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A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

economist.com

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Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#171

Post by pessimizer »

woke_neoliberal wrote: post #7

There have been several companies formed in the past few years whose premise is researching in industry anti-aging or basic science more generally (Calico, Altos Labs, Arcadia, etc.)... Does anyone understand the underlying economics or motivations? They can't be gambles when they raise $B's, and I'm too cynical to believe these are altruistic endeavors. Certainly there is research that cannot be reasonably expected…

The wealth of the world is controlled by Baby Boomers, and all of them are too old to die young at this point. You can't take it with you.

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#172

Post by beepbooptheory »

seoulbran wrote: post #166
beepbooptheory wrote: post #161

Considering the general trajectory of the world, its surprising people want to stay in it longer, but I guess I too have a portion of morbid curiosity to see just how much we keep screwing everything up. To actually witness cities becoming submerged. Also, if I didn't have to slave away most of my life to survive, if I could live the life I want, I could probably have a full life by 60, with maybe only a few books st…

The world aint that bad my friend, just a little crazy atm - it'll get better. Hang in there. If you're on this website, you're one of the lucky few that has their needs taken care of and an ability to traverse up Maslow's pyramid. Besides, shit is just getting interesting. Strap in.

Thank you, I am personally fine, living the life I want within my circumstances, I am not sad. I think it's a little interesting that feeling pessimistic about the course of civilization necessarily means I am in despair. Humans are just one creature on the earth, our fate as a species need not be the determination of an individual's happiness.

Also, I might need to check to see if I have the required income to be eligible for being this site, I might not make the cut...

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#173

Post by yazaddaruvala »

JoeJonathan wrote: post #150
orangecat wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does anyone understand the underlying economics or motivations? How much would you pay for a treatment to prevent or repair the negative effects of aging? For me the answer is "well over 100% of my net worth".

I'm looking forward to when all the people who can't pay either start murdering wealthy immortals or are galvanized by a strongman who convinces them that this is actually good for them because one day maybe they too could become immortal, and that who they should really hate are immigrants.

Youth extension therapies will be cheaper for insurance companies than current hospice care. As such it will not cost more than the price of your current insurance premiums. However, while the intellectual property is still protected, there may be some hiccups but they seem unlikely.

Specifically manufacturing of medicine is cheap. The R&D is expensive. As such even if the company owning the IP kept prices artificially high. Facilities in Africa, China, India, etc would reverse engineer them and medical tourism would become even more common. This is a constant threat for COVID vaccine manufacturers today. It’s very likely the prices of youth extension are not much greater than the COVID vaccine (I.e. about $20 per dose)

Meanwhile, the population of countries with single payer health care (e.g. Canada, New Zealand, etc), will also reject intellectual property protections for a company halfway around the world. Life extension for the population is more valuable than a few potential tariffs.

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#174

Post by michaelbarton »

d_burfoot wrote: post #37

I love this. People are starting to realize how powerful the logic of life extension is. Think about this: if this startup succeeds only at extending human life expectancy by a single day , it's already worth it. A life is about 3e4 days, and there are 9e9 humans, so giving 1 extra day to every human is the equivalent of saving 3e5 lives.

I can't help thinking that people dying of old age is our last defense against consolidation of power. No matter how much power someone accrues they're eventually going to die. That power always dissipates, dynasties never last forever.

This might be an extremely cynical take, but it feels like if we did discover a scientific fountain of youth we would end up with immortal billionaires rather than the likes of you and I becoming immortal. There's literally thousands of people dying prematurely in the US from lack of access to healthcare technology that we already have right now.

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#175

Post by michaelbarton »

darkstar999 wrote: post #141

Any thoughts on how these efforts could conflict with our climate goals? Should we have an age ceiling? (that sounds awful, but so does the idea of everyone living to 150)

That's a great question. I know almost nothing about climate science. I assume though that it's directly tied to human consumption, and more people years means more consumption.

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#176

Post by smnrchrds »

grishka wrote: post #127
fairity wrote: post #121

I wish our brightest minds were all working in areas like this instead of social apps and advertising. Is there even any doubt that with a better understanding of biology we could meaningfully prolong the human lifespan? What are we doing working on apps lol.

So how can I, as a software developer, meaningfully contribute to this area? I would very much prefer to live forever.

In an ideal world, biology salaries would be on par with tech salaries, so more intelligent ambitious young people will pursue education and careers in biology.

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#177

Post by grishka »

smnrchrds wrote: post #176
grishka wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So how can I, as a software developer, meaningfully contribute to this area? I would very much prefer to live forever.

In an ideal world, biology salaries would be on par with tech salaries, so more intelligent ambitious young people will pursue education and careers in biology.

I'm personally not driven by money and never was. First and foremost I would like to make the world a better place.

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#178

Post by Pigalowda »

alkonaut wrote: post #164
Pigalowda wrote: post #88

Maybe I’m interpreting the article wrong but it looks like they’re going to try temporarily activating a handful of transcription factors (Yamanaka) through a crispr mediated gene alteration/insertion. I suppose if you created a viral vector that injected an mRNA with a nuclear localization signal - what would you use to activate it? Include a steroid promoter (or other) and co-inject with cortisone? None of my predi…

> I hope they do skin first, I’m tired of looking like a wrinkle. Imagine inventing a cream that actually makes skin look younger, and then realizing people have tried to sell that (without delivering) for a century so no one will believe you.

The inventor can go old school and use it personally until it catches on with friends/family. Or is this a monkeys paw kind of cream?

What about cream that works for 10-20 years but ends with rapidly progressive multifocal melanoma? I would probably still do it if i was 65-70 years old.

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#179

Post by [deleted] »

woke_neoliberal wrote: post #7

There have been several companies formed in the past few years whose premise is researching in industry anti-aging or basic science more generally (Calico, Altos Labs, Arcadia, etc.)... Does anyone understand the underlying economics or motivations? They can't be gambles when they raise $B's, and I'm too cynical to believe these are altruistic endeavors. Certainly there is research that cannot be reasonably expected…

[deleted]

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#180

Post by DoubleDerper »

mdavis6890 wrote: post #148
fairity wrote: post #121

I wish our brightest minds were all working in areas like this instead of social apps and advertising. Is there even any doubt that with a better understanding of biology we could meaningfully prolong the human lifespan? What are we doing working on apps lol.

The problem is that anything related to the human body is super-heavily regulated, which creates a ton of friction and risk to doing anything innovative. I think the folks that would get very excited about working on the problem of aging would not be excited about the amount of regulatory bureaucracy (trying to find a non-judgmental word to use there) that necessarily goes along with it. In fact I think that the reas…

"...anything related to the human body is super-heavily regulated"

In the Western world this is true. Countries with less oversight stand to benefit from regulation arbitrage.

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