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It’s not still the early days of blockchain

blog.mollywhite.net

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Re: It’s not still the early days of blockchain

#881
post #724

My purely anecdotal experience so far has been that crypto bulls have tended to be more business-y/finance type people and, even among technical people, the technical people who don’t actually know how a blockchain works. Not a good sign for the technology and its applications but I don’t think all crypto is useless… but a lot of the hype is definitely by people trying to get rich quick with a hand-wavy understanding…

Exposure bias. Who are you going to see more? The thoughtful coder and innovator who spends their time working on problems, or the excited businessman telling everyone about that work? Even the more outgoing founders are overshadowed by influencer types, and that’s not surprising at all. One dichotomy I have noticed in crypto is that non-involved “tech” people seem to understand crypto and the big picture much more s…

Well the excited businessman telling everyone about the work is the one hyping it to everyone. My point exactly is if it was just the hard working coder in a dark room everybody and their grandma wouldn't be buying into crypto right now. I'm also bullish on the utility of Bitcoin, as it allows for an almost cash-equivalent that's digital. Silk road took it as currency, and cybercriminals. These may be illegitimate businesses but they are businesses nonetheless.

Re: It’s not still the early days of blockchain

#882

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do we have proof of stake or do we have a lot of bitcoin folks avoiding criticism about the wasteful nature of most chains by claiming that proof of stake will fix all this. How many coins are actually using proof of stake? Why haven't the biggest including Ethereum done so?

The same reason Bitcoin doesn't implement every tom dick and Harry's supposed solution to every technical problem. The big boys have to get it right the first time. Again, inertia. Ethereum does have proof of stake, a protocol called Casper FFG. It is currently live on the Ethereum beacon chain, waiting for consensus to move the entire network to it. There are lots of smaller projects trying different protocols they…

> waiting for consensus to move the entire network to it.

May I clarify what that means? Does that mean a vote of the existing participants?

If so, might it never happen?

Re: It’s not still the early days of blockchain

#883
post #851

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not really a trap -- it's more a rhetorical tactic. The trick is that when you say "I used to believe X, but now I've realized I was wrong and believe Y", you can get away without giving evidence for why X was wrong and Y is right . You appeal to a commonality between you and your audience (your audience believes X, you used to believe X) and by presenting your change you imply that they are being left behind, t…

Thank you for writing this: it crystallises something that’s always annoyed me about the trope-ridden evangelist shtick. You’re absolutely right.

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Re: It’s not still the early days of blockchain

#884

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For me, a US notary signature currently involved a 2 month wait time at the US embassy. At the notary I used back in San Francisco, it cost $30, not including the cost of going there.

You can go into any bank and get a document notarized for free or a few dollars.

Thank! You seem really knowledgeable about the services provided by Japanese banks.

Re: It’s not still the early days of blockchain

#885
post #464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By pouring money into universities who do math.

...Just be aware that when you're investing in math, it's not an "investment" that pays out for you personally. It's an investment in all of humanity.

That's the point.

Re: It’s not still the early days of blockchain

#886
post #716

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still probably is!

People this uninformed are somehow the vocal majority of blockchain talk on HackerNews. What a seriously embarrassing misconception which demonstrates ignorance on a fundamental level.

Wait, what misconception? That crypto is good for black market transactions? You assert that it isn't?

Re: It’s not still the early days of blockchain

#887

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here by "remove trust" I didn't mean "trust-less assurance that voting is correct", I meant "you have no reason to trust that the system recorded your vote correctly". A basic problem with electronic & cryptographic voting systems is that it is impossible for a non-expert to convince themselves that the system is working correctly. In-person paper voting has this property by virtue of the simplicity of the system and…

You write as if there is only one voting scheme for in-person paper voting, and as if laypersons by and large trust the results of paper voting elections. Neither of these claims is true. First of all, there is more than one in-person paper voting system, and some in-person paper voting systems involve cryptography. Secondly, layperson DO NOT by and large trust the results of paper voting elections. You don't need to…

> Secondly, layperson DO NOT by and large trust the results of paper voting elections.

That is false. Though there is some distrust in many parts of the world, the overall consensus is that the result of the vote was at least close to the real vote. Even in the USA after the recent election, many focused on accusations of fraud about voting machines (the infamous comments about "Hugo Chavez's machines").

I do agree that it's not a 100%/0% thing in practice - some people will always choose to trust or mistrust the government regardless of other facts; and some people know or are convinced by facts that others don't believe or don't have access to to trust or mistrust.

However, I would say the right response to pure electronic voting would actually be 0%. It's actually out of gullibility and misunderstanding that people put any trust in pure electronic voting *, when in fact it can be attacked in ways that not even the best expert in the world would ever notice, and this can be done by sophisticated out of state attackers (such as the USA or Chinese spy agencies). In such a high-stakes environment, you can't trust the CPU, you can't trust the RAM, you can't trust the USB controller, you can't trust the cables - everything could have been rigged to perform different computations than what was apparently programmed, and this would be often be impossible to prove.

* with the possible exception of electronic voting systems that make everyone's vote public, with obvious downsides. Though even there, I have some reservations - if I claim I voted differently than what the public ledger shows, what happens next?

