I think it's strange how realized accidents (i.e. that actually happened) are not factored in at all when people discuss FSD beta. Though FSD beta has been out for over a year I can't find much about for example people dying as a result of FSD beta.
Analysis shows Tesla FSD makes critical driving errors every 8 minutes
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Re: Analysis shows Tesla FSD makes critical driving errors every 8 minutes
#22Earlier quoted context omitted.
So he has a motive, but how is he wrong? By any measure the low quality of FSD's performance is seriously dangerous. That regulators allow "beta" software like this to be used by end users on public roads is scandalous.
>>In the 4th quarter, we recorded one crash for every 4.31 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology (Autosteer and active safety features). For drivers who were not using Autopilot technology (no Autosteer and active safety features), we recorded one crash for every 1.59 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile cr…
I own two older Teslas, so I don't have FSD, only the previous gen autopilot. I am still a big fan of Tesla in general and hope they continue to push forward with FSD, but I will point out one very big hole in the statistics quoted above.
The 1 in 4.31m statistic counts only actual crashes. To get a better sense of the actual risk, I believe you need to consider how many incidents would have resulted in a crash if the driver did not take over and correct for the FSD's mistake.
Re: Analysis shows Tesla FSD makes critical driving errors every 8 minutes
#23I think it's strange how realized accidents (i.e. that actually happened) are not factored in at all when people discuss FSD beta. Though FSD beta has been out for over a year I can't find much about for example people dying as a result of FSD beta.
For the most part, FSD beta is limited to the low speed roads (sub 50mph), so there really should be fewer possibilities for actual death (especially considering how safe Tesla's are in crashes in the first place). I suspect if there are accidents it'd be mostly fender-benders. Not sure dying should be the bar here, more like any accidents in general.
Re: Analysis shows Tesla FSD makes critical driving errors every 8 minutes
#24Earlier quoted context omitted.
So he has a motive, but how is he wrong? By any measure the low quality of FSD's performance is seriously dangerous. That regulators allow "beta" software like this to be used by end users on public roads is scandalous.
>>In the 4th quarter, we recorded one crash for every 4.31 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology (Autosteer and active safety features). For drivers who were not using Autopilot technology (no Autosteer and active safety features), we recorded one crash for every 1.59 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile cr…
Are those numbers directly comparable? Autosteer, etc. are only used in clear weather conditions with good lane markings. Obviously automated systems will work better in those conditions, but so do humans. But humans drive in all conditions.
Re: Analysis shows Tesla FSD makes critical driving errors every 8 minutes
#25Earlier quoted context omitted.
New things are inherently riskier than old things. How do you expect to see progress without experimentation and short feedback cycles?
There are ways to make new things safely without selling a technology that absolutely doesn't work to the public. What Waymo and Cruise are doing for example in this case
There are ways to make new things safely without selling a technology that absolutely doesn't work to the public.
Waymo and Cruise are bad examples because they are both far, far behind Tesla...