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Israel Finds Fourth Covid Booster Is Ineffective

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Re: Israel Finds Fourth Covid Booster Is Ineffective

#261

Post by pipodeclown »

version_five wrote: post #18

If I understand correctly, israel mandates a third shot (to do normal stuff), as do many places in north america, either now or soon. And I can only imagine many people would be happy to mandate a fourth as soon as possible. What I find most frustrating is that politicians are happy to make these mandates live, during an ongoing situation where we actually don't know a lot about how effective things are (and in the c…

I really don't get this 'precedent being set' argument. I do agree that these extraordinary powers being granted to governments should have a due date build into the law as to make clear that this is a temporary measure for an extraordinary situation. Unfortunately, in many places, that's not the case. In my view, extraordinary situations do however require and justify extraordinary measures. You didn't hear people during WWII saying they were terrified of precedents being set by the government forcing blackouts and curfews on them? It was understood that that extraordinary situation required extraordinary measures and nobody expected governments to continue those measures after the imminent danger had passed because some precedent was set.

People are rioting all over the world in the middle of a pandemic because they have to stay indoors a bit, and life is being made a bit more difficult if you don't want to get a shot. What do you seriously think the response will be if those types of measures would continue once the pandemic has passed?

Re: Israel Finds Fourth Covid Booster Is Ineffective

#262

Post by majewsky »

native_samples wrote: post #241
majewsky wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> number of days between first immunization and COVID diagnosis Survivorship bias. People end up in this graph because they got a COVID diagnosis after the first immunization, but before getting the second immunization. That's only a very short time window on most vaccination schedules (3-6 weeks), so the only surprise here is that there is a long trail of people who got the first shot and then held off on the second…

People not getting second shots is not a surprise, anyone who has a bad reaction to the first will do that. The lack of any proper tracking of such reactions means it has to be inferred from the data, but the explanation there is fairly obvious. W.R.T. taking it down, if public health statistics is open to misinterpretation they should explain why and how to correctly interpret it. Doing that sort of work is the reas…

> People not getting second shots is not a surprise, anyone who has a bad reaction to the first will do that.

I don't know any such person, but I know lots of people who had immune reactions to the first shot (like a localized inflammation) and who got the second shot anyway because that's nothing out of the ordinary. Including myself. In fact, most doctors will tell you outright that this is probably going to happen when you get the shot. After all, the vaccine is supposed to elicit an immune reaction. I would personally be more worried if I receive a vaccine and there is no immune reaction at all.

> you seem to be implying that the shape of the graph is expected for any such plot for any vaccine

For any vaccine with a two-shot schedule, yes. Most people will be getting the second shot after N weeks, so if you plot the incidence of anything across all people who have only received the first shot, you will have the bulk of the distribution between 0 and N weeks because receiving the second shot removes people from the statistical population.

Re: Israel Finds Fourth Covid Booster Is Ineffective

#263

Post by heavyset_go »

ceejayoz wrote: post #244
kcplate wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the meaningful data which is increased illness severity and higher chances of death are concentrated in 65+ age brackets which are 95%/88%/62% (1/2/3 shot vaccinated) in the US. As you fall in ages it’s less % vaccinated, but also the chance of a severe case among the unvaccinated drops too…dramatically. So yes, tens of millions unvaccinated, but also tens of millions that can’t really be measured as effectively…

If we can have statistically valid results from 40k clinical trial participants, 5% of the 65+ population being unvaccinated is plenty of data to base conclusions on.

One issue I'd could imagine is that it might be difficult to slice a representative sample out of those 5% of people, whereas a clinical trial is set up from the get-go to enroll individuals that would make up a representative sample of the intended recipients of the drug/procedure/device that's being studied.

Re: Israel Finds Fourth Covid Booster Is Ineffective

#264

Post by nojokes »

encryptluks2 wrote: post #246
nojokes wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

New variants need more mutation cycles. If vaccines slow down transmission (what they do) then they contribute to lower probability of emergence of new variants.

There is already plenty of proof that vaccines cause viruses to mutate to become more virulent, and with Omicron transmission and replication are not being slowed down like before. In fact, recent studies show triple-vaxxed more likely to get Omicron than unvaxxed.

