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Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

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Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#51

Post by jonplackett »

I had a dumb idea about this a while ago - to do a massive completion for coin flipping.

Get thousands of entries. Each ‘match’ just involves the two people flipping coins to decide the winner.

You make a documentary about it where you ask everyone about their tactics and strategy. Someone has to win all their matches. They will have developed some ‘tactics’ that they probably strongly believe in. Of course we know it’s just completely random.

It’s basically an exposé of survivorship bias.

Probably no one would watch it though…

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#52

Post by Simon_O_Rourke »

risyachka wrote: post #23
Simon_O_Rourke wrote: post #3

Absolutely, I've had friends with limited business or tech background pump hard-earned savings into crazy tech startup ideas, precisely because they've read too many of these success stories. I've been guilty of not trying to talk sense to some of them, so much so that there's one particular marriage break-up related to a stupid tech start up blowing a couples life savings that still haunts me. And for the record, he…

Those crazy ideas are crazy only when they fail. And with great execution even the most crazy idea can become a success - there are tons of examples. Ideas have nothing to do with failures, marriage breakups etc. That's bad planning, no backup plan, etc.

Nonsense, a bad foundational idea sets a start-up back so much that it makes a failure so much more likely. Most don't have the runway to pivot away to something that works.

And if you think that businesses failing are some abstract concept completely removed from any personal impact then it shows why these success stories are a problem.

It's less prevalent and more unwelcome to hear about the marriages breaking up, the homes having to be sold, and the mental issues brought about through the businesses failing. It happens though. And the survivor bias that's reinforced through success stories is a contributing factor.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#53

Post by kkjjkgjjgg »

throw8932894 wrote: post #37
cracrecry wrote: post #30

First thing you need to do is define the term: Success Living in the US of America is already a success compared with most other places in the world. Success for most people is not making a billion dollar company. Success for them is being able to raise a family, work on their own, pursue their interests and be free. In the US you can do that way easier than in the rest of the world. Billionaires are not happier than…

> Living in the US of America is already a success compared with most other places in the world. > Success for most people is not making a billion dollar company. Success for them is being able to raise a family, work on their own, pursue their interests and be free. In the US you can do that way easier than in the rest of the world. This is such self absorbed and delusional opinion! Your point proves point of the ar…

Most places and populations where people have many children are poorer than the US. Families are expensive because you have such expectations of high standards. I see it in my country. If you want an extra bedroom for every kid and a car that fits all family members, it is expensive. Meanwhile other people are raising 4 kids in a single room.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#55

Post by _qua »

jonplackett wrote: post #51

I had a dumb idea about this a while ago - to do a massive completion for coin flipping. Get thousands of entries. Each ‘match’ just involves the two people flipping coins to decide the winner. You make a documentary about it where you ask everyone about their tactics and strategy. Someone has to win all their matches. They will have developed some ‘tactics’ that they probably strongly believe in. Of course we know i…

I think Warren Buffett used this example in one of his investor letters.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#56

Post by kkjjkgjjgg »

I don't think the article proves that all advice for becoming successful is bunk, just that it is difficult to evaluate.

Surely "from nothing comes nothing" is still mostly true. Of course a lot of people these days believe that the only way to become rich is to inherit. Which ironically could also be a false belief about success, as per the article.

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#57

Post by gscott »

risyachka wrote: post #23
Simon_O_Rourke wrote: post #3

Absolutely, I've had friends with limited business or tech background pump hard-earned savings into crazy tech startup ideas, precisely because they've read too many of these success stories. I've been guilty of not trying to talk sense to some of them, so much so that there's one particular marriage break-up related to a stupid tech start up blowing a couples life savings that still haunts me. And for the record, he…

Those crazy ideas are crazy only when they fail. And with great execution even the most crazy idea can become a success - there are tons of examples. Ideas have nothing to do with failures, marriage breakups etc. That's bad planning, no backup plan, etc.

Maybe part of the difference is not pivoting...

Re: Do success stories cause false beliefs about success?

#58

Post by brabel »

polote wrote: post #29

1. If we knew the factors to make successful companies vc would not fund 90% of companies that fails 2. We don't know what has made a company succeed, so success stories only show cherry picked reasons of the overall 3. Success stories are biased towards making people look good and less socially acceptable things (like, the founder lied to the customers) are hidden

> vc would not fund 90% of companies that fails

Imagine if VCs were so good at spotting success that 90% of companies they funded were successful.

They would then be able to fund a LOT of companies... but is there even a chance that there's actually room for so many new companies? Eventually, the rate of success would need to drop drastically, you can't just inject thousands of new companies into the world and expect them all to succeed.

I always think about it like this: how many new services have I or my company actually purchased during a year, or even might want to purchase if we just had perfect knowledge about all these new companies coming up and had actual need for many of those?

I can't think of it being more than one or two at most. Now, spread that over the whole population and you'll probably find that on average, only one or two companies could possibly enter any field successfully on any given year. And guess what: that's pretty much what we see in the real world.

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