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Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

reuters.com

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Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#51

Post by esarbe »

7rm0LFlU6t8NnW1 wrote: post #12

USA annexes Hawaii, no one bats an eye. Russia annexes Crimea, everyone loses their minds.

I guess that's sarcasm? Because I honestly cannot tell.

Yes, the U.S used its imperialist power to annex Hawai'i in 1897. That was before most of the modern foundations of international law - in particular article 2(4) of Chapter 1 of the United Nations Articles[0] - were put in place. No excuse, but still - different times.

There are many aspects of U.S. foreign policy I positively abhor. But I'm not alone; the coups and the assassinations and the fiscal bullying and the straight out illegal wars waged against foreign nations have put quite a dent into the U.S.' lady-liberty image.

Despite all that, the U.S. - at least since the end of WW2nd - hasn't seriously meddled in territorial growth or annexations. That's Russia's game and - given the assurances given to Ukraine after the collapse of the SU - especially perfidious.

All in all, I'm quite happy not to live in the Russian sphere of influence.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_I_of_the_United_Nation...

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#52

Post by georgeecollins »

nickpp wrote: post #3

It's funny when the aggressor is "negotiating" to attack or not. The biggest bully in the region feeling "threatened" by its neighbours seeking any possible way to protect themselves from it. Like a government-level "Why are you hitting yourself?"

I agree that Russia is the bully in this case, but there is historical precedent for the bully to be the country that feels threatened. Before WW2 some Germans thought the that Germany would have to ally itself-- and become a client state-- to either the USSR or western powers in order to maintain its security. Going to war was insane, but the concern that Germany would become more of a client state than an independent power was not insane with historical hindsight.

A Russian strategist might feel threatened because down the line Russia may have depend on its security from either China or a European alliance. In either case it could have less independence and influence in the world.

It sounds insane to risk the disaster of war because your country may lose influence or small amounts of autonomy. But if you think about things like Brexit or some economically undermining policies of MAGA, it seems possible that people -- even in a democracy-- attach more psychic weight to the idea of their nation and its greatness than they do to changes in material prosperity. Also, the pain of bad economic choices (war being an extreme on that spectrum) may not be felt as much by top leaders as the pain of a loss of prestige, which could cost them their jobs or even lives.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#54

Post by vizzah »

elcritch wrote: post #34
baal80spam wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's one of the oldest tricks in the book. Remember that Russia invaded and annexed Crimea "to save Russian citizens".

To be fair Crimea does have a majority ethnic Russian inhabitants. Wikipedia lists Crimea's demographics as 65% while others were lower at 58% or thereabout. Given many of those Russians were there from the Soviet era or direct descendants, it doesn't seem too crazy of a claim. The US and NATO countries have done worse for less. Now invading Ukraine? Thats another thing altogether.

There was no imminent danger to those inhabitans when Russia annexed. They just seized the opportunity to take back important xUSSR territory. The inhabitants are mostly happy, though, as they were promised new horizons and no mandatory Ukrainian language, which they never spoken. All these regional problems are mainly due to the language. If Ukraine allowed Russian as it's second official (or at least regional) language, Donbas would return back in a blink. And Crimea might follow.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#55

Post by Ygg2 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #46
bsedlm wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

from the Russian point of view, offering NATO membership to Ukraine is an act of agression and they've been wrecking Ukraine for this ever since.

> from the Russian point of view, offering NATO membership to Ukraine is an act of agression and they've been wrecking Ukraine for this ever since One, Ukraine hasn't been invited to join NATO. Two, even if NATO had never entertained the idea, I'm sure Putin would pitch the existence of hats and teacups as clear evidence of Western aggression against Russia.

Ok. But reverse positions. Mexico and Canada join Russian federation and Russia start building bases there. And this is despite Russia promising not to do that.

I can't imagine USA acting in cool and peaceful manner when sword of Damocles hangs near them.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#56

Post by JumpCrisscross »

danjac wrote: post #10

The bigger question is "why now". Ukraine is not joining NATO or the EU any time soon. Russia has de facto annexed Crimea and its ongoing support for separatists in Donbas keeps the region unstable to its advantage. I suspect two reasons: Putin's flagging domestic support and Russia's (and to be honest, the world's) perception that America is currently so divided and weak it will be unable to offer much resistance th…

> "why now"

Armenia just lost a war [1]. Minsk is swallowed by protests [2]. Kazakhstan is now facing protests [3]. That's half the CSTO members [4]. Meanwhile, Georgia and Ukraine are reminders to disheveled Russians that democracy for former Soviet members can work. (Also Nord Stream [5].)