Re: It’s not still the early days of blockchain

#888
post #870

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They asked for a use-case, I presented one. And to be honest, I don't give a shit what the sceptics think about it. I just wanted to prove once more that even when you present a valid use-case, "the sceptics" twist and turn to still only see the negative side of it. Keep being blind, I have absolutely no problem with that. It's nice entertainment here on HN, with all those folks frustrated of missing out on the bigge…

This constantly-in-hysterics tone is why people find it tiresome to try to understand crypto advocates. Cool - you like your new technology. That’s great. I’ve been in the same boat with countless things and I know what it’s like. But if you respond to perfectly reasonable and polite questions about its use cases by screaming “you’re just asking these mean questions because you’re jealous!”, then it doesn’t exactly h…

Did you see that I presented a valid use case, and nobody responded to that part?

Everybody here only tries to pick apart the details. It's been like that always here on HN.

And again in your comment, no mention of the use-case, only that you don't like my tone.

Talk about tribalism.

Re: It’s not still the early days of blockchain

#889
post #866
post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Maybe you could refer to some history more specifically? Are you saying networking technology was developed in advance of a concept of what it's useful for? I'm saying that networking technologies original intended use (resilient nuclear launch capability) is a tiny irrelevant fraction of what it is used for today. I'd argue that most transformative technologies are in fact not relegated to their original intended…

Being resilient to unreliable connections in general is a feature that was important initially and has never stopped being relevant. The purpose of ARPANET was to implement applications like telnet, ftp, and email, so people could benefit from remote access to computers. The first network link went up in 1969 and the basic applications were implemented by 1973. It seems to me that people knew exactly what they wanted…

> Being resilient to unreliable connections in general is a feature that was important initially and has never stopped being relevant.

That is a very abstract way of referring to the feature. Suppose 100 years from now the entire world runs on decentralized blockchains. You could make the same exact abstract point: "Well, leaderless consensus was the original design goal, and it was achieved immediately, so, it was useful from the very beginning".

Of course the core innovation will always be integral to the relevance of that innovation. The point though is that the specific applications envisioned for the internet were very narrow and almost completely unrelated to what we use it for today, when it was invented.

> It seems to me that people knew exactly what they wanted to do from the get-go, it was useful almost immediately, and even though we have exponentially more people, computers, and applications today, the internet itself hasn't fundamentally changed.

Again, only if you conceptualize "knew what they wanted" in a very abstract way that makes the point tautological.

Cryptocurrency as it stands today is already useful. There is no real debate about that. I personally find it useful as an alternative value store. The use cases might be narrow, and not nearly as revolutionary as some of its proponents think (yet), but they do exist. If I am the only person in the world that derives utility from it, then its utility is still non-zero.

But abstracting from crypto specifically, the idea that technologies need to have specific applications in mind before they are pursued is just not how the history of technology has ever worked. Many of the best discoveries were made entirely by accident, in the pursuit of random, interesting things. We make progress by pulling at threads, and pushing boundaries down avenues that lead to highly general, abstract, and powerful primitives. I don't know about you, but I think Byzantine fault tolerant contract execution is a profoundly powerful, abstract, and general primitive, much like the internet itself. We do not know what its specific applications will be, just like we didn't know about Uber, Amazon, or Google in 1969.

Go take a look at the history of the early internet. As recently as the early 90s (more than 20 years after ARPANet came online!) people were saying commerce would never happen on the internet. Nobody would ever feel comfortable buying things that way, it was absurd. Here's Paul Krugman, in the NYT all the way in 1998 saying as much:

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/paul-krugman-internets-eff...

It's way too easy to see where we are now with the internet as inevitable. But it was extremely far from obvious 30 years ago. Most of the world thought it was a toy. Thought business and commerce and ordinary people would never take it seriously. This was not a fringe view, it was the mainstream consensus.

Now, I don't want to fall into the trap of arguing that because the internet's future was obscure, and crypto's future is obscure, therefore crypto will be as successful as the internet. That's stupid. What I do want to argue is that the premise that technologies need to have clear-cut and specific applications before being pursued is wildly out of sync with how some of the most important technologies in human history have come about.

Re: It’s not still the early days of blockchain

#890

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much taxpayers money goes into maintaining this database? Not sayin blockchain is a better solution but it can replace 99% of UK DVLA staff with an algorithm.

How exactly? Please explain. In particular how would using blockchain instead of a regular database replace 99% of the staff? What algorithm do you mean? What kind?

Last time I bought a car the process involved multiple people that was there only because of a centralized database. First of all I need a contract with a dealership, so there is a lawyer involved. Then I pay for a car (cashier) take my contract and go to a special road police department that exists only to register car ownership transfers. There I have one guy that takes my contract, another who will check it and fill-in data into the centralized database. So we are looking at least 3-4 people who are there only to review documents and authorize update to a centralized database.

Instead of this I could have pay to a smart contract and get my car ownership record in exchange. No clerks or lawyers involved. I cannot imagine how you implement this scenario as an API on top of a centralized database.

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