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A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

economist.com

11–20 of 214 posts

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#11
post #5

There's nothing Silicon Valley billionaires will throw money at faster than the ability to live longer/forever. Makes sense in a way, but pretty much everyone in the field will tell you that the science is simply not there yet. Calico is similarly funded and has been at it for a decade now, with nothing to show for it.

Science may not be there yet but throwing money at it will help in the long run.

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#12
post #5

There's nothing Silicon Valley billionaires will throw money at faster than the ability to live longer/forever. Makes sense in a way, but pretty much everyone in the field will tell you that the science is simply not there yet. Calico is similarly funded and has been at it for a decade now, with nothing to show for it.

I have snake oil for sale

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#13

There have been several companies formed in the past few years whose premise is researching in industry anti-aging or basic science more generally (Calico, Altos Labs, Arcadia, etc.)... Does anyone understand the underlying economics or motivations? They can't be gambles when they raise $B's, and I'm too cynical to believe these are altruistic endeavors. Certainly there is research that cannot be reasonably expected…

Researching immortality or unnatural longevity isn't worth the investment for a society because a society of immortals becomes either stagnant or unsustainable. But making individual billionaires immortal is something billionaires might find worth investing in.

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#14
post #5

There's nothing Silicon Valley billionaires will throw money at faster than the ability to live longer/forever. Makes sense in a way, but pretty much everyone in the field will tell you that the science is simply not there yet. Calico is similarly funded and has been at it for a decade now, with nothing to show for it.

Pretty simple. Fixing all of our diseases is actually low hanging fruit.

Head transplants onto monoclonal human bodies grown in a lab. Gestated in chimeric pigs, genetically or surgically decephalized before birth, electronically innervated and artificially sustained until use in science or medicine.

Bodies are O-, HLA neutral, and do not require immunosuppressants.

Transplant beneficiaries receive a new and healthy thymus and immune system, unaged cardiovascular and pulmonary system.

Not only a fix for aging, this would solve heart disease, organ failure, AIDS (flush existing cells), and most non-brain/non-blood cancers. It's the fabled cure all.

Brain age would still be an issue, but with a renewed cardiovascular and immune system it may be prolonged or even rejuvenated to a degree.

The technologies are here today. We just have to assemble them.

After delivering on the health promises, there's all sorts of optimizations. You could give people the body they wanted. Male, female, short, tall, strong, athletic, skinny, tan, whatever. Even transgenic with all sorts of modifications. No body odor, big muscles, fur, new skin and hair colors... there's practically unlimited potential.

If I ever have a billion dollar exit, I'm doing it.

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#15
post #5

There's nothing Silicon Valley billionaires will throw money at faster than the ability to live longer/forever. Makes sense in a way, but pretty much everyone in the field will tell you that the science is simply not there yet. Calico is similarly funded and has been at it for a decade now, with nothing to show for it.

Your post seems to imply that because the science isn't there yet, it doesn't make sense to throw money at it.

But isn't the whole point that you're using the money to bring on the scientists and give them the resources in order to develop the science?

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#16
post #5

There's nothing Silicon Valley billionaires will throw money at faster than the ability to live longer/forever. Makes sense in a way, but pretty much everyone in the field will tell you that the science is simply not there yet. Calico is similarly funded and has been at it for a decade now, with nothing to show for it.

I was always for idea of defeating aging, and moving on on your own terms.

Until I watch Altered Carbon, I think it premise of rich capturing the technology and using it to divide haves from have-nots is pretty realistic.

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#17

There have been several companies formed in the past few years whose premise is researching in industry anti-aging or basic science more generally (Calico, Altos Labs, Arcadia, etc.)... Does anyone understand the underlying economics or motivations? They can't be gambles when they raise $B's, and I'm too cynical to believe these are altruistic endeavors. Certainly there is research that cannot be reasonably expected…

The straightforward and cynical answer is that the people funding these things have basically unlimited money, at least for practical purposes, but as with everyone alive, they have limited time. Therefore it's a perfectly rational trade to give up even a substantial percent of their money in exchange for even the possibility of more time (especially because if you have a lot of money, more time means you can turn it into even more money).

But also, while a lot of the headlines are about living longer, the research is largely about treating aging as a disease, or at least a cause of diseases like Alzheimer's, etc. Even if you don't actually extend human lifespan, you keep people healthier much longer, which among other things has enormous economic value (people don't required as much expensive medical treatment and can continue to be productive for longer).

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#18

“A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.” – Max Planck[1] Often paraphrased as "Science progresses one funeral at a time." I don't think we really want immortality or unnatural longevity. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planck%27s_principle

I would agree “we” don’t. Whoever “we” is. The problem is the hypothetical billionaires and politicians expanding their power with elongated lifespans. Imagine the ramifications if Supreme Court justices lived 50+ more years, for one example.

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#19
post #5

There's nothing Silicon Valley billionaires will throw money at faster than the ability to live longer/forever. Makes sense in a way, but pretty much everyone in the field will tell you that the science is simply not there yet. Calico is similarly funded and has been at it for a decade now, with nothing to show for it.

The good old Larry Ellison gambit https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zRN7XLCRhc&t=37m36s

Re: A $3B bet on finding the fountain of youth

#20
post #5

There's nothing Silicon Valley billionaires will throw money at faster than the ability to live longer/forever. Makes sense in a way, but pretty much everyone in the field will tell you that the science is simply not there yet. Calico is similarly funded and has been at it for a decade now, with nothing to show for it.

This is such a confusing attitude along a number of axes.

1. Science isn't there so we shouldn't spend billions yet.

Maybe spending billions can advance the science sufficiently?

2. There is a "there" to get to.

People regularly spend millions in healthcare costs to live a few extra years. What is the "there" that we're imagining? Would someone with >$100B not spend $1B to live 10 more years? You don't need a fountain of youth, just more time in a not-terrible state of health to be worth all this investment and more.

3. There is a there to get to.

This isn't like the discovery of fission. It might take a dozen different interventions to provide another decade of life to an individual, or a disjoint set of a dozen interventions to provide another decade of life to people in general. One discovery probably won't cut it, and that's ok.

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