Print several trillion dollars to induce demand while shutting down industry worldwide off and on for two years, which reduces supply. It’s obvious this will cause prices to rise dramatically.
‘Farms are failing’ as fertilizer prices drive up cost of food
61–70 of 235 posts
Re: ‘Farms are failing’ as fertilizer prices drive up cost of food
#62World hunger for the first world maybe. 80% of global food is still produced in very small, un-industrial family farms.
Source? I suspect the number is closer to 20% than 80.
FAO’s SOFA report (2014a) estimated, based on an analysis of just 30 countries using the 2000 round of agricultural census data, that there are approximately 500 million family farmers in the world who produce 80% of the world’s food
From: https://pure.coventry.ac.uk/ws/portalfiles/portal/11930738/1...
Re: ‘Farms are failing’ as fertilizer prices drive up cost of food
#63Earlier quoted context omitted.
In the US, perhaps we could stop the obscene subsidies for petroleum, corn, and meat, and subsidize more sustainable, nutritious and humane crops and farming practices.
If those existed and were cheaper, that would be done
If what existed? sustainable, nutritious and humane crops and farming practices? they do exist.
Re: ‘Farms are failing’ as fertilizer prices drive up cost of food
#64There is also a slightly different way to grow food using a less intense fertilizer called "square foot gardening". https://squarefootgardening.org/ There is a best selling book about it and it works surprisingly well. The secret fertilizer for this, affectionately known as "Mel's Mix" recipe is available for anyone to make their own. It's not even terribly hard if you're willing to do a bit of composting outside on…
Edit: "wheat" -> "corn" "Square foot gardening" with hand labor isn't going to replace the 772 million metric tons of wheat and 1 billion metric tons of corn produced annually. Sorry, it just isn't. Given that it's January, why not try the experiment of producing all the food you personally consume this year using the techniques in this book? Growing a few tomatoes and a bit of lettuce is pretty easy, and is a fun an…
Growing by hand for calories is a negative return activity. Industrial is just more energy efficient and who cares about artisanal sugar or cooking oil.
Hand-Grow some herbs and tomatoes on the other hand and now you’re making dough.
Re: ‘Farms are failing’ as fertilizer prices drive up cost of food
#65Earlier quoted context omitted.
In the US, perhaps we could stop the obscene subsidies for petroleum, corn, and meat, and subsidize more sustainable, nutritious and humane crops and farming practices.
If those existed and were cheaper, that would be done
That presumes that those subsidies are for solely practical reasons, when in reality they're at least partially a political tool.
Re: ‘Farms are failing’ as fertilizer prices drive up cost of food
#66There are options besides chemical fertilizers. The nodules on legume root are a symbiotic home for nitrogen-fixing bacteria. Farmers traditionally rotate corn and soybeans to reduce their nitrogen costs. Other plants have deeper roots, which pull up nutrients... My comment about biological nitrogen fixation (15 days ago): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29829580 Saw this recently: Black eyed peas could help eli…
From what I've read, the Haber process sustains well over half of the earth's animal population. Legumes can't provide enough nitrogen to maintain current levels of crop yields. Something has to give.
Too lazy to look up numbers, but in the US corn is a significant crop and much of it is more of an industrial feedstock rather than food for people.
I'm guessing that "more natural" processes could still feed us all but the game is rigged so that it's not economical for to do that (directly, as it's effectively subsidized for the "economical" side).
Re: ‘Farms are failing’ as fertilizer prices drive up cost of food
#67There is also a slightly different way to grow food using a less intense fertilizer called "square foot gardening". https://squarefootgardening.org/ There is a best selling book about it and it works surprisingly well. The secret fertilizer for this, affectionately known as "Mel's Mix" recipe is available for anyone to make their own. It's not even terribly hard if you're willing to do a bit of composting outside on…
Edit: "wheat" -> "corn" "Square foot gardening" with hand labor isn't going to replace the 772 million metric tons of wheat and 1 billion metric tons of corn produced annually. Sorry, it just isn't. Given that it's January, why not try the experiment of producing all the food you personally consume this year using the techniques in this book? Growing a few tomatoes and a bit of lettuce is pretty easy, and is a fun an…
With ag automation, paradigm shift.
Re: ‘Farms are failing’ as fertilizer prices drive up cost of food
#68There are options besides chemical fertilizers. The nodules on legume root are a symbiotic home for nitrogen-fixing bacteria. Farmers traditionally rotate corn and soybeans to reduce their nitrogen costs. Other plants have deeper roots, which pull up nutrients... My comment about biological nitrogen fixation (15 days ago): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29829580 Saw this recently: Black eyed peas could help eli…
How readily would this be deployed to coffee farms in Brazil, staple foods in sub-Saharan Africa, watermelon farms in Colombia, coconut groves in Sumatra, palm oil in Malaysia, and rice paddies in the Ivory Coast? (All examples from the article.)
Poorly, but why keep at the Haber process for another century of historic growth and record mouths fed when we can instead try our luck with legumes?
Re: ‘Farms are failing’ as fertilizer prices drive up cost of food
#69Print several trillion dollars to induce demand while shutting down industry worldwide off and on for two years, which reduces supply. It’s obvious this will cause prices to rise dramatically.
Hello! Urea fertilizer has jumped from $400/ton to $1100/ton in a year. This is not consistent with the price jump being caused by inflation, which remains at much more modest rates.
The prices are higher due energy prices rising in Europe and China, natural gas supply disruptions in Texas due to hurricanes and floods, and sanctions on Belarus. They are a driver of inflation, not caused by inflation.
Re: ‘Farms are failing’ as fertilizer prices drive up cost of food
#70Food prices rising means hunger means social unrest. The developed world is not entirely out of the woods.
With low natural gas prices and heavily subsidised food, the poor of the US should hopefully come out relatively unharmed.
It's going to be worse in the EU and its periphery:
- High dependence on Russian natural gas.
- Lots of fertiliser depends on Belarussian potash here.
- The natural gas crisis is halting lots of energy intensive processes all over Europe already.