Russia doesn't want to invade and take over Ukraine. Yes, they just want to create troubles in the Donbas region. Unlike Crimea, Donbas doesn't bring them any benefit, just more headaches. And of course, given the russian stories during the last five years, the media and their cronies in the governments want to wage a war there.
Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?
21–30 of 70 posts
Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?
#22I think Putin really does not want to have NATO member countries on his border and he is afraid that Ukraine will end up joining NATO or at least becoming very closely aligned with them. He may have hoped to bluff his way to getting concessions to limit further NATO expansion. If that doesn't work he may invade if he thinks the rewards outweigh the risks.
This is true, but I don't think it's likely that NATO would admit Ukraine. For example, look at Georgia's history of trying to join NATO. For over a decade now Georgia has been a huge ally of NATO and Coalition forces (e.g. in Afghanistan) and has tried to join NATO, but the reality is that if NATO were to allow Georgia (or Ukraine) to join NATO it could precipitate a huge armed conflict with Russia.
That being said, it's also possible for NATO to form strategic alliances with countries bordering Russia without explicitly making those countries NATO members. Therefore I think it's in Russia's interest to exert pressure on these countries and make it explicit that partnership with NATO and the West may lead to armed conflict.
Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?
#23My understanding, as a software engineer with an interest in history: Russian history is essentially the story of Russia getting invaded time and time again. The Mongols, Napoleon, Hitler, the list goes on and on and on. This, combined with borders that are difficult to defend (no mountain ranges or other natural barriers), has left the Russian psyche with a sense that their position is always precarious. It seems re…
>To be honest, I don't think Russia is in the wrong here, there is no real reason why Americans should even be involved with this country right up on the Russian border. How would Americans feel if we lost the cold war and Russia started trying to dominate Mexico and Canada?
As a former citizen of Czechoslovakia I could not disagree more. Our countries are still recovering from decades of communism and Russian "help" and to this day Russia tries to exert influence over us. I hope Ukraine joins NATO one day.
Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?
#24Earlier quoted context omitted.
Do you need to write things like "Russia thinks the West ..."? By doing so it sounds as if you group the people living in Russia, together with Putin. But this maybe-invasion would be the deed of a dictator and his men. Not Russia-the-people. The people suffer under Putin.
When I say "Russia" I am talking about the government of Russia, just like how people often use "Americans" when talking about the USG, or "China" when talking about the CCP. I would actually bet that average Russian and American people probably have a lot more in common with each other than they do with their political leaders and elites.
> I would actually bet that average Russian and American people probably have a lot more in common
Yes definitely. Thing is, when someone writes "Russia" but in fact means "Putin and his men", or writes "China" but means "the CCP",
then I'm afraid this pushes the people (ordinary citizens) living in those places,
away from the people in Europe and the US.
Because when you write "Russia" and "China", they likely think about that, as including them -- they'd feel that anything critical, was criticizing them too.
Whilst if one writes "Putin and his men", then, ordinary people living in Russia will clearly see that you don't have anything against _them_ -- that you might even be their friend. And maybe one day they (the people in Russia) and the West together can try to do something about Putin.
Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?
#25MRGA
Great, measured in square meters. (MRGA = "make Russia great again")
Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?
#26Earlier quoted context omitted.
When I say "Russia" I am talking about the government of Russia, just like how people often use "Americans" when talking about the USG, or "China" when talking about the CCP. I would actually bet that average Russian and American people probably have a lot more in common with each other than they do with their political leaders and elites.
> I would actually bet that average Russian and American people probably have a lot more in common Yes definitely. Thing is, when someone writes "Russia" but in fact means "Putin and his men", or writes "China" but means "the CCP", then I'm afraid this pushes the people (ordinary citizens) living in those places, away from the people in Europe and the US. Because when you write "Russia" and "China", they likely think…
I see your point, and that's totally fair. I'll make a better effort to be specific about this from now on.
Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?
