An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation • Hacker News Board

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#221

Post by largbae » Mon, Jan 17, 2022, 6:59 PM UTC

eric_cc wrote: post #192

alecst wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A counterpoint would be that what some call the intrinsic value is the expected future share price based on expected future revenues. There might or might not be future revenue for SNAP, but there is no revenue for a digital currency. But I do think digital currency has intrinsic value, in that for now, it affords you anonymity to commit crimes in a way that ordinary currency does not. I’m not happy about it, but thi…

> it affords you anonymity What? Bitcoin is radically transparent. The vast majority of crimes are committed with standard currencies like $USD. If 'crime' is the only value you see, you're extremely ignorant. What is the bull case for $USD? What properties does it have that make it superior to currencies like $BTC in your opinion?

One thing fiat currencies have that is underrated: a legal system to handle special cases. Recently, an apparently Bitcoin-rich man named Mircea Propescu died without sharing his private key(s). Now that fortune is gone with no recourse for next of kin. Maybe this is OK and everyone is happy to lose the safety net. But what about fraud? Do you want to have to take up arms to get your money back from someone who stole from you?

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#222

Post by DennisP » Mon, Jan 17, 2022, 6:59 PM UTC

gandalfian wrote: post #175

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can't buy and sell the same item to yourself at an auction multiple times You don't have to; you get someone else to buy it, hold onto it for a few years, then sell it again on a different auction. It doesn't have to be short-term. > Also, the value is in the art, not the receipt. I would argue the value is not in the art in real life either, that is, it's not the artwork itself, but the 'object', its history,…

Though whiskey doesn't age in the bottle making it a weird investment in itself. The ten year old bottle I bought twenty years ago now costs much more to buy it again, is rarer but the whiskey is not better, it forever stays at ten years old once out of the barrel.

It's not completely nonsensical. The new whisky even from the same distillery won't taste quite the same, due to variations in climate and so on. The old and increasingly rare one isn't trivially replaceable, so if has a reputation of being especially good it can gain value. Even more so when the original distillery isn't in business anymore.

On top of that, the popularity of good whisky has increased a lot over the past few decades, and the higher age statements haven't been able to keep up.

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#223

Post by dheera » Mon, Jan 17, 2022, 7:00 PM UTC

benreesman wrote: post #147

cillian64 wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think of it like this. If you suddenly owned 100% of Bitcoin, then you wouldn’t actually have anything valuable - nobody would buy it off you. If you suddenly owned 100% of Tesla then you’d be able to extract a lot of value.

I’ll start the bidding at 1 USD to own all BTC. Anyone want to go higher?

sure, 2 USD, bring it on

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#224

Post by Tenoke » Mon, Jan 17, 2022, 7:00 PM UTC

jcranmer wrote: post #214

Tenoke wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I suddenly own 100% of Tesla the stock would crash. I'll extract some value but it would be a pittance.

You seem to ignore the fact that you would then have access to 100% of the revenue that Tesla makes by selling cars and other things. (This in turn sort of guarantees a price floor for stocks in public companies: the price of a stock shouldn't really go below the net asset value of the company.)

I really doubt Tesla would survive very long in that state. Stock will crash, public opinion will sour, employees will quit etc. very quickly.

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#225

Post by shawabawa3 » Mon, Jan 17, 2022, 7:00 PM UTC

TrackerFF wrote: post #90

skilled wrote: post #31

Interesting tidbit: "An aside on NFTs Because they’re “unique” objects, NFTs are a perfect vehicle for wash trading. You can easily ensure you only wash trade to yourself. The common scheme is to wash trade with yourself until some credible dunce buys the NFT from you at your manufactured “fair” value, leaving you to walk away with real money." It's such a stupidly simple idea it's actually brilliant.

Yes, it's been painfully obvious from the start. It was the first thing I noticed, once looking into NFTs. I'd be surprised, AMAZED actually, if some of the big NFT collections aren't entrenched in wash trading, to pump up trade volume and price. In fact, I think that in order to successfully launch a NFT collection today, you need to have either: A) Substantial social capital. B) Capital to do the wash trading, or i…

I personally don't value nfts highly but I'm in a circle with lots of rich crypto early adopters - they absolutely would pay $100k for a bored ape and would consider it a bargain. It's a real status symbol, just in a niche you don't understand.

