Covid-19 breakthrough data • Hacker News Board

Re: Covid-19 breakthrough data

#91

Post by pstoll » Sun, Jan 16, 2022, 5:11 PM UTC

twofornone wrote: post #74

pstoll wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The “only 1% will die” argument, sure I remember that one from early days. But hospitals are currently overwhelmed with mostly voluntarily unvaccinated people. My advice is don’t break your arm or get in a car accident or have a heart attack right now - it could be lethal because health care resources are at a breaking point (in the US).

I don't think this is as widespread as people believe. Certain locales tend to be overwhelmed at any given time, but I don't think that's the case for the majority of hospitals in the country. Unfortunately I don't have any statistics. >But hospitals are currently overwhelmed with mostly voluntarily unvaccinated people This has been the narrative for a while now, but as vaccination rates increase the ratio of vaccina…

> as vaccination rates increase the ratio of vaccinated:unvaccinated hospitalized patients is approaching and surpassing parity.

Parity as in 1:1? Because I’m pretty sure raw counts and case rates are still nowhere near parity. You mentioned data by age ranges as well.

This commentary on a new study is pretty good: https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1482501951065661440?s=21

Pointing to this recent study: https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm...

Re: Covid-19 breakthrough data

#92

Post by argvargc » Sun, Jan 16, 2022, 5:12 PM UTC

responsivity wrote: post #89

argvargc wrote: post #67

To enjoy an interesting and arguably also somewhat more accurate experience reading articles such as these, try mentally replacing the term "vaccine breakthrough" with "vaccine failure". Going to hospital is not protection.

How have you found the article to be more interesting when doing this substitution? Did you find it more accurate as well, and if so how?

It creates a more neutral impression of the vaccines efficacy. The use of the term "breakthrough case" seems entirely geared toward downplaying ineffectiveness. Why not simply call it failure when the vaccine fails?

Re: Covid-19 breakthrough data

#93

Post by asimpletune » Sun, Jan 16, 2022, 5:13 PM UTC

b112 wrote: post #79

pstoll wrote: post #48

Figure it’s relevant to this thread - Eric Topol (very credentialed medical researcher) does a pretty good overview & summary on how the vaccines are doing. https://erictopol.substack.com/p/were-very-lucky

If there were enough vaccines for everyone around the world to get the protection equivalent of 3-shots, and people took them, the pandemic would be over now This is a very bizarre assertion. Given that, the vaccinated spread covid, even with no symptoms, vaccination status does not limit spread. No amount of vaccinated people, will end the pandemic. Note that, to spread covid, it must be replicating in the body. The…

I mean, I think it really all comes down to numbers, and also agreeing on reasonable definitions of what words like "over now" mean.

That being said, vaccines have stopped effectively ended viruses before, e.g. polio (again, for counter examples please refer to my comment about reasonable definitions). Therefore it's clear that vaccines can achieve this effect, and really what lies in question is how hard is it?

So, I think there are people who study this stuff, and I think it's also probably pretty complicated because there are a lot of variables as well as unknowns. E.g. how effective is the vaccine, how contagious is the virus, how does it spread, the incubation period, for how long is it contagious, etc..

Ok, bearing all that in mind saying

> No amount of vaccinated people, will end the pandemic.

Is itself a bizarre assertion. Maybe in your gut it seems that way, but that's not really how we know stuff in real life. The author even said

1.) if there were enough vaccines for everyone for

2.) 3-shots of protection and

3.) if people took them

Then the pandemic would be over... I think that more or less makes sense. I'm not saying it's realistic, because #3 seems to be the problem in countries that have enough vaccines for everyone (like the USA).

In any case, he's a doctor, I think he knows more than you do, I trust his reasoning is based off well-informed assumptions, and you're just convinced that it could never happen.

So do you care to elaborate how "No amount of vaccinated people, will end the pandemic."? If 100% of people were vaccinated, would that not end the pandemic? I think it comes down to the numbers, so how do the numbers support your argument?

Re: Covid-19 breakthrough data

#94

Post by pstoll » Sun, Jan 16, 2022, 5:14 PM UTC

b112 wrote: post #79

pstoll wrote: post #48

Figure it’s relevant to this thread - Eric Topol (very credentialed medical researcher) does a pretty good overview & summary on how the vaccines are doing. https://erictopol.substack.com/p/were-very-lucky

If there were enough vaccines for everyone around the world to get the protection equivalent of 3-shots, and people took them, the pandemic would be over now This is a very bizarre assertion. Given that, the vaccinated spread covid, even with no symptoms, vaccination status does not limit spread. No amount of vaccinated people, will end the pandemic. Note that, to spread covid, it must be replicating in the body. The…

No one gets a free pass, for sure, but he’s a pretty qualified thinker of things medical and health. So coming here and calling him out on it should probably warrant a bit more than a “uhn uhn”.

(Edited - asimpletune above said it more eloquently than I did!)

