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The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

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Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#121

Post by fishtacos »

whiplash451 wrote: post #106
PragmaticPulp wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Constant articles and such with very little data. Very frustrating as a reader. Actual resignations are up slightly, but the idea that employees are quitting in droves is exaggerated. It’s higher than normal turnover, but the stories are written in ways to suggest that companies everywhere are gutted by employees leaving in bulk. I feel like “great resignation” was deliberately chosen to mislead people into thinkin…

Indeed. The Economist had a great article about this in their Dec 2011 edition. The article is behind a paywall, but the gist of it is that two effects explain the uptick in people changing jobs: (1) surges of job demand in new sectors boosted or entirely created by the pandemic (2) people who postponed job changes in 2020 (which hopefully will be considered as the worse year of the pandemic), effectively creating a…

Dec 2021*

- 2011 changes the entire meaning of your post.

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#122

Post by Sohcahtoa82 »

soheil wrote: post #43
lkxijlewlf wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wages are going to have to go up. House prices aren't going to come down, rent isn't going to come down, used car prices may come down but not to levels in the before times and only if new car prices don't skyrocket, food won't come down. It's getting very expensive to meet the ends. Wages will have to go up. When ppl think things aren't fair, they revolt.

So.. inflation?

At the bottom, wages haven't kept up with inflation. They haven't even kept up with the cost of rent.

Most of us here on HN are engineers and our salaries have grown much faster than inflation.

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#123

Post by chrisjc »

thechao wrote: post #4
duxup wrote: post #2

"The Great Resignation" feels a bit like a phrase that folks have grasped on to and just attach the narrative they want to believe to it. Constant articles and such with very little data. Very frustrating as a reader. The idea that amid a pandemic and such that there are a variety of reasons seems backed up by the data, although I admit that's what I'm inclined to believe / seen.

Here's my thought: most employees are quite risk averse, and businesses have been able to take advantage of that in order to negotiate better for wages (better=lower wages). The pandemic essentially forced people into being more comfortable in taking higher risks. It turns out that marginal increases in risk taking translate into wage gains.

I think you're correct, but I would add that inflation (not sure if you meant to imply that was part of the pandemic) has forced people to take higher risks as well.

While in the past an employee may have tolerated below market wages in exchange for the stability (safety) provided by staying still, inflation and its effects have forced their hand. Food, gas, childcare, housing, transportation, etc... have all increased to the point that they've had to make bolder decisions. And that includes looking for better jobs (wages, benefits, work/life balance).

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#124

Post by hideo »

tombert wrote: post #108
InvaderFizz wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can certainly see this as a contributing factor. My own experience is that during the first year of the pandemic I was just cooling my heels in a stable position. Later, the prime factor for me moving on was the whole return to office narrative. I've embraced fully remote and now demand it. As such, I found a new job in Q4 and moved on, for a 25% pay increase as well.

I went the opposite direction; I was at a cool hipster startup, but since I decided to re-pursue academia part time, I switched to a stable megacorp [1] so I would have a consistent bit of funding for the degree for the next 4-6 years. Roughly the same base pay, but way better stock package. I feel like for me, the boredom of COVID made online education about 10x more appealing, and with the articles about WGU poppin…

Completely off topic from the main thread but would you be comfortable sharing how you found and/or convinced an advisor to take you on for a part-time PhD?

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#125

Post by MattGaiser »

bjourne wrote: post #104

"Yet, despite all the quitting and renegotiating, the real wage for the average American worker — meaning the true value of their paycheck after taking into account inflation — fell by 2.4% in 2021." All while the world's elites have doubled or tripled their fortunes. Great Robbery would be a more apt name than Great Resignation.

I would be interested to see the difference between those who did switch and those who didn't.

It could easily be 20% raises for those moving and 1% for those who are not.

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#126

Post by AlwaysRock »

randomdata wrote: post #30
PragmaticPulp wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Constant articles and such with very little data. Very frustrating as a reader. Actual resignations are up slightly, but the idea that employees are quitting in droves is exaggerated. It’s higher than normal turnover, but the stories are written in ways to suggest that companies everywhere are gutted by employees leaving in bulk. I feel like “great resignation” was deliberately chosen to mislead people into thinkin…

Anecdotally in my business I saw effectively no churn in employment through most of the pandemic. Hiring new people was also nearly impossible. Then, towards the end of last year a significant number of workers quit. Finding new people to replace them also was surprisingly easy. I suspect a lot of people were afraid to move on to new opportunities for a while due to the uncertainty of the pandemic. Once enough confid…

Yup. I was working in recruiting during the early part of the pandemic, and it felt stupid reaching out to people. Even if you hated your job were you going to leave and take the chance on a new company? Who knows what could go wrong and next thing you know you don't have healthcare or unemployment during a global pandemic.