I feel the same way about $100k Patel Phillipe watches but I don't hear everyone talking about how those are only wash trades

The platforms where these nfts are sold usually charge 1-2% commission which is expensive for a wash trade

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#226

Post by CaptainZapp » Mon, Jan 17, 2022, 7:01 PM UTC

eric_cc wrote: post #192

alecst wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A counterpoint would be that what some call the intrinsic value is the expected future share price based on expected future revenues. There might or might not be future revenue for SNAP, but there is no revenue for a digital currency. But I do think digital currency has intrinsic value, in that for now, it affords you anonymity to commit crimes in a way that ordinary currency does not. I’m not happy about it, but thi…

> it affords you anonymity What? Bitcoin is radically transparent. The vast majority of crimes are committed with standard currencies like $USD. If 'crime' is the only value you see, you're extremely ignorant. What is the bull case for $USD? What properties does it have that make it superior to currencies like $BTC in your opinion?

> What is the bull case for $USD? What properties does it have that make it superior to currencies like $BTC in your opinion?

That I can spend USD in just about any shop or for any transaction, legal or not. While crypto "currencies"? I'd say: not so much.

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#227

Post by gjvc » Mon, Jan 17, 2022, 7:01 PM UTC

wonderwonder wrote: post #99

mwattsun wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He knows more than I do, is surrounded by people smarter than I am and has a track record of success and overcoming failures. If I thought I shouldn't listen to Elon Musk because I thought I knew better, then I think my chances of understanding anything about this would be greatly diminished.

This is a terrible way to go through life. Just because someone is successful at X does not mean they are in any way knowledgeable in Y. Want to know about something, just read about it yourself or seek the opinion of someone that actually works in the field, don't blindly take the word of someone that is not even from the field in question. Doge is a joke crypto currency, and I don't mean that as an insult I mean it…

Someone that understands crypto second to none but acts like he does not while delivering incredible content: https://twitter.com/cobie

This guy is a bull market genius who is also a master shitposter. Much, if not all of his content is moronic, but this sort of content is posted ironically but then becomes part of the in-jokes people mistake for talent. Toxic.

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#228

Post by jayd16 » Mon, Jan 17, 2022, 7:02 PM UTC

sjtindell wrote: post #181

kaashif wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Well unless they pay no dividend, have dual-class share structure, and IPO without a profitable quarter. What’s a share of SNAP entitle you to exactly? Ah right, you think someone will buy it for more. I think the idea would be like what happened to Apple: they eventually grew so much, became so successful, accumulated huge piles of cash bigger than they could possibly spend, that they had to start paying a dividen…

Do you consider running a poker table a “real business”? Assuming there were no addicts present, what about a casino? Is that “real”?

Isn't a casino with no addicts just an arcade? I'm not sure what your point is, though. The addicts are pretty inextricable.

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#229

Post by dheera » Mon, Jan 17, 2022, 7:02 PM UTC

fullshark wrote: post #165

dheera wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> US equities have intrinsic value Really? My impression is that many US equities in 2022 are more like Reddit up/downvote scores than a reflection of intrinsic value. Which isn't a bad thing in my opinion, by the way.

Firms used to give out dividends, that would make it easier to claim it had intrinsic value (future cash flows discounted). Now it appears the only intrinsic value is how much another firm would pay to acquire the company and do X with it.

Dividends are worthless.

Stocks go down every time they give out dividends so you never really make anything. And you will never beat inflation with dividends.

Dividend investing is stuff of 1980's folklore. These days it's all about modelling and executing on hype. We're entering an era where hype is intrinsic value. I'm not advocating for a world like that, but it's the world we live in now whether we like it or not.

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#230

Post by 01acheru » Mon, Jan 17, 2022, 7:03 PM UTC

eric_cc wrote: post #192

alecst wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A counterpoint would be that what some call the intrinsic value is the expected future share price based on expected future revenues. There might or might not be future revenue for SNAP, but there is no revenue for a digital currency. But I do think digital currency has intrinsic value, in that for now, it affords you anonymity to commit crimes in a way that ordinary currency does not. I’m not happy about it, but thi…

> it affords you anonymity What? Bitcoin is radically transparent. The vast majority of crimes are committed with standard currencies like $USD. If 'crime' is the only value you see, you're extremely ignorant. What is the bull case for $USD? What properties does it have that make it superior to currencies like $BTC in your opinion?

Maybe that you can buy bread with USD, or a house, or a car, or pay rent, or insurance, or gas, a coke on a vending machine, or stocks, or... well there are a lot of things you can do with USD that you cannot do with BTC right now.