You aren't "modelling the world." You're trying to substitute some quick logic, instead, which just doesn't work for the vast majority of real world problems. You have to imagine yourself in the future to get the right answer, but you won't. Why do people avoid this?
In my experience, because anxiety. A little quick logic doesn't bring up emotions in anything like the way literally putting yourself into imagined scenarios and walk-throughs does, particularly ones where everything doesn't go right. I share this in some ways, due to a nasty childhood; but I have a friend who has racked up a lifetime of very bad decisions from bad marriages to dead pets, which continue on every month, every day 'cause there's no way in hell she's gonna imagine nuttin', never. Needless to say, her childhood was probably nastier than mine.
A few months ago, when I delivered a radiant heater to her apartment when she had COVID-19, she spoke to me, thanking me from just behind the door right as I put the heater in front of her door just a foot away, with windows open in her apartment blowing air out around the door. Goodbye to a couple weeks for me. Logic, no visual imagination or other simulation 'cause it made her too anxious. She literally didn't grok that I was inches away or could be. Just used some logic about politeness. I was stunned she was within 10 feet of that door. I never would have been. I use my visual imagination in life and death situations, at least; and I'm slowly expanding how much I'm willing to use it.
See ffggh and "simulation," here. Same point, but they said it quicker.