#27I wish I could recall the reference (as the below is not my original thinking), but I’ve Heard something along the following postulated: 1. Russia has a deep seated psychological worry about invasion from the west across the open plains of Eastern Europe (Poland/Ukraine) (Napoleanic wars, Ww 1, ww2) so creating a buffer is of geostrategic importance (old Soviet Warsaw Pact / satellite states. Merely having a nato mem…
Russia has been agressor for the last 200 years. Yes, including WW2, when in 1939 it together with their Nazi ally divided Europe and took half of Poland. Only after their "ally" (out of the "fear" as well) decided to attack the narrative changed to present the regime as an innocent victim. That's typical Russian propaganda that they need to protect their borders and their minorities, which is being used to justify t…
Not sure what people don't like in your answer, probably the truth. Bordering with Russia always includes some tragic history - occupation of the Baltic States and Romania, Winter War, occupation of Poland, occupation of the whole Eastern Europe, brutal oppression of Hungary's revolution 1959 and Czechoslovakia in 1968. Moldova 1992, Georgia 2008, and now Ukraine. At this moment Russia evolved into a completely totalitarian fascist state, while the West still plays Appeasement Policy with it, just like with Germany in 1938-39.
Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?
#28My understanding, as a software engineer with an interest in history: Russian history is essentially the story of Russia getting invaded time and time again. The Mongols, Napoleon, Hitler, the list goes on and on and on. This, combined with borders that are difficult to defend (no mountain ranges or other natural barriers), has left the Russian psyche with a sense that their position is always precarious. It seems re…
>To be honest, I don't think Russia is in the wrong here, there is no real reason why Americans should even be involved with this country right up on the Russian border. How would Americans feel if we lost the cold war and Russia started trying to dominate Mexico and Canada? As a former citizen of Czechoslovakia I could not disagree more. Our countries are still recovering from decades of communism and Russian "help"…
Look, I get that Russia is not exactly kind to its neighbors, I have some Polish relatives who tell me all about that. But I'm just not really sure that the US has any business being in Russia's "near abroad" anymore. The US isn't 50% of the world GDP anymore, and is politically paralyzed - I don't think we have the appetite nor the finances for another gigantic war.
Now this is controversial, so don't take this the wrong way, but I'd feel a lot better about the US defending Europe if Europe would also shoulder some of the burden. I honestly don't see why the US needs to spend so much on this project, while other NATO members are unable to even meet the 2% spending commitment. As a regular American it just kind of seems like Europe is riding on our backs with this. As much as I love Europe, Europeans, and European culture, I can't get behind spending tax dollars on defending countries that don't care enough to spend money to defend themselves.
Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?
#29Earlier quoted context omitted.
>To be honest, I don't think Russia is in the wrong here, there is no real reason why Americans should even be involved with this country right up on the Russian border. How would Americans feel if we lost the cold war and Russia started trying to dominate Mexico and Canada? As a former citizen of Czechoslovakia I could not disagree more. Our countries are still recovering from decades of communism and Russian "help"…
Look, I get that Russia is not exactly kind to its neighbors, I have some Polish relatives who tell me all about that. But I'm just not really sure that the US has any business being in Russia's "near abroad" anymore. The US isn't 50% of the world GDP anymore, and is politically paralyzed - I don't think we have the appetite nor the finances for another gigantic war. Now this is controversial, so don't take this the…
I actually agree with that. I think Europe should strive to meet its 2% spending commitment. There have been talks about a joint European army as well. I am no expert in these matters but I am of the impression that Europe should be more committed to defending itself.
Re: Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?
#30My understanding, as a software engineer with an interest in history: Russian history is essentially the story of Russia getting invaded time and time again. The Mongols, Napoleon, Hitler, the list goes on and on and on. This, combined with borders that are difficult to defend (no mountain ranges or other natural barriers), has left the Russian psyche with a sense that their position is always precarious. It seems re…
Russian history is essentially a history of occupying and integrating bordering countries into the empire. That was the way to expand from several regions around Moscow to the empire's enormous pre-revolution territory in the beginning of XX century. You may google "Expansion of russian empire" maps to get an impression of this expansions. Historically, most of multi-national empires in Europe (Austria-Hungary; Germa…
Yeah. How did Siberia get to be Russian? It wasn't by the Mongols invading Russia...