‘Farms are failing’ as fertilizer prices drive up cost of food • Hacker News Board

Re: ‘Farms are failing’ as fertilizer prices drive up cost of food

#41

Post by fennecfoxen » Sat, Jan 22, 2022, 5:26 AM UTC

Bostonian wrote: post #2

The climate change activists who want to cut oil and natural gas production should consider the consequences: "The price-increases stem partly from global energy costs, with the average natural-gas price in Europe for the October-December quarter 10 times as much as that for the year of 2020, according to World Bank data. Nitrogen production facilities rely heavily on natural gas to convert chemical raw materials int…

Hello! The causes of the current crisis include:

- the energy situation in China, suffering coal shortages, leading to shortfalls in the production of fertilizer, and

- hurricanes in Texas which shut down natural gas production, leading to shortages of ammonia and urea as inputs to fertilizer production, and

- all sorts of COVID stuff impacting production in lots of ways, and

- sanctions against Belarus, a major potash producer, and

- yes, the energy situation in Europe, where the renewables had a few problems and weren't quite cutting it yet, such that gas is in short supply, while Russia is saber-rattling.

It's a one-among-many thing.

One possibly better form of this argument would be to suggest this threat to global food security is a representative of the situation which would occur if activists' stated goals were met, but in this case an argument that does not clearly state words to this effect is an argument that is undermined by the fact this is much more coincidence rather than design.

Re: ‘Farms are failing’ as fertilizer prices drive up cost of food

#42

Post by woodruffw » Sat, Jan 22, 2022, 5:26 AM UTC

mc32 wrote: post #28

woodruffw wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the person you’re responding to is saying that it’s good that we’ll all be eating less meat. There’s an important point to be made about inequity and the decline of commodity meat, but that point doesn’t detract from the fact that it’s probably good for everyone involved and the planet for us to be eating less meat.

Yes, over time, that would be fine, but not a shock induced by the high prices of fertilizer that immediately affect prices --inducing glee in some because they don't see the immediate detrimental effects.

I agree that shocks generally aren't good. I'm also a meat eater, and I don't like paying more for meat. But I do simultaneously recognize that (1) meat should be more expensive than it is, and (2) that the "real" price of food is completely divorced from the actual price.

In terms of our agricultural mean, there is no reason why every single American can't have cheap, healthy produce without having to devastate the environment. Our current pricing scheme is a product of the better part of a century of (good-intentioned) subsidies and stupendously wasteful distribution practices.

Re: ‘Farms are failing’ as fertilizer prices drive up cost of food

#43

Post by mc32 » Sat, Jan 22, 2022, 5:27 AM UTC

Negitivefrags wrote: post #26

rr808 wrote: post #11

This is a good thing, fertilizer is heavily overused, poisoning waterways. Yes the cost of food may go up as a result but the current farming practices are unsustainable.

This would be rather like telling the Irish in 1847 that “This is a good thing because it will make you less dependant on a single crop”. A somewhat callous attitude.

Indeed. They might as well celebrate power blackouts because that reduces carbon emissions --never mid the emergency services which can't be rendered and affect lives --but hey they avoided carbon emissions! That's ideology.

Re: ‘Farms are failing’ as fertilizer prices drive up cost of food

#44

Post by fennecfoxen » Sat, Jan 22, 2022, 5:29 AM UTC

teslabox wrote: post #17

There are options besides chemical fertilizers. The nodules on legume root are a symbiotic home for nitrogen-fixing bacteria. Farmers traditionally rotate corn and soybeans to reduce their nitrogen costs. Other plants have deeper roots, which pull up nutrients... My comment about biological nitrogen fixation (15 days ago): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29829580 Saw this recently: Black eyed peas could help eli…

How readily would this be deployed to coffee farms in Brazil, staple foods in sub-Saharan Africa, watermelon farms in Colombia, coconut groves in Sumatra, palm oil in Malaysia, and rice paddies in the Ivory Coast? (All examples from the article.)

