockchains are not immutable.

The statistical likelihood of a 51% attack happening on the blockchain seems statistically way less likely than a hack targeting our existing financial system. I mean, it's pretty easy why blockchains are considered immutable, you can even code one from scratch in Python in less than 200 lines of code. To control 51% of all those hashing power, an entity would need to power computers that works as much as that, along…

The OP's point was that 51% of miners could agree to a change, and in a system where there are very large players that might not involve that many people.

Re: Tell HN: We have a responsibility to speak out against blockchain technologies

#108

I dunno. If big investors want to dump money into something that has ZERO real-world value and is just FOMO and GFT investing so be it. When people ask me about it I just say it's all a scam and they seem to accept that at face value since they couldn't really figure out what it's all about anyway. Keep your friends retirement funds out of it and let the rest play their game I say. I wish I could make money on the ab…

you can easily short-sell bitcoin if you believe it "won't pan out"

Re: Tell HN: We have a responsibility to speak out against blockchain technologies

#109
I was hesitant yet excited about web 3.0. Decentralization sounds really cool, and it could solve it a lot of problems.

Then I read this article and realized that nothing is decentralized and it's not any better than the status quo: https://moxie.org/2022/01/07/web3-first-impressions.html

Re: Tell HN: We have a responsibility to speak out against blockchain technologies

#110
This comment on Reddit today shook me a bit: https://www.reddit.com/r/TheRaceTo10Million/comments/sem15u/...

The chutzpah has gone so far that anything proto-crypto is the solution to anything else.

This person is dealing with cancer and bankruptcy and some putz comes along and tells him to create some NFTs.

I wanted to scream.

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