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Why two men committing the same crime get different chances at a parole

nytimes.com

11–20 of 44 posts

Re: Why two men committing the same crime get different chances at a parole

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Interesting that they mention the Dell website for decision making. 4 times this year I've decided to purchase a new computer and spent hours trying to figure out what to buy from the Dell website. I have yet to upgrade.

Dell likes to offer a TON of options on everything. You can get the exact computer you want (within specs), but at the cost of having to accumulate the knowledge to make those decisions. This isn't hard if you're a hardware geek, but ask say a software geek a nontechnical person to do it and they'll frequently end up in a world of confusion. Compare to say Apple's site which in many cases has about 2 options per item…

When it was Pentium 2,3, or 4 it made perfect sense. Higher number = better. When it's pentium 2318497X vs AMD 328712Y vs AMD 1238NP32 it's just a garble of random digits. Combine that with graphics cards, motherboard types, connections and all the upsell opportunities/marketing gimmicks Dell attempts and it's a confusing mess of choices. I just want a fast PC for upto £1,000.

edit - I should add this is all after I've been in tech for close to 15 years now. I wonder what it is like to be a non-tech buying a computer.

Re: Why two men committing the same crime get different chances at a parole

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The issue of parole isn't particular interesting. But decision fatigue is intriguing. I think a more interesting pitch for this would be just 'Decision fatigue'.

Why is the issue of parole not particularly interesting to you?

Buying computers is much more interesting than a man's freedom!

Re: Why two men committing the same crime get different chances at a parole

#14
That was really interesting and the title should've been different. I assumed it was the same story from a few months ago about the statistical likelihood of parole on the time of day but it's far more than that.

Three things sprung to mind:

The first is that I've often said I like the food we get at Google because food is, for me, a bunch of decisions I just don't care about. Where to go? What to order from the menu? How much to tip (if appropriate)?

Providing your employees with food seems to directly address decision fatigue.

Google rose to a prominence in an era of portal pages. Yahoo in particular had a home page without hundreds of links. Google presented you with a logo, a text box, two buttons and In the 90s there were lots of experiments with directories. Yahoo had one. Think about this: typing in a search involves one decision. Finding something in a directory involves one decision at each step.

The second thing that occurred to me was Apple. Apple is famous for making decisions for its customers. Many people rail against this lack of control. I personally appreciate it.

Consider: with Windows you need to make lots of decisions like whether or not you need to have security software, what antivirus solution to get, what program to use to play music, etc. With a Mac (and especially an iDevice) most of those choices are made for you.

Similarly the Apple Store is famous for its low number of choices (compare buying a Mac to buying any PC online).

Could it be that this making decisions for customers is part of the intense loyalty many have for Apple products?

The third was the sociological impacts of decision fatigue. Organized religion and government tell people what to do. They give people a set of morals and laws (respectively) to follow rather than forcing people to think through the consequences. Decision fatigue is a new angle to this (at least for me).

Lastly the impacts of poverty were a particularly refreshing angle. As a software engineer I don't really need to make day-to-day tradeoffs in groceries, what I can eat and the like so I just don't suffer from that kind of fatigue.

EDIT: two more interesting aspects to this occurred to me.

The education system in the last few decades has emphasized creativity and expression. This is part of the reason why many countries have abandoned school uniforms. While many laud the benefits of self-expression from, say, high school students being able to wear what they want, what about the consequences in terms of decision fatigue?

High school is stressful for most people. Add to that the stress of deciding what to wear, how to present oneself and so on and you can argue it's a contributing factor to poor decision-making by teens, no?

The second is on leadership. Leaders make decisions, obviating the need for followers to weigh up choices. Could this be part of why so many of us are so eager to follow? I remember a scene from an early Mad Men episode where Don was saying that what most people crave is to be told that whatever they're doing is OK. We crave that affirmation. I wonder at the decision fatigue implications of this.

Similarly, what about relationships? Couples often get to the point of what "we" decided to do. Could part of the advantage of a relationship be that you greatly reduce the number of decisions that you personally need to make?

Re: Why two men committing the same crime get different chances at a parole

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tl;dr anyone please? nytimes.com is blocked over here.

Did you know why dogs are fed sugar after obeying commands for some time? It's because a dose of glucose restores the willpower.

This stays true for humans. In supermarkets, we are offered sweet snacks at checkout—when we have little willpower, the reason being lots of choices we had to make while shopping. So both a) our brain requires more glucose and b) we can't resist sugar snacks anyway. No matter how junk that food might be.

And here's the key— ’Your brain does not stop working when glucose is low. It stops doing some things and starts doing others. It responds more strongly to immediate rewards and pays less attention to long-term prospects.‘

Unfortunately there are areas where decision fatigue might be critical: ‘In midmorning, usually a little before 10:30, the parole board would take a break, and the judges would be served a sandwich and a piece of fruit. The prisoners who appeared just before the break had only about a 20 percent chance of getting parole, but the ones appearing right after had around a 65 percent chance.’

Also, that might be the reason people stay poor: when you don't have a lot of money, you need to make much more tough choices. This depletes people's willpower, and consequently they are worse at other important stuff like education.

How to deal with decision fatigue? ‘People with the best self-control are the ones who structure their lives so as to conserve willpower. Even the wisest people won’t make good choices when they’re not rested and their glucose is low. The best decision makers are the ones who know when not to trust themselves.’

Very interesting article, actually. A lot of interesting stuff there. Is there no workaround to access nytimes from your area?

Re: Why two men committing the same crime get different chances at a parole

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tl;dr anyone please? nytimes.com is blocked over here.

"Extraneous factors in judicial decisions"

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2011/03/29/1018033108

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"The science of justice

I think it's time we broke for lunch…

Court rulings depend partly on when the judge last had a snack"

http://www.economist.com/node/18557594

Re: Why two men committing the same crime get different chances at a parole

#17
The article was written by one of the coauthors of Willpower (http://www.amazon.com/Willpower-Rediscovering-Greatest-Human...). I read this book last week and it was terrific. A great blend of fascinating studies and practical advice. Also, while many pop psych books rehash the same studies over and over, Willpower featured many results that I had not encountered before, like these findings about parole hearings. Highly recommended book.

Re: Why two men committing the same crime get different chances at a parole

#19
post #14

That was really interesting and the title should've been different. I assumed it was the same story from a few months ago about the statistical likelihood of parole on the time of day but it's far more than that. Three things sprung to mind: The first is that I've often said I like the food we get at Google because food is, for me, a bunch of decisions I just don't care about. Where to go? What to order from the menu…

One of the most thought-provoking posts on HN :)

Re: Why two men committing the same crime get different chances at a parole

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post #8

I wonder what the optimal fatigue level is for your potential customer. Is it when they are more worn down and willing to go along with your recommendations or when they are less worn down and they have a more satisfactory experience making choices that are right for them?

I've noticed a lot of car dealers around here are now open until about 9:00 PM.
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