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A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

economist.com

71–80 of 214 posts

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#71

I love this. People are starting to realize how powerful the logic of life extension is. Think about this: if this startup succeeds only at extending human life expectancy by a single day , it's already worth it. A life is about 3e4 days, and there are 9e9 humans, so giving 1 extra day to every human is the equivalent of saving 3e5 lives.

A single day would be insignificant and very hard to measure.

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#72
post #59

Trying to fix aging for existing humans is like trying to patch a binary that's already running, it would be way easier to build new humans with better source code imo.

If you don't even have a compiler, it's easier to patch a binary that's already running than make one from scratch. That's a closer analogy to the situation under discussion.

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#73

it's good to see billionaires putting money into health moonshots (vs real moonshots). Helps so many more people.

If immortality was somehow cracked, it would cause the end of civilization if it became available to everyone. Imagine the population of Earth ballooning to 12+ billion. Instead, it would be kept for the billionaires. Imagine the staggering inequality of 180-year-old trillionaires and their kin, that never ever relinquish their hordes. It's straight out of a cyberpunk dystopia. (Tessier-Ashpool comes to mind)

That sounds terrifying. Imagine a 5 century reign by one and the same dictator. Can't think of too many positives for this scenario.

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#74

“A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.” – Max Planck[1] Often paraphrased as "Science progresses one funeral at a time." I don't think we really want immortality or unnatural longevity. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planck%27s_principle

I'd definitely want immortality in the sense of stopping physical (and mental) deterioration. You can always just commit suicide if you're done. I discuss this with friends and family occasionally, and they all seem to have these ideas that we're "only supposed to live 100 years or so". But that seems like a logical fallacy (appeal to nature) to me, it's not an actual argument. And sure, there are plenty of dystopian…

I, too, would rather not die. But "the only real problem" you see being overpopulation speaks to a limited effort in thinking out the consequences.

Let's imagine such a solution was available. Let's remember that insulin today is barely affordable to most people, a mere "stay alive and subsist" drug. So it's probably safe to assume that a literal immortality treatment would be only available to the most wealthy and powerful.

So, what we'd get is Nancy Pelosi, Mitch McConnell, Biden, Trump, Putin, Kim Jong-Il, Clarence Thomas, and many others still alive by the year 2250, with no signs of slowing down.

Just imagine how much the world would cease to change if the people running it never experienced turnover. "The unification of humanity" - yeah right! We can't even get a minimum wage increase, and Russia is actively planning an invasion. The only hope for these things is that these people will die, and be replaced by younger generations who grew up with different ideals.

I hope to be cryogenically frozen and one day awake into a world like that of the Culture in the books of Iain Banks, but I know on some level that this isn't just decades or centuries away: it's millennia.

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#75
post #26

Another article covering this with an interesting quote, "Mid-life crisis? It’s been said that young people dream of being rich, and rich people dream of being young." [0] [0] https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/09/04/1034364/altos-la...

I'm no demographer, but I would hazard a guess that >1% of folks are young

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#76
post #18

“A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.” – Max Planck[1] Often paraphrased as "Science progresses one funeral at a time." I don't think we really want immortality or unnatural longevity. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planck%27s_principle

I would agree “we” don’t. Whoever “we” is. The problem is the hypothetical billionaires and politicians expanding their power with elongated lifespans. Imagine the ramifications if Supreme Court justices lived 50+ more years, for one example.

Should watch "Altered Carbon" if you haven't already...

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#77
post #30

If we'd all just cleaned up diets and got in shape, Covid wouldn't have been such a big deal. You can do lots, such as diet and exercise, to live better and longer, but nobody does. We want a magic pill.

Not only that but with universal healthcare meaning that I'm subsidizing someone else's poor health habits, I want everyone on a government-prescribed workout + diet plan ASAP. Then again maybe COVID has been a blessing for culling the weak with minimal end-of-life costs, natural selection and all. Not going to be a popular opinion, but that's the emotionless conclusions of a purely scientific worldview.

> Not only that but with universal healthcare meaning that I'm subsidizing someone else's poor health habits

Fyi you're doing that with your insurance too

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#79
post #8

This all feels like the Ocean's 11 version of biotech The straight laced CEO as foil with an amazing reputation and a ticking biological clock (1) The mad scientist known for mixing human and monkey embryos (2) The beautiful and brilliant husband & wife whiz kid team (3) All funded by the secretive Russian billionaire with questionable fortune originations (4) Grabbing the popcorn (1) https://altoslabs.com/team/execu…

Seems legit, they just need to add the Pharma bro and Rachel Dolezal and it'll be a true shit show.

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#80

“A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.” – Max Planck[1] Often paraphrased as "Science progresses one funeral at a time." I don't think we really want immortality or unnatural longevity. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planck%27s_principle

I'd definitely want immortality in the sense of stopping physical (and mental) deterioration. You can always just commit suicide if you're done. I discuss this with friends and family occasionally, and they all seem to have these ideas that we're "only supposed to live 100 years or so". But that seems like a logical fallacy (appeal to nature) to me, it's not an actual argument. And sure, there are plenty of dystopian…

If we were to immediately acquire immortality then society would need to evolve a structure that deliberately kills ideas and pushes itself past ideologic ruts, etc. Do you really want boomers running government and owning land for longer? Society would be down right miserable. Think about it in terms other than “yourself transcending all your peers” for a moment.

It may sound cool to you to live to see the day we colonize planets, but your entire comment reeks of narcissism and maybe regret. I’ll give you that there are perhaps a few scenarios where extended longevity would be convenient, like allowing a research group a little extra time to achieve a likely breakthrough, but beyond that I really can’t imagine society where everyone lives forever looking remotely like it does today. If the only problem you can imagine is overpopulation then you aren't really thinking critically at all. Why do Tolkien elves always fade away?

We’re supposed to invest our resources as a human race into raising the next generation to achieve the things we collectively dream of but couldn't in out generation. Sure if we can extend lifetimes gradually over time and reduce deterioration and suffering that’s one thing and I believe we’d adapt naturally. But arguing for immortality by default right now? That is perverse and not remotely biologically appropriate. You’ve got one shot on this earth to make a difference. Don’t squander it. Don’t steal from future generations. Listen to the wisdom of others around you. And learn to embrace your mortality, because you will die.

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