Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Why Ireland's housing bubble burst

worksinprogress.co

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

151–160 of 161 posts

Re: Why Ireland's housing bubble burst

#151

Post by oblio »

inglor_cz wrote: post #149
oblio wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's almost no popular city in the world where this is feasible. Especially the 800sqm garden. A small terraced house with a 200sqm garden, maybe. But 800sqm is extreme for anything above a sleepy town. Maybe in a bad neighborhood or a suburb reasonably far away from the actual city. But in the city? In ~1000sqm you could build an entire apartment building that could house 60+ people. > Something is seriously aske…

Arrogant? I grew up in a Czechoslovak apartment building and although it still stands and now looks a lot better inside and outside, it required a lot of investments in the meantime and it might have been cheaper to pull it down and build a replacement from scratch - but it wouldn't have been bureaucratically easier, plus people are attached to their dwellings. Meanwhile buildings built around 1900 are in better orde…

Prague is a touristic city and reasonably popular with expats, its nature has changed.

It's not just the capital of Czechia anymore. Those days aren't coming back.

Same with Munich. 40 years ago it was just the capital of Bavaria, now it's an international hub.

Re: Why Ireland's housing bubble burst

#152

Post by inglor_cz »

oblio wrote: post #151
inglor_cz wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arrogant? I grew up in a Czechoslovak apartment building and although it still stands and now looks a lot better inside and outside, it required a lot of investments in the meantime and it might have been cheaper to pull it down and build a replacement from scratch - but it wouldn't have been bureaucratically easier, plus people are attached to their dwellings. Meanwhile buildings built around 1900 are in better orde…

Prague is a touristic city and reasonably popular with expats, its nature has changed. It's not just the capital of Czechia anymore. Those days aren't coming back. Same with Munich. 40 years ago it was just the capital of Bavaria, now it's an international hub.

Its nature has changed, but the NIMBY laws have changed even more. It is a veritable paper battle to get anything built in Prague now. The permit process takes about 8 years for a normal condo building.

It used to be a much faster process, even 20 years ago. It is still a much faster in some other countries. We have a lot of unused brownfields within Prague that could be home to tens of thousands of people, close to the subway ... but they are overgrown and useful to nobody, because an endless paper war is raging over them.

Re: Why Ireland's housing bubble burst

#153

Post by ashtonkem »

simplestats wrote: post #122
ashtonkem wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're drastically underestimating how many people emigrate to America. As of 2018 44 million Americans were born in another country and immigrated here[0], representing one fifth of the world's immigrants. As a percentage of the US' population (13.7), this is very close to the all time high of 14.8% in 1890 . Our immigration wave right now is damn close to the peaks of the Ellis Island period of Italian and…

Birth rates are predicted to keep going down though, meaning the supply of immigrants will dry up anyway.

It won't though. The UN's models on the area say that world population will continue to grow (population has momentum) until the end of that century, at which point population growth will be very close to 0, with an estimated population of 10.5 billion people. So even in total numbers, we won't run out of people anytime soon.

Even when global populations begin to fall, we can still keep immigration up. There's nothing at all inconsistent with falling populations and immigration. Economically there might be a lot of pressure for people in places with falling populations to emigrate, because of the economic effects of sudden population drops.

Re: Why Ireland's housing bubble burst

#154

Post by pandaman »

camgunz wrote: post #145
oblio wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just aesthetic, it's practical, too. You can make larger changes that landlords frequently ban.

I mean aesthetic in the broader sense. For example I'd love to have rainwater capture and solar panels at my home, and maybe a composting site and garden too. Apartment living rules those out, but if I owned my own home I can probably get them going (coop boards or HOAs notwithstanding). But like, I don't need them. Almost no one does. It's an aesthetic lifestyle choice. I'm (probably, anyway) willing to purchase a h…

It all boils down to the liability. A standard residential lease only has the deposit as the collateral for any possible damage. Theoretically the landlord can go after more money with a judgment but it's not very probable to collect from an individual without much property (thus renting and not owning).

For rich and sophisticated renters there is always an option to pay the landlord to do whatever modifications they want.

Re: Why Ireland's housing bubble burst

#155

Post by coldtea »

capableweb wrote: post #135
coldtea wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>*Don't they burst because the source doesn't stop before the bubble gets larger than what it can be? (...) The source stopping would just lead to a deflation where it slowly gets smaller if the air hole is still open To continue my analogy, I prefer to visualize them as flying uncontrollably while shrinking very quickly (but not immediately as a puncture would), propelled by their own deflation discharges... So, thi…

Sounds like your analogy is more about balloons rather than bubbles. Bubbles make me think of these: https://www.techexplorist.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/bub...

I guess you're right... I think of it the analogy more like baloons than water bubbles...

Re: Why Ireland's housing bubble burst

#156

Post by camgunz »

pandaman wrote: post #154
camgunz wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean aesthetic in the broader sense. For example I'd love to have rainwater capture and solar panels at my home, and maybe a composting site and garden too. Apartment living rules those out, but if I owned my own home I can probably get them going (coop boards or HOAs notwithstanding). But like, I don't need them. Almost no one does. It's an aesthetic lifestyle choice. I'm (probably, anyway) willing to purchase a h…

It all boils down to the liability. A standard residential lease only has the deposit as the collateral for any possible damage. Theoretically the landlord can go after more money with a judgment but it's not very probable to collect from an individual without much property (thus renting and not owning). For rich and sophisticated renters there is always an option to pay the landlord to do whatever modifications they…

Yeah that's a good point. I wonder if we can add some rigor to the improvement/modification process to avoid like, wacky mods or incompetent DIYers/contractors causing serious or widespread damage. I guess I would worry about adding yet another barrier to entry to an already struggling sector (tradespeople) but, maybe some more professionalization would make it more attractive and avoid the "no parent tells their kid they hope they grow up to be a house framer" phenomenon.

