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The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

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Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#431

Post by andrekandre »

throw_nbvc1234 wrote: post #415
autokad wrote: post #404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They by mandate should have drastically increased interest rates. I disagree, we are having inflation because of supply bottlenecks, not because of demand. Raising interest rates would only make it harder for companies to get finances to ensure supply chains meet demand. That's if you even believe raising interest rates stops inflation. The correlation between interest rates and inflation over the last 40 years is…

> I disagree, we are having inflation because of supply bottlenecks, not because of demand. I've seen this multiple times but what's the underlying evidence for either side. If demand goes up and the supply can't increase to follow, it'll look like a supply issue but ultimately caused by demand. What's ultimately the difference? Is the idea that if the supply chain is scaled for X then moving from X-2 -> X is easier…

  > it'll look like a supply issue but ultimately caused by demand
true, but is demand actually higher than pre-pandemic or is it just returning to previous levels (where broken/damaged supply chain issues are now showing up)?

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#432

Post by Red_Leaves_Flyy »

autokad wrote: post #404
sleepingadmin wrote: post #262

Why is the central bank inflation target typically 2%? Well if you target 0% and any actual result below 0% happens, that's deflation which is a disaster for economies. If inflation is say 10%. Maximum employment is near certainly impossible. Debt will be expensive and the economy crawls to a halt. Who wants to pay 10% interest on their student debt? So where in between do you have a good price stability? It tends to…

> They by mandate should have drastically increased interest rates. I disagree, we are having inflation because of supply bottlenecks, not because of demand. Raising interest rates would only make it harder for companies to get finances to ensure supply chains meet demand. That's if you even believe raising interest rates stops inflation. The correlation between interest rates and inflation over the last 40 years is…

Supply bottlenecks is certainly one way to describe a horrific pandemic response, widespread corporate mismanagement, and the fed printer propping up zombie corps.

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#433

Post by yobbo »

ekidd wrote: post #416
dboreham wrote: post #410

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because everyone was given free money which they spent on things, driving prices up.

Is increased buying power the actual cause of inflation? Or is it disruption in China? Or is it executives choosing to take profits because they can (for some particular reason)? What evidence could be used to distinguish between the various possibilities? I don't actually know, and I'm curious.

One such metric would be Chinese export volumes, in ships and containers. Apparently container ports are clogged in USA.

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#434

Post by claudiulodro »

lostlogin wrote: post #304
melenaboija wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also is even painful to me to think about frivolities and how people spend money when seeing things like this. “Lamborghini had its most profitable year ever during the coronavirus pandemic”[1] Each of this cars may be something like 5 years of average salary in US. [1] https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/lamborghini-had-its-m...

Surely the much smaller individual sums spent on something like Xbox consoles is far greater in the aggregate than a few Lambos? As soon as you get into rating the worthiness of a spend it becomes a bit puritanical. The ironic thing is that I mostly agree with you, but judging others ‘wasted’ spend is too slippery a slope to go down.

Interestingly according to the above article, Lamborghini had $1.93B in revenue on 7430 cars, while it appears XBox had total hardware revenue of $2.29B in 2020. A handful of Lambos does seem to be worth thousands of consoles!

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#435

Post by carapace »

curiousllama wrote: post #207

> But there are growing fears of a wage-price spiral in which workers, seeing rising prices, demand higher pay — and companies, having to pay their workers more, start charging higher prices. These higher prices lead workers to demand even higher pay, leading companies to charge higher prices, and so on. It's the inflationary cycle of nightmares. Can someone explain to me how this works? I'd assume wages to prices ar…

> Can someone explain to me how this works?

It doesn't work.

Labor is a tiny fraction of the total cost of most products. We could double wages at the low end ($30 minimum wage) and not affect inflation significantly.