Re: Covid-19 breakthrough data

#95

Post by pstoll » Sun, Jan 16, 2022, 5:23 PM UTC

peteradio wrote: post #63

Mystlix wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you are protected from infection only if you have a huge number of antibodies since they can immediately overpower the virus when it gets in. when the antibodies are few and the virus comes in you have to wait for the trained t-cells to produce enough of them to again overpower the virus, so you get sick for a short time and then get better. of course the quality of a vaccine determines how quickly and effectively th…

I wouldn't even call it "very very very good vaccine". It's just a different problem each vaccine has to solve. Some problems are inherently harder: flu, coronavirus, hiv

Interesting point I heard about why we don’t (yet) have a vaccine for HIV where we do for COVID - the human body can fight COVID. Ie we mount an immune response and some people survive and recover on their own. This is largely not true with HIV - the human body hasalmost no ability to mount its own response.

Making a vaccine is more straightforward (ie we expect to be able to) when we know there is a response by our own immune systems - hence we expected to be able to make a COVID vaccine (although the time scale is still an amazing accomplishment - thanks 20+ years of mRNA research!). And we are still working on a vaccine for HIV.

Re: Covid-19 breakthrough data

#96

Post by b112 » Sun, Jan 16, 2022, 5:24 PM UTC

asimpletune wrote: post #93

b112 wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If there were enough vaccines for everyone around the world to get the protection equivalent of 3-shots, and people took them, the pandemic would be over now This is a very bizarre assertion. Given that, the vaccinated spread covid, even with no symptoms, vaccination status does not limit spread. No amount of vaccinated people, will end the pandemic. Note that, to spread covid, it must be replicating in the body. The…

I mean, I think it really all comes down to numbers, and also agreeing on reasonable definitions of what words like "over now" mean. That being said, vaccines have stopped effectively ended viruses before, e.g. polio (again, for counter examples please refer to my comment about reasonable definitions). Therefore it's clear that vaccines can achieve this effect, and really what lies in question is how hard is it? So,…

Appealing to authority, is a logical fallacy. He's not right due to credentials.

You've glossed over very important parts of my post. I did edit it within 3 minutes of posting, so you may be responding to an alternate.

My point is:

- the current vaccines do not stop spread due to, and in the vaccinated

Everyone agrees on this.

- for spread to occur, the virus must replicate, therefore it can mutate even in the vaccinated

This is just viral 101.

- therefore, current vaccines cannot stop spread and mutation, therefore they cannot stop the pandemic

Re: Covid-19 breakthrough data

#97

Post by xeromal » Sun, Jan 16, 2022, 5:24 PM UTC

sschueller wrote: post #19

tylersmith wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here in the US there is no upside to having proof of infection. It doesn't relieve you of needing vaccination or false tests in any situation. Edit: not false tests; true negative tests.

That doesn't make much sense when looking at hospital data. The previously infected have the lowest hospital administrations vs even the vaccinated. If you are double vaxed and get infected it make zero sense to also get a booster unless you have an immune system issue.

Any chance you remember where you read the reinfection data?

Re: Covid-19 breakthrough data

#98

Post by b112 » Sun, Jan 16, 2022, 5:25 PM UTC

pstoll wrote: post #94

b112 wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If there were enough vaccines for everyone around the world to get the protection equivalent of 3-shots, and people took them, the pandemic would be over now This is a very bizarre assertion. Given that, the vaccinated spread covid, even with no symptoms, vaccination status does not limit spread. No amount of vaccinated people, will end the pandemic. Note that, to spread covid, it must be replicating in the body. The…

No one gets a free pass, for sure, but he’s a pretty qualified thinker of things medical and health. So coming here and calling him out on it should probably warrant a bit more than a “uhn uhn”. (Edited - asimpletune above said it more eloquently than I did!)

My comment, agree or not, stated precisely why his logic was flawed.

Further, appealing to authority is a logical fallacy. The facts count.

Re: Covid-19 breakthrough data

#99

Post by peteradio » Sun, Jan 16, 2022, 5:29 PM UTC

asimpletune wrote: post #93

b112 wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If there were enough vaccines for everyone around the world to get the protection equivalent of 3-shots, and people took them, the pandemic would be over now This is a very bizarre assertion. Given that, the vaccinated spread covid, even with no symptoms, vaccination status does not limit spread. No amount of vaccinated people, will end the pandemic. Note that, to spread covid, it must be replicating in the body. The…

I mean, I think it really all comes down to numbers, and also agreeing on reasonable definitions of what words like "over now" mean. That being said, vaccines have stopped effectively ended viruses before, e.g. polio (again, for counter examples please refer to my comment about reasonable definitions). Therefore it's clear that vaccines can achieve this effect, and really what lies in question is how hard is it? So,…

What exactly is the point of an unattainable hypothetical like that? Its not falsifiable and therefore totally unscientific.

Re: Covid-19 breakthrough data

#100

Post by peteradio » Sun, Jan 16, 2022, 5:32 PM UTC

pstoll wrote: post #94

b112 wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If there were enough vaccines for everyone around the world to get the protection equivalent of 3-shots, and people took them, the pandemic would be over now This is a very bizarre assertion. Given that, the vaccinated spread covid, even with no symptoms, vaccination status does not limit spread. No amount of vaccinated people, will end the pandemic. Note that, to spread covid, it must be replicating in the body. The…

No one gets a free pass, for sure, but he’s a pretty qualified thinker of things medical and health. So coming here and calling him out on it should probably warrant a bit more than a “uhn uhn”. (Edited - asimpletune above said it more eloquently than I did!)

"pretty qualified thinkers" are putting out all sorts of thought provoking ideas with no intention of being right all the time.