But I bet everyone who hated their job before, and then suffered through who knows what god awful shit during the pandemic, starting looking as soon as they felt it was more safe.

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#127

Post by aperson_hello »

slowhand09 wrote: post #29
ashtonkem wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The phrase “great resignation” also implies that people are just quitting, when in reality they’re changing jobs. The unemployment rate is lower than it’s been in a decade (except a month or two here and there), people who are resigning are getting new jobs.

The unemployment rate was lower in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019. It went up when the pandemic kicked in. Here is one (of many) sources I found with a single google search. https://www.statista.com/statistics/193290/unemployment-rate...

4.5% in December, which puts it on-par with 2017 and lower than 2016. U-6, which is probably a better measure of actual slack in the labor market, is lower than any time in recent history except q3/4 2019.

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#128

Post by PascLeRasc »

MattGaiser wrote: post #125
bjourne wrote: post #104

"Yet, despite all the quitting and renegotiating, the real wage for the average American worker — meaning the true value of their paycheck after taking into account inflation — fell by 2.4% in 2021." All while the world's elites have doubled or tripled their fortunes. Great Robbery would be a more apt name than Great Resignation.

I would be interested to see the difference between those who did switch and those who didn't. It could easily be 20% raises for those moving and 1% for those who are not.

I received a 1% raise at my current job. My coworkers who worked evenings and weekends received a "100% positive adjustment of their raise" (2%).

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#129

Post by pm90 »

MithrilTuxedo wrote: post #71
howmayiannoyyou wrote: post #23

> The Great Renegotiation is also a byproduct of inflation. Workers are seeking better pay to keep up with the rising cost of living. Keeping in mind small business is collectively the largest employer and contributor to US output... let's remember the coming rate hikes will greatly reduce available cash to small businesses that operate with credit lines, credit card debt or via home equity lines. That is a LOT of US…

Aren't small businesses best positioned to adapt to these changes? It's not like they're sitting on piles of cash or other investments that are losing value. If costs go up they'll have to raise prices, just as the prices for what they're buying went up due to rising costs further upstream. I figured the pandemic cleared out most of the small businesses that would have failed within five years anyway (half do). I wou…

The problem is on the demand side. If consumers spend less (due to higher cost of borrowing), this makes it difficult for smaller businesses to survive or raise prices (while bigger businesses have access to cheap loans/can reduce workforce etc.).

Re: The Great Resignation? More Like the Great Renegotiation

#130

Post by ChrisLomont »

citilife wrote: post #76
PragmaticPulp wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Constant articles and such with very little data. Very frustrating as a reader. Actual resignations are up slightly, but the idea that employees are quitting in droves is exaggerated. It’s higher than normal turnover, but the stories are written in ways to suggest that companies everywhere are gutted by employees leaving in bulk. I feel like “great resignation” was deliberately chosen to mislead people into thinkin…

> Actual resignations are up slightly, but the idea that employees are quitting in droves is exaggerated. Official numbers are up ~50% between Nov 2020 and Nov 2021. IMO official numbers dramatically increased as vaccine mandates occurred and under reported. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.t04.htm Nov 2020 -> Nov 2021; percent change by region: Northeast 1.8% -> 2.5% South 2.8% -> 3.5% Midwest 2.3% -> 3.1% Wes…

>IMO official numbers dramatically increased

By dramatically increased you mean went from 1.8% during a pandemic when people were afraid to move around to 2.5% as things eased, well in line with historical levels.

I think the OP is much more accurate with the statement "the idea that employees are quitting in droves is exaggerated".

In fact, if you look back more than the year you picked, you'll see there was a huge drop, and the current blip is most likely those people feeling some relief from the pandemic. The rates are no where near out of line historically.

Here's historical data graphed for all 4 regions you listed.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTS00MWQUR

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTS00SOQUR

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTS00NEQUR

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTS00WEQUR

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