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The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

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Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#461

Post by charwalker »

whynotminot wrote: post #422
astrange wrote: post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We all assumed that governments could/would do a lot more to help. They did. The US gave out trillions in aid, more than any other country except Japan (by GDP). If you were unemployed this was at least $2400/month and more if you had children - the end result is that poverty and child hunger went down in 2020 and 2021, not up like you seem to think, and everyone went shopping so hard while they were home it brough…

It's the strangest disconnect right now between the actual health of the average person's bank account, and the sentiment that everything is terrible. Like GP is talking about insurmountable debt, but the stats show people actually paid down debt/saved money during the pandemic. I can't disagree that doomsday journalism has a played a role here.

Like most safety net items, there is a missing middle that makes too much to qualify for support but needs that support to make ends meet. I was close for most of the pandemic as the household earned just enough to miss most basic support options beyond the food bank but not enough to do more than subsist, which is incredibly depressing. Then all costs are going up so a steeper hill to climb this year barring a raise or new job. My work has great benefits/etc, and before the reorg more opportunity, so it's hard to jump.

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#462

Post by runevault »

dfxm12 wrote: post #294
runevault wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like all the stupid comedy shows, especially in the 80s and 90s, making those episodes about getting a raise and earning less money, did a lot of damage to people's understanding of how taxes ACTUALLY work, and continues to ripple to this day, leading to comments like the one you are replying to.

While there's nothing to fear from taxes, there is the completely separate issue of the benefits cliff [0]. When you just barely make enough to no longer qualify for SNAP or childcare and you lose 100% of those benefits instead of it phasing out based on your pay. This benefit is often worth more than a normal raise, so while you you don't take home less in your paycheck, you do have fewer resources overall. Phasing…

Other benefits is certainly a valid point, from food stamps to scholarships to all kinds of things. And when people talk about those I totally sympathize because my family dealt with those issues of "too much for those scholarships but not enough to be able to afford over a certain tier of school." And when people talk about those things I agree entirely.

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#463

Post by irishjohnnie »

mockingbirdy wrote: post #446
standardUser wrote: post #420

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Money supply has not been shown to increase inflation in recent decades. Supply chain issues have.

Would love to read more about this because my understanding is that the increase in M2 money supply is a big part of the current inflation (very simplified - it's way more complex when looking at money velocity and supply chains in general).

Current inflation is mostly supply-side driven. Having said that, M2's biggest jump in its history was in early 2020 (see https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL). Its slope before and after is more or less the same. However, I don't think inflation will lag it by more than a year.

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#464

Post by robocat »

lkxijlewlf wrote: post #33
rr808 wrote: post #20

I think too its a result of 30 years where employers have had the upper hand in the job market (except perhaps 1999, 2008). Wages have stagnated during these decades, it seems finally maybe wages can catch up.

Wages are going to have to go up. House prices aren't going to come down, rent isn't going to come down, used car prices may come down but not to levels in the before times and only if new car prices don't skyrocket, food won't come down. It's getting very expensive to meet the ends. Wages will have to go up. When ppl think things aren't fair, they revolt.

> Wages are going to have to go up. House prices aren't going to come down, rent isn't going to come down

House prices and rent go up to soak up as much wages as possible. An increase in wages for everyone helps nobody. Bidding on houses is a zero-sum game where we all bid against each other for the amount we can each just afford in interest repayments. Rent has congruent dynamics.

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#465

Post by rustybelt »

ChrisLomont wrote: post #130
citilife wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Actual resignations are up slightly, but the idea that employees are quitting in droves is exaggerated. Official numbers are up ~50% between Nov 2020 and Nov 2021. IMO official numbers dramatically increased as vaccine mandates occurred and under reported. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.t04.htm Nov 2020 -> Nov 2021; percent change by region: Northeast 1.8% -> 2.5% South 2.8% -> 3.5% Midwest 2.3% -> 3.1% Wes…

>IMO official numbers dramatically increased By dramatically increased you mean went from 1.8% during a pandemic when people were afraid to move around to 2.5% as things eased, well in line with historical levels. I think the OP is much more accurate with the statement "the idea that employees are quitting in droves is exaggerated". In fact, if you look back more than the year you picked, you'll see there was a huge…

This is all semantics around what qualifies as a "great" resignation, but don't those charts show people quitting at the highest rate in at least 20 years?

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#466

Post by Wiseacre »

astrange wrote: post #458
Wiseacre wrote: post #453

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Okay now compare the average person's bank account with the average rise in cost of housing.

Cost of housing numbers includes imputed rent, which is money you pay to yourself, and so makes you richer. (if you're a homeowner) IIRC a lot of new people became homeowners in 2020 or relocated somewhere cheaper, which is a positive sign. If rent is going up, that should be fixed by building more housing, which the admin is working on.

It's a positive sign for whom? The economy? Or those struggling to purchase those homes in the first place?

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#467

Post by ukoki »

eli_gottlieb wrote: post #417
makecheck wrote: post #329

At least two things happened here: - The pandemic gave most people an unusually-long period of time at home to help them realize all the things they could have been doing (e.g. spending more time with family, not being stuck in a commute), if only their work had not been sucking up all their time and energy. - Income vs. expenses changed to the point where people couldn’t hope to pay off their debts even if they work…

Also a huge third thing: * Large portions of the middle class and professional class got temporary, permanent, or indefinite semi-permanent Work From Home privileges, leading lots of people who'd been renting small apartments in the cities to buzz off for a larger house out in the burbs. This leads to a lot of consumption of household goods.

Here in the UK at least, those middle and professional classes also saved lots of money due to reduced expenses -- no holidays, no socialising, no commuting etc.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/bank-overground/2020/how-has...

I'm sure many high-earners finally got the "FU money" savings required to risk resigning without having new job lined up.

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#468

Post by bduerst »

MattGaiser wrote: post #209
bduerst wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's no small secret that the world's billionaires saw >50% increase in wealth during the pandemic. https://www.reuters.com/business/pandemic-boosts-super-rich-...

This is very misleading. They took a massive cut in early 2020, so a lot of that is just recovery.

I don't understand this degree of wealth apologism.

If you had just read the article or looked at the report, you'd see that the time frame involved includes the March 2020 crash, which in fact did not cause a massive cut for billionaires, who maintained 2.0% of the worlds wealth throughout.

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#469

Post by chillacy »

mywittyname wrote: post #436
AlexCoventry wrote: post #397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The USA is at 7% inflation. This means the central bank is not doing their job. Is it absolutely clear at this point that monetary policy is to blame? It seems to me that supply-chain issues could still be a major factor.

The country did spend trillions on COVID relief. I don't think that that qualifies as "monetary policy", but it is something Congress did to keep the economy going. I think it's hard to say this didn't contribute to the demand side of the equation, since a lot of that COVID relief was put into the pockets of upper middle class small business owners. I personally know of several that are spending their six-figure payc…

Afaik spending is referred to as “fiscal policy”. It’s hard to saw what “should” or “shouldn’t be” without being aligned on some objective measurement of outcome. After all, for a given policy change there will typically be winners and losers.

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#470

Post by keyboardCowBoy »

irishjohnnie wrote: post #463
mockingbirdy wrote: post #446

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would love to read more about this because my understanding is that the increase in M2 money supply is a big part of the current inflation (very simplified - it's way more complex when looking at money velocity and supply chains in general).

Current inflation is mostly supply-side driven. Having said that, M2's biggest jump in its history was in early 2020 (see https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL ). Its slope before and after is more or less the same. However, I don't think inflation will lag it by more than a year.

My rent went up $300 a month...is that supply-side driven?
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