I think there's room for a "battlebots meets online poker" product. Imagine buying your bot a real money budget and setting it loose in a tournament to combat other bots.
But hasn't the problem been solved? Two bots would play perfectly and walk away with roughly 50% of the pot.
This article is about how humans have been memorizing the variations - akin to chess openings - in order to play as perfectly as possible.
Similar story here. I’ve always played, mostly online, before Black Friday (pretty sure I was a minor when it happened) but played all the offshore sites through college. Professional software career took off and bounced out, finally ~3y ago I decided to get back into it and I would only play challenging games (only thing challenging about a 1/3 or tourneys is the grind). So, started with 2/5, within a week was playi…
When you say tech industry pays more, I'm assuming the effective long-run hourly earnings of poker players is way less glamorous than it looks from an outsider seeing highlights? Doing a basic google search led me to https://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/ranking/6737/ , which seems to suggest that 81 players earned over 1mm USD in 2021. But presumably those players don't earn that YoY, and even if they did, plenty more so…
Those aren’t net of buy ins. Negreanu for example won $3.1M, but spent $2.56M in buy ins, so net profit was around $600k (doesn’t account for all his content ofc, but that’s not every player)
Similar story here. I’ve always played, mostly online, before Black Friday (pretty sure I was a minor when it happened) but played all the offshore sites through college. Professional software career took off and bounced out, finally ~3y ago I decided to get back into it and I would only play challenging games (only thing challenging about a 1/3 or tourneys is the grind). So, started with 2/5, within a week was playi…
When you say tech industry pays more, I'm assuming the effective long-run hourly earnings of poker players is way less glamorous than it looks from an outsider seeing highlights? Doing a basic google search led me to https://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/ranking/6737/ , which seems to suggest that 81 players earned over 1mm USD in 2021. But presumably those players don't earn that YoY, and even if they did, plenty more so…
FanaHOVA mentioned the main thing you missed. One other thing I'd mention is that a lot of pros have staking arrangements (the article briefly mentions some versions of them). For example, I know one pro (who's won one of the more prestigious WSOP bracelets) who gets 30% of his tournament winnings in exchange for having all his entry fees paid by his backer. I suspect he's traded off more upside in favor of stability than most, but there's a lot of deals out there where the players aren't taking home anywhere close to 100% of their public winnings.
> I wrote probably the first online texas holdem game, played on IRC, around 1994. Back then in rec.gambling blackjack teams were forming and instead of joining a blackjack team I started to play poker, because it was more fun than counting cards. I wrote the game so I could play against other people and was immediately a winning player in low limit games of the time in lake charles and vegas. However even in the 90s…
I'm pretty sure it was Vanessa Selbst who said that, not Doug Polk
> Probably the one biggest misconception people have is that pros have sick reading abilities since TV likes to emphasize staredowns, when the actual single biggest skill long term pros have is the ability to lose hand after hand for hours and still play their best game. This is absolutely true, but let me add to this: live pros like Phil Ivey, who have played the game in person virtually their entire lives, do have…
I think old school pros like Ivey and Dwan are very good at reading the entire table. Dwan emphatically and correctly states who had the best hand against his bluff [1]. Ivey emphatically and correctly basically calls a guy a liar at the end of a hand over what the guy said he folded [2]. They have amazing "situational awareness". [1] https://youtu.be/dS_uv88YuPs?t=179 [2] https://youtu.be/IN1bW4jo4i4?t=72
Indeed, but it should be made clear that these kinds of reads aren't necessarily (or likely) coming from physical appearances alone - there's all sorts of metadata to consider. For example, in the Dwan hand, the timing of Eastgate's call on the flop tipped his relative hand strength, showing that he had a very strong hand but also capping his range. A hand weaker than trips would have deliberated between folding and calling, and a hand stronger than trips with a weak kicker would have likely paused to consider raising. Of course, savvy players can fake these timing tells, but Dwan also knew that Eastgate was out of his depth (a tournament player making a charity appearance on a televised cash game because he'd just won the WSOPME and had yolo money), so he was unlikely to be doing this - more situational metadata.
I think there's room for a "battlebots meets online poker" product. Imagine buying your bot a real money budget and setting it loose in a tournament to combat other bots.
I'm actually working on this as a side project. I've been dragging my feet as I wasn't sure anyone would want to "code to play" and had no real marketing plan. It's a fun project though, especially trying to design in a way that proves I'm not manipulating the deck behind the scenes. Email in profile if anyone is up for being an alpha player.
I've been thinking about a similar project. Do you intend to have it be only bots? I think it would be interesting to also allow human players to play against the bots (perhaps incentivized by getting preferential rakeback deals compared to the Bot players?). Many players fret about bots on other sites; it would be cool to enable those of us who want the challenge play them knowingly and with a slight financial handicap :)
Books (there's very few good ones) Training videos 1-on-1 coaching PioSolver (and other similar software) For any of these to stick, you need to spend some amount of time studying by yourself; just consuming learning material and playing isn't enough.
Could you recommend a couple of books for a start?
Modern Poker Theory by Michael Acevedo is considered a contemporary gold standard.
There is some misconception about the optimal strategy in the article.
You can only win in poker if you recognize how your opponent deviates from the optimal strategy and then play a strategy to exploit him. You have to play an exploitable strategy yourself to exploit someone else.
Think about playing rock paper scissors agains an opponent who always chooses rock. If you still play the optimal strategy (choosing randomly) you gain nothing...
This whole thing is a misconception about poker.
Poker is never about calculating odds in your head, but bluffing convincingly and reading the opponents tells.
Computers have no tells, and I doubt if any ML can learn to recognize tells of people, since they are very subtle.
The statistics part anyone with basic math skills can figure in their head - that doesnt guarantee any win.
For some time I've been pondering about creating a multiplayer poker AI that would (1) play reasonably well but not at a superhuman level (2) not require expensive hardware. Frustratingly, this seems to be an unsolved problem. Pluribus is only 6-max, requires fixed starting stack sizes and requires a lot of hardware.
I mean, it may not have been publicly solved, but there are definitely bots out there in the wild that are beating human fields on online poker sites.
But also I think Pokersnowie is a bot made with more traditional ML methods (i.e. training on hand histories rather than solving an entire game tree with CFR), which basically fits the description.