A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth • Hacker News Board

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#191

Post by simplestats » Fri, Jan 21, 2022, 9:30 PM UTC

godelski wrote: post #186

yazaddaruvala wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Youth extension therapies will be cheaper for insurance companies than current hospice care. As such it will not cost more than the price of your current insurance premiums. However, while the intellectual property is still protected, there may be some hiccups but they seem unlikely. Specifically manufacturing of medicine is cheap. The R&D is expensive. As such even if the company owning the IP kept prices artificial…

Definitely this. What people don't get is that an optimal solution in insurance is to have everyone healthy. If everyone is healthy then there's no one drawing money from the pool and the insurance company is only collecting money. Of course the other optimization is forcing everyone to have insurance when healthy and kicking them off when they get sick.

They have actuaries to make sure they get their profit margin either way. Healthy insurance customers just make sick insurance customers happier since the price goes down.

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#192

Post by randcraw » Fri, Jan 21, 2022, 10:42 PM UTC

DoubleDerper wrote: post #180

mdavis6890 wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that anything related to the human body is super-heavily regulated, which creates a ton of friction and risk to doing anything innovative. I think the folks that would get very excited about working on the problem of aging would not be excited about the amount of regulatory bureaucracy (trying to find a non-judgmental word to use there) that necessarily goes along with it. In fact I think that the reas…

"...anything related to the human body is super-heavily regulated" In the Western world this is true. Countries with less oversight stand to benefit from regulation arbitrage.

Of course, China already has refuted your thesis. Due to lack of oversight and regulation (and enforcement), their health care system is mistrusted by everyone. That's why the country's covid inoculation rate has been so low. Because trust is very hard to regain once lost, ensurance of safety and efficacy in healthcare through regulation has clear advantages.

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#193

Post by randcraw » Fri, Jan 21, 2022, 10:54 PM UTC

Jack000 wrote: post #59

Trying to fix aging for existing humans is like trying to patch a binary that's already running, it would be way easier to build new humans with better source code imo.

But much disease is acquired environmentally, and many repairs are due to normal wear and tear, building anew would be useless to serve both of those ends.

And unless you can figure out why cells age, you can't build new humans who are immune to senescence either.

Defeating the aging process is critical to solving both problems.

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#194

Post by e_y_ » Fri, Jan 21, 2022, 10:55 PM UTC

mdavis6890 wrote: post #148

fairity wrote: post #121

I wish our brightest minds were all working in areas like this instead of social apps and advertising. Is there even any doubt that with a better understanding of biology we could meaningfully prolong the human lifespan? What are we doing working on apps lol.

The problem is that anything related to the human body is super-heavily regulated, which creates a ton of friction and risk to doing anything innovative. I think the folks that would get very excited about working on the problem of aging would not be excited about the amount of regulatory bureaucracy (trying to find a non-judgmental word to use there) that necessarily goes along with it. In fact I think that the reas…

There's tons of basic research that could be done before we ever get to the regulatory question of human trials. If we could get pigs to live for 50 years (currently ~20) it would be a huge step forward in our understanding of aging.

On the other hand, pig life extension is not really a product you can sell. Even human life extension, which should theoretically be worth trillions if it works, seems like too much of a pipe dream. The benefits of basic research only become apparent years or decades down the road, and a lot of it is going to be dead ends.

Whereas it's pretty firmly established that if you can make a $700 smartphone that's slightly better than last year's, you can sell millions of them.

(Although apparently you can find a handful of people who want to inject sheep cells in their butt despite having no proven benefit: https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg15320660-500-germany-... )

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#195

Post by randcraw » Fri, Jan 21, 2022, 11:03 PM UTC

darkstar999 wrote: post #141

Any thoughts on how these efforts could conflict with our climate goals? Should we have an age ceiling? (that sounds awful, but so does the idea of everyone living to 150)

Easy. If you don't breed, you get to take The Pill of Eternal Youth. If you do breed, you don't. Any other solution would be unjust or unsustainable.

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#196

Post by sooham » Fri, Jan 21, 2022, 11:27 PM UTC

alkonaut wrote: post #164

Pigalowda wrote: post #88

Maybe I’m interpreting the article wrong but it looks like they’re going to try temporarily activating a handful of transcription factors (Yamanaka) through a crispr mediated gene alteration/insertion. I suppose if you created a viral vector that injected an mRNA with a nuclear localization signal - what would you use to activate it? Include a steroid promoter (or other) and co-inject with cortisone? None of my predi…

> I hope they do skin first, I’m tired of looking like a wrinkle. Imagine inventing a cream that actually makes skin look younger, and then realizing people have tried to sell that (without delivering) for a century so no one will believe you.

Look up tretinoin it reverses aging to some degree.

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#197

Post by Kinrany » Fri, Jan 21, 2022, 11:28 PM UTC

solveit wrote: post #165

grishka wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So how can I, as a software developer, meaningfully contribute to this area? I would very much prefer to live forever.

Competitive advantage says that in the vast majority of cases you should do more or less what you're doing now, perhaps adjust your behaviour to optimise for compensation, and spend/donate money to have more biologists work on this. This is very general advice for anyone with a cause that they would like to get done without regard to who does it.

It's only true when money is the bottleneck.

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#198

Post by pfisherman » Sat, Jan 22, 2022, 12:32 AM UTC

yazaddaruvala wrote: post #173

JoeJonathan wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm looking forward to when all the people who can't pay either start murdering wealthy immortals or are galvanized by a strongman who convinces them that this is actually good for them because one day maybe they too could become immortal, and that who they should really hate are immigrants.

Youth extension therapies will be cheaper for insurance companies than current hospice care. As such it will not cost more than the price of your current insurance premiums. However, while the intellectual property is still protected, there may be some hiccups but they seem unlikely. Specifically manufacturing of medicine is cheap. The R&D is expensive. As such even if the company owning the IP kept prices artificial…

I am going to tell you something very depressing. Saving health insurance companies money (and taking a cut of the savings) is not a viable business model. Health insurance companies are pass through entities. They do not really care about the cost of treatments.

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#199

Post by HWR_14 » Sat, Jan 22, 2022, 1:43 AM UTC

SuoDuanDao wrote: post #152

whatshisface wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a society of immortals becomes either stagnant or unsustainable Which society of immortals are you referring to?

Tolkein's Elves :)? More seriously, it's a common theory that age-related diseases are an evolved adaptation because over time a species must form an equilibrium with its resource base.

Yes, but pretty much every other equilibrium based limit is something humans decided we didn't want anymore either.

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#200

Post by bagacrap » Sat, Jan 22, 2022, 2:30 AM UTC

fairity wrote: post #121

I wish our brightest minds were all working in areas like this instead of social apps and advertising. Is there even any doubt that with a better understanding of biology we could meaningfully prolong the human lifespan? What are we doing working on apps lol.

I for one would prefer to live to 80 with "apps" than make it to 90 but live in a cave