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#436

Post by mywittyname »

AlexCoventry wrote: post #397
sleepingadmin wrote: post #262

Why is the central bank inflation target typically 2%? Well if you target 0% and any actual result below 0% happens, that's deflation which is a disaster for economies. If inflation is say 10%. Maximum employment is near certainly impossible. Debt will be expensive and the economy crawls to a halt. Who wants to pay 10% interest on their student debt? So where in between do you have a good price stability? It tends to…

> The USA is at 7% inflation. This means the central bank is not doing their job. Is it absolutely clear at this point that monetary policy is to blame? It seems to me that supply-chain issues could still be a major factor.

The country did spend trillions on COVID relief. I don't think that that qualifies as "monetary policy", but it is something Congress did to keep the economy going.

I think it's hard to say this didn't contribute to the demand side of the equation, since a lot of that COVID relief was put into the pockets of upper middle class small business owners. I personally know of several that are spending their six-figure paycheck protection "bonus" on some of the things that are in short supply right now (i.e., houses, cars, remodeling).

In hindsight, these loans should have never been forgiven.

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#437

Post by throw_nbvc1234 »

andrekandre wrote: post #431
throw_nbvc1234 wrote: post #415

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I disagree, we are having inflation because of supply bottlenecks, not because of demand. I've seen this multiple times but what's the underlying evidence for either side. If demand goes up and the supply can't increase to follow, it'll look like a supply issue but ultimately caused by demand. What's ultimately the difference? Is the idea that if the supply chain is scaled for X then moving from X-2 -> X is easier…

> it'll look like a supply issue but ultimately caused by demand true, but is demand actually higher than pre-pandemic or is it just returning to previous levels (where broken/damaged supply chain issues are now showing up)?

exactly, what data would someone look at to decide which came first; the supply crunch or the demand increase. and does the distinction even matter?

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#438

Post by carapace »

Liquix wrote: post #157
MattGaiser wrote: post #118

> "Yet, despite all the quitting and renegotiating, the real wage for the average American worker — meaning the true value of their paycheck after taking into account inflation — fell by 2.4% in 2021." Because most are still not moving. If a worker won't leave under these conditions, there is no reason to ever give them a raise as you don't need it to retain them.

Should it be the worker's duty to constantly be searching for better opportunities and interviewing for new jobs while working - or the employer's duty to provide reasonable CoL raises so employees aren't driven away from the company?

Yes, and yes.

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#439

Post by andrekandre »

wonderwonder wrote: post #378
Consultant32452 wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Fed cannot raise interest rates so high that the federal government becomes unable to afford the interest on the debt. I can't predict exactly what is going to happen, but serious shenanigans are a certainty.

on a positive note though the IRS now requires that all deposits of $600 or more are reported by the banks ensuring that people like servers and small business owners pay their proper share of taxes. So that should help the government pay the debt. We cant have the poor continuing to not pay their taxes and the rich are too expensive to audit. /s Or at least that's the message I am taking from the current administrat…

why should the rich have to pay for everyone else?

if its the poor that are getting handouts from the govt they should be the ones that have to pay it back.

(so goes the logic)

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#440

Post by hi41 »

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #19
duxup wrote: post #2

"The Great Resignation" feels a bit like a phrase that folks have grasped on to and just attach the narrative they want to believe to it. Constant articles and such with very little data. Very frustrating as a reader. The idea that amid a pandemic and such that there are a variety of reasons seems backed up by the data, although I admit that's what I'm inclined to believe / seen.

> Constant articles and such with very little data. Very frustrating as a reader. Actual resignations are up slightly, but the idea that employees are quitting in droves is exaggerated. It’s higher than normal turnover, but the stories are written in ways to suggest that companies everywhere are gutted by employees leaving in bulk. I feel like “great resignation” was deliberately chosen to mislead people into thinkin…

I am concerned that people have enough money for bills. How will they send their kids to college. What happens if there is a serious medical condition and they don’t have medical insurance. What happens when their savings run out after many months of remaining unemployed. I got laid off once and it was horrible being unemployed.
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