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An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

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Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#391

Post by chii »

eric_cc wrote: post #248
01acheru wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe that you can buy bread with USD, or a house, or a car, or pay rent, or insurance, or gas, a coke on a vending machine, or stocks, or... well there are a lot of things you can do with USD that you cannot do with BTC right now.

This advantage for $USD is already beginning to vanish. Assuming it does, are there any other reasons to be bullish $USD?

> This advantage for $USD is already beginning to vanish.

this is an incorrect premise from which to draw any conclusions tho. Hypothetically, if this was true, then it would also imply the world economy and order to be changing, such that your way of life is going to be turned upside down.

For example, world war 3.

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#392

Post by chii »

fleddr wrote: post #327
alecst wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A counterpoint would be that what some call the intrinsic value is the expected future share price based on expected future revenues. There might or might not be future revenue for SNAP, but there is no revenue for a digital currency. But I do think digital currency has intrinsic value, in that for now, it affords you anonymity to commit crimes in a way that ordinary currency does not. I’m not happy about it, but thi…

Cash is used for more crime than crypto. London city pretty much is the epicenter of money laundering and financial crime.

Is it though?

Cash may be more in absolute value terms, but in per dollar terms, is cash used more for crimes than regular transactions than crypto?

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#393

Post by chii »

Tenoke wrote: post #374
mcguire wrote: post #370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

" If I suddenly own 100% of Tesla the stock would crash. " This is a nonsensical statement. If you own 100% of Tesla then it has no stock price. You would also have control of its physical and intellectual assets as well as receiving its current and future revenue streams.

Yes, yes, in theory it has no stock price. In practice if I do want to sell - privately or not - I wouldn't get anywhere as much as the price was beforehand.

> I wouldn't get anywhere as much as the price was beforehand.

that's not a conclusion, but an assumption you make.

The price of a stock can only be found by transacting, and if this isn't taking place, you cannot draw any conclusions about the price of a stock. You can only guess it - via some method like cashflow analysis, or some other model.

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#394

Post by chii »

eric_cc wrote: post #200
R0b0t1 wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're not wrong but there's plenty of contemptuous cryptobros who got wealthy via luck and won't admit it.

How exactly is it luck to recognize the value in crypto and buy a bunch? Because that's not exactly luck. That's recognizing value and managing risk successfully. It's true that some people just FOMO into anything going up. But those types will end up losing all their "gains" in due time anyways.

> How exactly is it luck to recognize the value in crypto and buy a bunch? Because that's not exactly luck.

that's what luck is - they didn't recognize the value, but speculated on the potential value when it originally was valueless.

It could've crashed and burned, and it was luck that it didn't.

It's like seeing a lotto ticket, and claiming that you recognized the value of it (after the ticket has been shown to be a winning one).

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#395

Post by Tenoke »

chii wrote: post #393
Tenoke wrote: post #374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, yes, in theory it has no stock price. In practice if I do want to sell - privately or not - I wouldn't get anywhere as much as the price was beforehand.

> I wouldn't get anywhere as much as the price was beforehand. that's not a conclusion, but an assumption you make. The price of a stock can only be found by transacting, and if this isn't taking place, you cannot draw any conclusions about the price of a stock. You can only guess it - via some method like cashflow analysis, or some other model.

It's pretty obvious we are indeed guessing given that this is a hypothetical. My guess is that if suddenly I own 100% of Tesla, the company will be worth a lot less after that. It is clearly not based on actual transactions or offers to need to specify that it was a guess.

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#396

Post by mbesto »

ptero wrote: post #239
mbesto wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My guess is that most people that I know that buy BTC, either directly or via some holding schema, do it for the speculation I think you're right. But then isn't it essentially just a digital form a gold bar with less utility?

I think the vast majority of the people buying gold bars (or their digital equivalents, like shares of physical gold holding funds) do this to hedge a variety of life risks and value a relatively low volatility. Gold prices do fluctuate, but over the long term (decades and centuries) an ounce of gold generally held its inflation-adjusted value. I suspect buyers of gold would see a lot of problems with BTC price swing…

> but over the long term (decades and centuries) an ounce of gold generally held its inflation-adjusted value.

You sure about that? You woulda been better off holding SPY for 50 years than gold.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/08/gold-as-an-inflation-hedge-h...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/gold-as-an-inflation-hedge-what...

Now if you're talking about centuries then sure, but thats a pretty much impossible comparison to make since the advent of alternative investing strategies.

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#397

Post by mbesto »

mthoms wrote: post #344
mbesto wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

PS - I'm an investor in a fund that trades on it both going up and down (i.e. volatility).

How does one find such a fund?

I've been told there are hundreds of crypto hedge funds operating now. I happen to have a connection to a friend who runs one. Since most of them can't actively advertise and only cater to accredited investors, I suspect it's harder to "find" them.

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#398

Post by SgtBastard »

eric_cc wrote: post #352
catillac wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I assumed making money was your metric, but if the metric is “change in currency from fiat to digital” I would argue that after nearly fifteen years of little adoption for mainstream, lack of ability to use cryptocurrency for anything but black market goods and super niche products, and what seems like an utter chaotic ecosystem dominated by con artists, cryptocurrencies are a pretty abject failure on that metric as…

> lack of ability to use cryptocurrency You can transact at any store that accepts credit cards with a crypto credit card. There are countless uses for blockchains now from DeFi, gaming, social networks, NFTs, entertainment streaming, DAO’s and decentralized governance, and on and on the list goes. I recommend you catch up to 2022 crypto if you don’t already know that.

This is such a bad faith argument - you are transacting at any store in the fiat currency that store accepts and not crypto. That a service exists to seamlessly deduct an amount of crypto equivalent to that fiat is no more novel than one providing the same service between two fiat currencies, gold or Nuka cola caps.

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#399

Post by mostly_harmless »

eric_cc wrote: post #247
CaptainZapp wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What is the bull case for $USD? What properties does it have that make it superior to currencies like $BTC in your opinion? That I can spend USD in just about any shop or for any transaction, legal or not. While crypto "currencies"? I'd say: not so much.

This is a short term advantage that is quickly evaporating. There are crypto credit cards now that allow you to achieve the same effect. Assuming this advantage disappears, are there any other bull cases for $USD?

I, and everyone else, has to pay taxes in USD. That will never replaced.
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