Re: ‘Farms are failing’ as fertilizer prices drive up cost of food

#45

Post by tastyfreeze » Sat, Jan 22, 2022, 5:29 AM UTC

ch4s3 wrote: post #38

rr808 wrote: post #11

This is a good thing, fertilizer is heavily overused, poisoning waterways. Yes the cost of food may go up as a result but the current farming practices are unsustainable.

> poisoning waterways This hasn't been true for years. Most algal blooms around the US at least are caused by lawn runoff.

Source please. The quantity of fertilizer used on farms dwarfs that used on lawns.

Re: ‘Farms are failing’ as fertilizer prices drive up cost of food

#46

Post by woodruffw » Sat, Jan 22, 2022, 5:32 AM UTC

octoberfranklin wrote: post #32

rr808 wrote: post #11

This is a good thing, fertilizer is heavily overused, poisoning waterways. Yes the cost of food may go up as a result but the current farming practices are unsustainable.

You're talking about the death of half the world's population: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:World_population_sup...

Cheap synthetic fertilizer is one of the single greatest inventions of the 20th century, and is singlehandedly responsible for an enormous increase in our productive capacity and quality of life.

At the same time, I think this chart is misleading: it shows our ability to support the current population as it currently consumes, which includes an extraordinary amount of crop diversion towards animal feed. The GP is describing a world in which we all eat radically less meat, which is also one in which we need to use less synthetic fertilizer for all that meat's food.

Re: ‘Farms are failing’ as fertilizer prices drive up cost of food

#47

Post by ashtonkem » Sat, Jan 22, 2022, 5:41 AM UTC

Negitivefrags wrote: post #26

rr808 wrote: post #11

This is a good thing, fertilizer is heavily overused, poisoning waterways. Yes the cost of food may go up as a result but the current farming practices are unsustainable.

This would be rather like telling the Irish in 1847 that “This is a good thing because it will make you less dependant on a single crop”. A somewhat callous attitude.

The problem with that metaphor is that the Irish largely went hungry because England continued to export food from the island during the famine. The crop failure was because of nature, but the famine was man made.

Re: ‘Farms are failing’ as fertilizer prices drive up cost of food

#48

Post by analog31 » Sat, Jan 22, 2022, 5:44 AM UTC

teslabox wrote: post #17

There are options besides chemical fertilizers. The nodules on legume root are a symbiotic home for nitrogen-fixing bacteria. Farmers traditionally rotate corn and soybeans to reduce their nitrogen costs. Other plants have deeper roots, which pull up nutrients... My comment about biological nitrogen fixation (15 days ago): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29829580 Saw this recently: Black eyed peas could help eli…

From what I've read, the Haber process sustains well over half of the earth's animal population. Legumes can't provide enough nitrogen to maintain current levels of crop yields. Something has to give.

Re: ‘Farms are failing’ as fertilizer prices drive up cost of food

#49

Post by goda90 » Sat, Jan 22, 2022, 5:44 AM UTC

Gigachad wrote: post #19

mc32 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It means poor people will suffer. Overpopulated paces may suffer more. Places experiencing bad crops as well…. It’s not something to celebrate in detachment. [the market, and thus price of food staples, is global]

More production will be moved from grain for cattle to growing food for humans. We can massively scale up our food production if we remove beef from the average diet.

Most agricultural land can't support food crops but can support ruminants.

Re: ‘Farms are failing’ as fertilizer prices drive up cost of food

#50

Post by throwaway2048 » Sat, Jan 22, 2022, 5:49 AM UTC

ashtonkem wrote: post #47

Negitivefrags wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This would be rather like telling the Irish in 1847 that “This is a good thing because it will make you less dependant on a single crop”. A somewhat callous attitude.

The problem with that metaphor is that the Irish largely went hungry because England continued to export food from the island during the famine. The crop failure was because of nature, but the famine was man made.

I've got bad news for you if you think our current crop of politicians and businessmen are going to pick lives over profits in an analogous situation.