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Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

reuters.com

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Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#151

Post by tomjen3 »

scottLobster wrote: post #57
danjac wrote: post #10

The bigger question is "why now". Ukraine is not joining NATO or the EU any time soon. Russia has de facto annexed Crimea and its ongoing support for separatists in Donbas keeps the region unstable to its advantage. I suspect two reasons: Putin's flagging domestic support and Russia's (and to be honest, the world's) perception that America is currently so divided and weak it will be unable to offer much resistance th…

Difference, at least with regard to China/Taiwan, is timeline. Russia could likely steamroll much of Ukraine in a short period of time, and the US/NATO has few assets available for immediate response to hundreds of thousands of Russian troops. The conflict could potentially be over before any meaningful military response could be mounted outside of what Ukraine can muster (which compared to the Russians only goes so…

>Difference, at least with regard to China/Taiwan, is timeline. Russia could likely steamroll much of Ukraine in a short period of time, and the US/NATO has few assets available for immediate response to hundreds of thousands of Russian troops. The conflict could potentially be over before any meaningful military response could be mounted outside of what Ukraine can muster (which compared to the Russians only goes so far).

It takes, what, 12-20 hours to get a bunch of planes in the air - at that point the Russian soldiers will be smashed unless they can keep control of the air. You can't win a air power immediately, but if it comes to a NATO fight Poland is right next to Ukraine and has some pretty nice equipment and no love for Russia.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#152

Post by weare138 »

The_Colonel wrote: post #40
danjac wrote: post #10

The bigger question is "why now". Ukraine is not joining NATO or the EU any time soon. Russia has de facto annexed Crimea and its ongoing support for separatists in Donbas keeps the region unstable to its advantage. I suspect two reasons: Putin's flagging domestic support and Russia's (and to be honest, the world's) perception that America is currently so divided and weak it will be unable to offer much resistance th…

"Why now?" is also a question I was wondering about. But also, "What's the goal?". They obviously can't occupy the whole country (Ukraine is large and populous, that would be way too expensive). Do they want the eastern part (with a big Russian minority), land bridge to Crimea, or just extend Donbas/Luhansk or just reheat the conflict, destabilize the Ukraine? It has to be something worthy. Ukrainian army is in a muc…

I'm wondering if Putin is becoming paranoid of a possibly military coup and this is a way to keep the Russian military away from Moscow or some other related internal crisis. I'm honestly surprised that hasn't happened yet.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#153

Post by smcl »

tomjen3 wrote: post #146

Fuck it. Just announce that the rest of Ukraine is now under NATO protection and then let Russia choose the first move.

Sounds like a really good way to end up embroiled in another pointless war which ruins yet another country

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#154

Post by kingofpandora »

avmich wrote: post #98
elcritch wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair Crimea does have a majority ethnic Russian inhabitants. Wikipedia lists Crimea's demographics as 65% while others were lower at 58% or thereabout. Given many of those Russians were there from the Soviet era or direct descendants, it doesn't seem too crazy of a claim. The US and NATO countries have done worse for less. Now invading Ukraine? Thats another thing altogether.

> The US and NATO countries have done worse for less. Care to provide examples? Crimea annexation was almost bloodless, right, but annexation nevertheless - ?

The obvious answer is Kosovo.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#155

Post by estaseuropano »

ozheleztsov wrote: post #150
baal80spam wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's one of the oldest tricks in the book. Remember that Russia invaded and annexed Crimea "to save Russian citizens".

It is indeed an annexation. But it is also true that the majority of the inhabitants of Crimea are Russians and wanted to return to join Russia. But all the consequences, not the cause. The reason, in my opinion, is the global conflict between the West and Russia. And, obviously, the fall of Russia is just a matter of time. Despite the fact that they have weapons, in everyday life, all residents use technologies and…

I have not seen any data on the crimeans actually bring a majority ethnic Russians and eager to 'return' to Russia (which one? USSR ? Catherine's Russian empire? ...?). They just did a very questionable referendum once Crimea was occupied to annex the territory.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#156

Post by estaseuropano »

VictorPath wrote: post #149
pc86 wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They can move to Russia. They have as much right to move Crimea to Russia as citizens of Maine do to leave the US and join Canada - e.g. not much. This is all hypothetical though. What happened in reality is that Russia rolled tanks into a neighboring sovereign country, invading it, and stole a part of it. It's a blatant and egregious act of war.

Someone should tell that to the Kosovans who broke off from Serbia 14 years ago, to jubilation in the US and western Europe.

That was a different context though, with ongoing civil war and strife and no foreign takeover but rather a local independence movement. And there is no point debating this here but your summary is very one sided.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#157

Post by esarbe »

LBs7dPQbEw3tR42 wrote: post #103
esarbe wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess that's sarcasm? Because I honestly cannot tell. Yes, the U.S used its imperialist power to annex Hawai'i in 1897. That was before most of the modern foundations of international law - in particular article 2(4) of Chapter 1 of the United Nations Articles[0] - were put in place. No excuse, but still - different times. There are many aspects of U.S. foreign policy I positively abhor. But I'm not alone; the coup…

> Despite all that, the U.S. - at least since the end of WW2nd - hasn't seriously meddled in territorial growth or annexations. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_NATO

All of these are sovereign nations and joined NATO quite willingly. None of these nations were annexed.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#158

Post by esarbe »

nullifidian wrote: post #96
esarbe wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there any reliable (international) source for Russian internal affairs that is not tainted by state propaganda? Can you give a recommendation?

Understanding a country without knowing the language/culture is an endeavor fraught with failure in my opinion. The only way is to learn the language, learn the cultural differences(preferably at least partially from "field experience", not that it's advisable as of late), and read the same things a curious Russian would.

Thanks for your honest opinion.

I guess there's quite some truth to that, especially with regards to the cultural differences.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#159

Post by Drunk_Engineer »

mrguyorama wrote: post #132
Drunk_Engineer wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has always in been conflict with Western powers, and has been invaded on several occasions.

Can you name an example of one of these invasions?

Is that a serious question? World War 2 for starters...

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#160

Post by VictorPath »

mrguyorama wrote: post #132
Drunk_Engineer wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has always in been conflict with Western powers, and has been invaded on several occasions.

Can you name an example of one of these invasions?

The US invaded Russia in 1918, fighting the Russian army in Arkhangelsk and surrounding areas.
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