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A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

economist.com

131–140 of 214 posts

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#131

I love this. People are starting to realize how powerful the logic of life extension is. Think about this: if this startup succeeds only at extending human life expectancy by a single day , it's already worth it. A life is about 3e4 days, and there are 9e9 humans, so giving 1 extra day to every human is the equivalent of saving 3e5 lives.

> startup succeeds only at extending human life expectancy by a single day

https://donate.worldvision.org/give/east-africa-hunger-crisi...

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#132

I wish our brightest minds were all working in areas like this instead of social apps and advertising. Is there even any doubt that with a better understanding of biology we could meaningfully prolong the human lifespan? What are we doing working on apps lol.

Calico[0] is funded by Google, so advertising is obviously a necessary evil.

0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calico_(company)#_sarcasm

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#133

There have been several companies formed in the past few years whose premise is researching in industry anti-aging or basic science more generally (Calico, Altos Labs, Arcadia, etc.)... Does anyone understand the underlying economics or motivations? They can't be gambles when they raise $B's, and I'm too cynical to believe these are altruistic endeavors. Certainly there is research that cannot be reasonably expected…

[deleted]

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#134

People have been trying to “cure cancer” for a while, and though there is some success, we have many more cure for mice, no? However, I have not heard of even a 10 year old lab mouse that has the health of a young mouse. Isn’t that a bad sign we can’t even slow aging (beyond fractional amounts) in a mouse?

Aging is not an irreversible process like most people think it is. It would make much more sense to research rejuvenation than to try to cure various age-related conditions individually.

In general: cells see signaling molecules in the bloodstream and "act their age" according to these signals. It's a self-sustaining process too. Google "heterochromic parabiosis" for actual research papers. It's impressive stuff.

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#135

People have been trying to “cure cancer” for a while, and though there is some success, we have many more cure for mice, no? However, I have not heard of even a 10 year old lab mouse that has the health of a young mouse. Isn’t that a bad sign we can’t even slow aging (beyond fractional amounts) in a mouse?

Both your arguments share one feature: rapid iterations. It's much easier to iterate over various cancer factors/treatments/conditions when the duration of a single mouse experiment is in the range of maybe 6 months. But when you want a mouse to live for 10 years your iterations take 10 years. And you cannot do the research anymore with PhD students or postdocs because they aren't with you for long enough. A problem that actually arises right now in organoid research as human organs, for some reason, need in the order of 9 months to fully develop. And 9 months plus learning, experimental planning, analysis and thesis writing gets you uncomfortable close to the 3-4 years a PhD typically takes (or at least doesn't allow much back and forth iterating).

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#136

There have been several companies formed in the past few years whose premise is researching in industry anti-aging or basic science more generally (Calico, Altos Labs, Arcadia, etc.)... Does anyone understand the underlying economics or motivations? They can't be gambles when they raise $B's, and I'm too cynical to believe these are altruistic endeavors. Certainly there is research that cannot be reasonably expected…

I think aultruism is part of it, if you've seen a relative succumb to advancing age especially dementia it can be quite moving. But another less popular view I have is that many of these people have spent all their life focusing on the things of the world and the money and the grind and the etc, etc. Their focus is on the work the money the grind and so they simply want to continue getting a return on their investmen…

Im of the opinion that treating diseases caused by a weakening body is a net good.

But you are right ofcourse. All thats left for us is to decay beneath the soil or burn to ashes.

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#137

it's good to see billionaires putting money into health moonshots (vs real moonshots). Helps so many more people.

If immortality was somehow cracked, it would cause the end of civilization if it became available to everyone. Imagine the population of Earth ballooning to 12+ billion. Instead, it would be kept for the billionaires. Imagine the staggering inequality of 180-year-old trillionaires and their kin, that never ever relinquish their hordes. It's straight out of a cyberpunk dystopia. (Tessier-Ashpool comes to mind)

We're accustomed to thinking about the population boom, but the derivative looks like it peaked just before 1970 and there doesn't seem to be much in the way of it continuing to fall below 0%. While I personally feel that that's probably a good thing in the short term, in the longer term we will probably want to decrease the negative side of the population equation more than we want to increase the positive side.

That may be particularly true for billionaires, who profit off of a growth engine that is going to be under serious pressure once the population starts dropping for real. Increasing life span (in particular increasing the span of life not dominated by illness) could balance out quite a bit of declining fertility rate. And I for one think that if fertility became more dominated the people who want to be fertile, it would be a Good Thing.

I'm not going to worry about immortality, because I think it's still very very far out. Which means your trillionaires are about generational wealth. Generational wealth is lost by the first generation 70% of the time, by the second 90% of the time. It's not that big of a thing.

I'm just not too worried that 110 years of healthy life is going to tip the balance too far. It'll slow down progress some ("X advances one funeral at a time"), and we'll massively screw things up for a while, but long term it seems good to me.

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#138

I wish our brightest minds were all working in areas like this instead of social apps and advertising. Is there even any doubt that with a better understanding of biology we could meaningfully prolong the human lifespan? What are we doing working on apps lol.

So how can I, as a software developer, meaningfully contribute to this area? I would very much prefer to live forever.

You could gain computational biology experience from working at biotech until you have enough to work at one of these longevity startups.

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#139

I wish our brightest minds were all working in areas like this instead of social apps and advertising. Is there even any doubt that with a better understanding of biology we could meaningfully prolong the human lifespan? What are we doing working on apps lol.

So how can I, as a software developer, meaningfully contribute to this area? I would very much prefer to live forever.

Bioinformatics is a huge field and a lot of software developers are working there. It's science with multi-year career paths, so you cannot just start working on everything without learning the basics first. But with a bit of training, many former software developers have contributed as lab techs, PhD students or other types of associates.

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#140

I wish our brightest minds were all working in areas like this instead of social apps and advertising. Is there even any doubt that with a better understanding of biology we could meaningfully prolong the human lifespan? What are we doing working on apps lol.

So how can I, as a software developer, meaningfully contribute to this area? I would very much prefer to live forever.

most leading biohackers have a patreon or subscribestar page where you could help fund their research, that might be a start.
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