Re: Why Ireland's housing bubble burst

#157

Post by pandaman »

camgunz wrote: post #156
pandaman wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It all boils down to the liability. A standard residential lease only has the deposit as the collateral for any possible damage. Theoretically the landlord can go after more money with a judgment but it's not very probable to collect from an individual without much property (thus renting and not owning). For rich and sophisticated renters there is always an option to pay the landlord to do whatever modifications they…

Yeah that's a good point. I wonder if we can add some rigor to the improvement/modification process to avoid like, wacky mods or incompetent DIYers/contractors causing serious or widespread damage. I guess I would worry about adding yet another barrier to entry to an already struggling sector (tradespeople) but, maybe some more professionalization would make it more attractive and avoid the "no parent tells their kid…

There is already rigor: insurance and bond. However the insured and bonded contractor has to have a contract with the landlord so landlord can go after the insurance and bond. Thus only the landlord can order work on the property. Theoretically a renter can become an insured and bonded contractor oneself but it's much cheaper to just pay the contractor through landlord.

Re: Why Ireland's housing bubble burst

#158

Post by camgunz »

pandaman wrote: post #157
camgunz wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah that's a good point. I wonder if we can add some rigor to the improvement/modification process to avoid like, wacky mods or incompetent DIYers/contractors causing serious or widespread damage. I guess I would worry about adding yet another barrier to entry to an already struggling sector (tradespeople) but, maybe some more professionalization would make it more attractive and avoid the "no parent tells their kid…

There is already rigor: insurance and bond. However the insured and bonded contractor has to have a contract with the landlord so landlord can go after the insurance and bond. Thus only the landlord can order work on the property. Theoretically a renter can become an insured and bonded contractor oneself but it's much cheaper to just pay the contractor through landlord.

Sure, but the missing piece is getting landlord to allow this. 99% of residential landlords will just say "nah", again probably because we have this mentality that renting is a temporary stepping stone on the path to home ownership.

Markets that aren't like this (NYC) have a huge, professional renter class of people who will likely never own a home there, and you can see how the regime is different. It'd be nice if that were more prevalent, IMO anyway.

Re: Why Ireland's housing bubble burst

#159

Post by pandaman »

camgunz wrote: post #158
pandaman wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is already rigor: insurance and bond. However the insured and bonded contractor has to have a contract with the landlord so landlord can go after the insurance and bond. Thus only the landlord can order work on the property. Theoretically a renter can become an insured and bonded contractor oneself but it's much cheaper to just pay the contractor through landlord.

Sure, but the missing piece is getting landlord to allow this. 99% of residential landlords will just say "nah", again probably because we have this mentality that renting is a temporary stepping stone on the path to home ownership. Markets that aren't like this (NYC) have a huge, professional renter class of people who will likely never own a home there, and you can see how the regime is different. It'd be nice if t…

I don't see where you get your statistics. I would be elated if a tenant improved my house on his or her dime. With multi-unit rentals you just need to do what the commercial leases do: ensure that you also pay for returning the property to the original state (by posting a bond, for example) as nobody wants a multi-unit rental with different units in it.

In NYC or LA you can definitely find rentals which will do a remodel for your specs before you move in. Those are not, of course, $3K/m bare bones 2brs in multiplexes the 99% "professional renters" are looking for.

Re: Why Ireland's housing bubble burst

#160

Post by camgunz »

pandaman wrote: post #159
camgunz wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but the missing piece is getting landlord to allow this. 99% of residential landlords will just say "nah", again probably because we have this mentality that renting is a temporary stepping stone on the path to home ownership. Markets that aren't like this (NYC) have a huge, professional renter class of people who will likely never own a home there, and you can see how the regime is different. It'd be nice if t…

I don't see where you get your statistics. I would be elated if a tenant improved my house on his or her dime. With multi-unit rentals you just need to do what the commercial leases do: ensure that you also pay for returning the property to the original state (by posting a bond, for example) as nobody wants a multi-unit rental with different units in it. In NYC or LA you can definitely find rentals which will do a re…

I mean I'm not being super rigorous. Based on my experience, the experience of everyone I know, and the fact that nearly every apartment I've ever been in my whole life is essentially unmodified and mostly out of date (or poorly maintained, or brand new) I think this is broadly, mostly true.

And sure, you can find places who are gonna pull $4k/m out of you and they're willing to do all kinds of things--even more if you sign a multi-year lease. But only a tiny sliver of Americans will ever do that, or will even ever be able to do that. Most apartments are still in smaller cities like Indianapolis or Nashville; they're big multiplexes, and you absolutely cannot modify them. My hypothesis here is that this is because in most of the US, we generally view renting as a step on the path towards home ownership, so the "worse experience" is supposed to both be efficient and serve as a motivation to join the housing market.

And I think, ultimately, you and I are saying the same thing? In markets where tons of relatively powerful/rich people are renters (NYC, LA, SF) you do get landlords that are far more amenable to things like modification, but in other markets you very much don't. Maybe we disagree on which market has more apartment stock or renters?

Post reply on HN