You mean that chicken thing? Total different. But it could have happened. Sars-cov died off because it was too deadly and not enough infectious. Imaging there was a vaccine against Sars-cov to make it less deadly. Perhaps we could have kept it in circulation and natural selection would have eliminated all the anti-vaxxers...

But Sars-cov-2 is different. It is without doubt in circulation and mutating. Less it mutates, less new versions it can make. Because COVID-19 vaccines limit replication and transmission, they also limit new variant emergence. Had this person that gave omicron to the world been vaccinated, omicron would have lost its change.

Now about omicron infecting more people who have gotten booster is completely wrong. Totally. It is just your anti-vaxxer mind messing with you. This is the way your dark mind functions - making things up.

Re: Israel Finds Fourth Covid Booster Is Ineffective

#265

Post by kcplate »

heavyset_go wrote: post #263
ceejayoz wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we can have statistically valid results from 40k clinical trial participants, 5% of the 65+ population being unvaccinated is plenty of data to base conclusions on.

One issue I'd could imagine is that it might be difficult to slice a representative sample out of those 5% of people, whereas a clinical trial is set up from the get-go to enroll individuals that would make up a representative sample of the intended recipients of the drug/procedure/device that's being studied.

I think there would be difficulty just to get enough willing participants out of the 5%. I suspect that group at this point has to be the most extreme skeptical holdouts or religious objectors and would likely be adverse to any clinical trials.

Re: Israel Finds Fourth Covid Booster Is Ineffective

#266

Post by native_samples »

majewsky wrote: post #262
native_samples wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People not getting second shots is not a surprise, anyone who has a bad reaction to the first will do that. The lack of any proper tracking of such reactions means it has to be inferred from the data, but the explanation there is fairly obvious. W.R.T. taking it down, if public health statistics is open to misinterpretation they should explain why and how to correctly interpret it. Doing that sort of work is the reas…

> People not getting second shots is not a surprise, anyone who has a bad reaction to the first will do that. I don't know any such person, but I know lots of people who had immune reactions to the first shot (like a localized inflammation) and who got the second shot anyway because that's nothing out of the ordinary. Including myself. In fact, most doctors will tell you outright that this is probably going to happen…

That's true, but there seem to be two problems with explaining the data that way.

Firstly, the second shot graph shows the same thing: a clear wave that peaks 10 days after vaccination.

Secondly, if that were the cause you'd expect to see a very different almost square wave like graph, with a steady background rate of cases that the shot failed to stop followed by a clear drop as the cohort moves on more or less simultaneously. The data doesn't show that.

It seems in Alberta the window between first and second shots is 8 weeks or 56 days. I've been using two weeks as an example but that's too short.

https://www.albertahealthservices.ca/topics/Page17389.aspx

If we select the 56 day period (the graph is zoomable by dragging a region), then we see a large wave that starts near zero, peaks near day 10 and then by day 56 has dissipated. This cannot be the result of people moving into the other cohort because it's all over before anyone becomes eligible for the second shot.

W.R.T. reactions - it's interesting how much people's experiences here vary. Almost everyone me and my girlfriend know locally who took the vaccines have had some kind of bad side effect. I suspect there may be several causes of this divergence:

1. Differences in brands used. Moderna is 3x the strength of Pfizer. All data shows Moderna causes way worse side effects and especially after boosters. But, some places use Moderna a lot (like where we live) and others don't. Of the people I know who live in the UK, where AZ was standard, none have reported any side effects.

2. Differences in age groups? Side effects seem to be worse or at least more noticeable amongst the young.

3. Filter bubbles. Our friends know we didn't take the vaccines (so far), so we're "safe" to talk to about side effects and reactions. If you're the sort of person who has publicly proclaimed that you Fucking Love Science!™ - as many people have done - then it seems likely people won't want to mention any effects they did have with you.

It's especially easy for that to occur because all the bad reactions we have heard about are the sort of thing that isn't going to be immediately visible if you meet someone: a day off work due to "sickness", disrupted or stopped periods, and in one case sadly a heart attack. That sort of thing is invisible if the affected person doesn't confide.

Re: Israel Finds Fourth Covid Booster Is Ineffective

#267

Post by encryptluks2 »

nojokes wrote: post #264
encryptluks2 wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is already plenty of proof that vaccines cause viruses to mutate to become more virulent, and with Omicron transmission and replication are not being slowed down like before. In fact, recent studies show triple-vaxxed more likely to get Omicron than unvaxxed.

