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An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

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Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#171

Post by mwattsun »

keymone wrote: post #103
mwattsun wrote: post #5

I'm suspicious of Bitcoin as a store of value. Some seem to think that because there is a fixed amount of Bitcoin it will automatically rise in price as demand confronts scarcity, but that assumes there will continued demand. Elon Musk says Dogecoin is better because it has some inflation built in, encouraging people to spend instead of hoard, but adds "I'm not saying that it's the ideal system for a currency" "Elon…

> So like having a small block size or whatever it is, and a long synchronization time made sense in 2008, but, 2021, or fast forward 10 years, it's like, comically low. just shows how hopelessly moronic he is on this issue and how surface-level his understanding of what is valuable about bitcoin is.

In shudder to think of the stupid things I thought in 2008

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#172

Post by DennisP »

spoiler wrote: post #84
masona wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fine art market has been doing this for decades by using auction records to set prices.

You can't buy and sell the same item to yourself at an auction multiple times... Or am I missing the point you're trying to make? Also, the value is in the art, not the receipt. With NFT, that's not the case... Unless it's an exchangeable NFT, like one you can exchange for a service (e.g. as a tick) or some goods, but that's not really how NFTs are being used.

Plenty of high-end art investors never move the art from the specialized vault where it was already stored. The only change is a new entry in the public art registry. Seems like the receipt is carrying a lot of the value in that case.

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#173

Post by spoiler »

fleddr wrote: post #106
spoiler wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Because it would pop out of nowhere and nobody has ever heard of you. Isn't that everything in the crypto space right now? > So just like in the traditional art world, you need to be visible and networked. People who spend hundreds, if not thousands, on procgen chimpanzee/monkey avatar NFTs would beg to differ.

I mean known in the crypto community. Surely a random person in the street has never heard of most crypto celebrities, but that wasn't my point. The monkey NFTs that you mention are a perfect example, because they are the best known project after cryptopunks. Massive media reach, real world celebrities and almost all crypto influencers are in. That's what I mean when I say they didn't come out of nowhere. These high…

> I mean known in the crypto community. Surely a random person in the street has never heard of most crypto celebrities, but that wasn't my point.

It might be due to my misconceptions about the crypto space then, but I always assumed people just kinda "pop up" relatively often (even if we just constrain this to within the crypto community). The whole crypto space seems to be very very "fast moving" to me, if that makes sense?

Back to the monkey avatar NFTs: I was under the impression those also just popped up. There's obviously a "ramp" towards reaching popularity in any community, but that ramp seems to be short (within the crypto community). Also, people will invest in any crypto-game/nft for promise of future profits, regardless whether they believe in the product/nft; they're going for coverage. This is fine for people with cash to burn, but there's more victims than heroes in the get-rich-fast crypto rush. Or is this perception wrong (it might very well be)?

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#174

Post by c7DJTLrn »

gfd wrote: post #149

Dumb question, but is price manipulation wrong when it's for something that doesn't have a "true" price? Like I get why it should be illegal for stocks. If you pump it and the price reverts back to some true price (calculated from expected future earnings or whatever), then people who bought it expecting it to be at an efficient price will lose money. In the case of crypto where everything is driven by supply and dem…

I'd argue there's no right or wrong at all when it comes to this. There's only bigger and smaller, stronger and weaker, early and late. We draw an arbitrary line somewhere and say that people on one side cannot trade on information they have and the people on the other side can. And we trust that the people on the former side will never try to find a cheat or workaround.

The market is completely made up. It's driven by inequality in access to information. You're only going to make money if you're:

A. Lucky

B. Ahead of the game in some shape or form

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#175

Post by gandalfian »

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #93
spoiler wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't buy and sell the same item to yourself at an auction multiple times... Or am I missing the point you're trying to make? Also, the value is in the art, not the receipt. With NFT, that's not the case... Unless it's an exchangeable NFT, like one you can exchange for a service (e.g. as a tick) or some goods, but that's not really how NFTs are being used.

