171–180 of 265 posts
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A lot of our biggest and most transformative "successes" have come at a price, and so do some of the biggest failure. I think the jury is out on net gain.
What about clean water? and vaccinations? and no more famine?
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Ehh, I'd rather society focus on stable foundations that allow for thinking, tinkering and inventions, rather than moonshot attempts at getting rich that destroy you if they fail.
This doesn't work if progress requires something like making a big jump from one cliff to another. Saying "let's move safely 1cm at a time" gets you to the edge of the cliff, and then you stop and you get nowhere.
Much also comes out of publicly funded research, and spinning those findings out into net gains for society instead of maximized profit would be good.
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Even the simple act of trying will improve your odds of success. Some basic strategies: 1. stay in school 2. don't do drugs 3. don't do crimes If you want to be a pro basketball player, your odds will improve if you practice playing basketball. Want to be a guitar god? Get a guitar and start practicing. Every guitar god I've heard of have one thing in common - they played a lot , for many many years, before breaking…
You sound like a American entitled boomer. Just work hard and it will be fine. Which if you look was never true. > Get a guitar and start practicing. Every guitar god I've heard of have one thing in common - they played a lot, for many many years, before breaking through. Sure but they also got talent and were the exception and your view is biased. The ods of becoming a guitar god are very low and of course they are…
The degree of success is often largely beyond your control. Maybe it'll be weekly shows at the local Holiday Inn. Maybe it'll be the cover of Rolling Stone. That part of it doesn't correlate to the amount of effort all that much.
But having any success vs having no success is very largely correlated to the amount of work you put in.
But this is tiring. For a different reason.
So what happen is media will now try this narrative. See if it works. And if it did, it will enter a positive feedback loop ( in terms of clicks ) and the whole PR industry reinforces itself. Mass public will now start hating on these success stories. The pendulum will swing from one end to another.
Success Stories Cause False Beliefs About Success wasn't "false" 10 years ago. It is only false now because the narrative no longer works for masses.
Everything depends on context. But no one want the context, they only want the answer.
Survivor bias is a thing. It reminds me of all the stories of the young college drop out with the successful company… that’s been funded by their rich parents.
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It's everywhere:
One kid becomes autistic after the DPT vaccine, and everyone hears about it.
Someone sees you jogging on three separate days, and assumes you must do it every day.
Several people I know or know of are killed in private plane crashes, so I won't go up in a private plane anymore. (Just to show I'm not immune either.)
People are helpless at estimating likelihood.
Absolutely, I've had friends with limited business or tech background pump hard-earned savings into crazy tech startup ideas, precisely because they've read too many of these success stories. I've been guilty of not trying to talk sense to some of them, so much so that there's one particular marriage break-up related to a stupid tech start up blowing a couples life savings that still haunts me. And for the record, he…
I don't see why Salmon is a crazy idea - they should be selling other seafood as well - it seems like a quite normal business.
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If you look at who is getting all the funding, you will see that they have rich and/or politically connected family members in 99.9% of cases.
There is a "winner takes all" market effect on success stories in general. They almost become their own trope and honestly exhausting to hear the same ones referenced in every piece of literature and copy/pasted on social media.
The reality is that if you do the things the 1% do, your odds are higher at becoming part of the 1%. The challenge though is that if everybody tells you that you need to do the things the 1% do, you're really doing what the 99% are doing.
Your success is subject to your own story. Imitate, iterate, and make it your own.
I always liked the quote "Most advice is people giving you their winning lottery ticket numbers". There is always something to learn from others but you can’t just take their exact circumstance and map it onto yours.
I like this one: I have seen something else under the sun: The race is not to the swift nor the battle to the strong, nor does food come to the wise or wealth to the brilliant or favor to the learned; but time and chance happen to them all.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that is the way to bet.