You mean that chicken thing? Total different. But it could have happened. Sars-cov died off because it was too deadly and not enough infectious. Imaging there was a vaccine against Sars-cov to make it less deadly. Perhaps we could have kept it in circulation and natural selection would have eliminated all the anti-vaxxers... But Sars-cov-2 is different. It is without doubt in circulation and mutating. Less it mutates…

Literally data coming out of Denmark and UK on their government websites says this but your provax mind will find a way to make it political

Re: Israel Finds Fourth Covid Booster Is Ineffective

#268

Post by robbrown451 »

bagacrap wrote: post #249
robbrown451 wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would imagine we'd have the capacity to make as many vaccines as someone will pay for. Yes the factories have to be ramped up but that can be done quickly enough. If those low to middle income countries were offering big bucks for vaccines, the vaccine makers would have just put more resources on it. The only reason it might make sense that we should stop boosting because it is taking them away from people who need…

"as many as someone will pay for" doesn't contradict "we don't have the capacity". This is a capital allocation problem and dedicating 100% of the world gdp to vaccine production will not improve our overall health and prosperity.

But no one was suggesting " dedicating 100% of the world gdp" to vaccine production.

I'm simply saying that using more boosters in wealthy countries in no way depletes the vaccine, or raises the prices for it, in poorer countries.

I mean, would you agree that wealthy people buying more television sets does not in any way reduce the ability of poorer people to buy television sets?

Re: Israel Finds Fourth Covid Booster Is Ineffective

#269

Post by andrei_says_ »

yucky wrote: post #127
andrei_says_ wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the US hospitals are private, charge astronomical amounts for the tiniest things and their price lists are secret. It is horrifying, brutal, inhumane. Also hospitals intentionally understaff, and pay their staff the absolute minimum while paying millions and millions to their CEOs. In addition to recommending procedures treatments and drugs as profit maximizers.

>Also hospitals intentionally understaff, and pay their staff the absolute minimum Nurses and doctors make more in the US than any other country. Are you referring to other support staff?

Is it difficult to imagine that U.S. nurses can be paid better than nurses in other countries but at the same time not paid well enough and exploited beyond their breaking point?

A bit of context:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/19/opinion/nurses-staffing-h...

Here's a response by an anonymous staff member at LA's Children's Hospital:

( https://old.reddit.com/r/LosAngeles/comments/s7wfqo/we_know_... )

Summary: Hospitals cut costs by staffing the bare minimum. Patients aren’t receiving the care the should be. Nurses are experiencing moral distress and leaving en masse.

I work at CHLA. We are losing experienced nurses due to the lowest wages in the LA area for the level of care we give. Shameful for a hospital that is Best Children’s Hospital in the west.

The pay discrepancy between the executives and staff is criminal

We need more publicity about this. Help the nurses out and let’s get more eyes on this issue, particularly CHLA. Celebrities love that place and use it for PR often.

Let’s give the nurses some badly needed PR. They are non-union and notoriously underpaid. Best care for kids maybe but also best kept secret in worker’s dissatisfaction

Re: Israel Finds Fourth Covid Booster Is Ineffective

#270

Post by nojokes »

encryptluks2 wrote: post #267
nojokes wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You mean that chicken thing? Total different. But it could have happened. Sars-cov died off because it was too deadly and not enough infectious. Imaging there was a vaccine against Sars-cov to make it less deadly. Perhaps we could have kept it in circulation and natural selection would have eliminated all the anti-vaxxers... But Sars-cov-2 is different. It is without doubt in circulation and mutating. Less it mutates…

Literally data coming out of Denmark and UK on their government websites says this but your provax mind will find a way to make it political

Right, those negative efficiency numbers that drive every anti-vaxxer crazy and anybody ignoring them like there is there nothing to see. Must be hard. It is right there.

Has it occurred to anybody that there really is nothing to see there? Can it for example be that delta and omicron are circulating in slightly different populations where omicron is more prevalent among vaccinated and delta among unvaccinated?

Or there could be some disparities in populations, for example young people not getting vaccinated but getting infected by delta instead of omicron not not getting infected because of some other measures like school antigen testing?

You can investigate this information https://covidtracker.fr/vaximpact/

It is mostly omicron in France by now.

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