> You can't buy and sell the same item to yourself at an auction multiple times You don't have to; you get someone else to buy it, hold onto it for a few years, then sell it again on a different auction. It doesn't have to be short-term. > Also, the value is in the art, not the receipt. I would argue the value is not in the art in real life either, that is, it's not the artwork itself, but the 'object', its history,…

Though whiskey doesn't age in the bottle making it a weird investment in itself. The ten year old bottle I bought twenty years ago now costs much more to buy it again, is rarer but the whiskey is not better, it forever stays at ten years old once out of the barrel.

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#176

Post by mbesto »

notch656a wrote: post #145
mbesto wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, I'm not claiming anything about a currency being manipulated. I'm saying the idea that a currency in and of itself is being manipulated is completely irrelevant to this discussion. Currency manipulation, in the context of the OP's discussion, implies one currencies relation to another one, in this case USD and BTC. Federal interest rates affecting the value of your dollar making purchases for goods and services i…

I knew when I bought crypto it was being manipulated. I don't give a fuck, I use it as a medium of exchange usually dumping it within a few minutes of buying it in order to buy some goods online to avoid credit card fees (precious metals). It's true dollar is manipulated. It is true crypto is manipulated. It is true many people such as myself purely is it as a medium of exchange. Just like with dollars, I dump it as…

> In short, currencies are usually bad choice for store of value.

> Also I recommend people not use crypto as investment, that is probably not smart idea to consider long chain of cryptographic signatures and hashes as a large portion of investment on your future.

Re-read what you wrote there again for me. How do you pay for any goods or services if you:

> dump it as quickly as possible to buy physical assets

So, like cars that depreciate in value the second you buy them? (note - I recognize the last 2 years this has not been the case...but thats a historic anomaly) What other physical assets are you aware of that consistently outpace inflation? Housing? What else?

> or other investments

Like ones denominated in....US currency?

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#177

Post by mbesto »

ptero wrote: post #153
mbesto wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Depends on what you mean by the manipulation. Fair point. I'll use the SEC's definition: "transactions which create an artificial price or maintain an artificial price for a tradable security". What the author described is exactly this. > Some are illegal, some perfectly legal. Agree. My point is probably more about the ease of manipulation when you have a completely deregulated environment.

With this definition my guess is there is likely to be some manipulation. But as BTC is not regulated by the SEC I personally do not see a major problem with it, either. My guess is that most people that I know that buy BTC, either directly or via some holding schema, do it for the speculation and in this environment they should expect other players to use any method available to them which is not explicitly prohibit…

> My guess is that most people that I know that buy BTC, either directly or via some holding schema, do it for the speculation

I think you're right. But then isn't it essentially just a digital form a gold bar with less utility?

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#178

Post by spoiler »

DennisP wrote: post #172
spoiler wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't buy and sell the same item to yourself at an auction multiple times... Or am I missing the point you're trying to make? Also, the value is in the art, not the receipt. With NFT, that's not the case... Unless it's an exchangeable NFT, like one you can exchange for a service (e.g. as a tick) or some goods, but that's not really how NFTs are being used.

Plenty of high-end art investors never move the art from the specialized vault where it was already stored. The only change is a new entry in the public art registry. Seems like the receipt is carrying a lot of the value in that case.

I wasn't aware of this. I guess that's a special way way of appreciating art (assuming the art isn't somehow volatile in "normal" conditions), if it's done out of legitimate interests (i.e. not money laundering)

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#179

Post by arberx »

benreesman wrote: post #94

Eh 20-ish years ago the shit happening on Island and Archipelago would blow most people’s minds. Undocumented, conditional, non-displayed order types. Routine wash trading. Shear-but-don’t skin multi-venue arbitrage. The ECNs were the Wild West. Smoke-filled dark pools. Island and Arca are NASDAQ and NYSE now. But Ben, US equities have intrinsic value unlike this BTC garbage! Well unless they pay no dividend, have du…

This comment is gold

Re: An anatomy of Bitcoin price manipulation

#180

Post by ravar »

ckastner wrote: post #155
benreesman wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have a lot more faith in the IPO underwriting process than I do. They don’t call it a “pop” for nothing.

Not at all. I'm just saying that the other process is much, much worse than that.

thats like, your opinion bro. In all seriousness I am ok with crypto punishing gamblers, eventually people will learn to stay away from it, or be forced to stay away from it because they have nothing left to gamble. I don't see how this is more morally repugnant than casinos which are legally accessible in most of the US.
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