The cause for action begins and ends with domestic politics vis-a-vis Putin, who has created a system where losing power means loss of property, freedom and potentially life.

[1] https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46651

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020–2021_Belarusian_protests

[3] https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/05/world/asia/kazakhstan-pro...

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_Security_Treaty_Org...

[5] https://news.yahoo.com/u-senate-vote-cruzs-nord-011608935.ht...

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#57

Post by scottLobster »

danjac wrote: post #10

The bigger question is "why now". Ukraine is not joining NATO or the EU any time soon. Russia has de facto annexed Crimea and its ongoing support for separatists in Donbas keeps the region unstable to its advantage. I suspect two reasons: Putin's flagging domestic support and Russia's (and to be honest, the world's) perception that America is currently so divided and weak it will be unable to offer much resistance th…

Difference, at least with regard to China/Taiwan, is timeline. Russia could likely steamroll much of Ukraine in a short period of time, and the US/NATO has few assets available for immediate response to hundreds of thousands of Russian troops. The conflict could potentially be over before any meaningful military response could be mounted outside of what Ukraine can muster (which compared to the Russians only goes so far).

Taiwan on the other hand could likely hold out for some time, IIRC their entire defense strategy is "be a tough nut to crack until the US shows up", and amphibious assaults are a very different animal from land invasions. It would primarily be a naval/air battle, and the US has plentiful and superior naval and air assets within striking distance of Taiwan, and just by the numbers the US Navy would annihilate the Chinese Navy in an open conflict. Not that the US/Taiwan would take no casualties, it would be the bloodiest US conflict since Vietnam. But if it happened tomorrow it would end in a decisive US/Taiwan victory assuming things stay conventional.

Also China's a special case, as thanks to their one child policy almost all of their soldiers/sailors/pilots/marines are only children, and arguably more importantly (in China) only sons. The officers/pilots in particular are often the only sons of party officials/the societal elite. So any war China starts could have major domestic ramifications as thousands of relatively important Chinese families see their family trees start to wither.

We also have strategic interests in Taiwan thanks to semiconductors, the same can't be said for Ukraine.

That said, just because it wouldn't make any rational sense doesn't mean it won't happen, or that the narrative you describe wouldn't exists. Let's hope Xi's relative pragmatism continues.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#58

Post by ellyagg »

bumby wrote: post #33
baal80spam wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's one of the oldest tricks in the book. Remember that Russia invaded and annexed Crimea "to save Russian citizens".

> It's one of the oldest tricks in the book. I mean, isn't this also the tactic used in the late 1800s in the western U.S. to give a reason to pacify Native Americans? Promote U.S. citizens into frontier homesteads and then use the military to protect them/annex land?

Sure, so if you're a big fan of one you'll be a big fan of the other.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#59

Post by bsedlm »

alkonaut wrote: post #49
bsedlm wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the first part of the video by that professor, explains that ukraine is a very divided country, it's made up by two different groups of people, ukrainian-speakers and russian-speakers. So you gotta take this into account when considering what "Ukraine" wants. > Russian security assurances aren't about trying to defend the country against an encroaching NATO, but rather trying to restore as much as possible the domina…

> So you gotta take this into account when considering what "Ukraine" wants. Ukraine is a sovereign state with internationally recognized borders. Whether Russia thinks that Russia is “anywhere Russian is spoken” or “Anywhere Russians live” isn’t really relevant. “Ethnic Russians” living in Ukraine are Ukrainians, and no amount of unrest or even mistreatment of those citizens would be legal a cause for military actio…

Which works democratically, there's people in Ukraine who will support Russia and people who will support "the west"

The point is also that it's borders are badly drawn, there's an air of civil war to this conflict within Ukraine.

...then again, this is just rando interent opinion and I have no stakes in any of this.

Re: Russia says Ukraine talks hit 'dead end', Poland warns of risk of war

#60

Post by JumpCrisscross »

Ygg2 wrote: post #55
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> from the Russian point of view, offering NATO membership to Ukraine is an act of agression and they've been wrecking Ukraine for this ever since One, Ukraine hasn't been invited to join NATO. Two, even if NATO had never entertained the idea, I'm sure Putin would pitch the existence of hats and teacups as clear evidence of Western aggression against Russia.

Ok. But reverse positions. Mexico and Canada join Russian federation and Russia start building bases there. And this is despite Russia promising not to do that. I can't imagine USA acting in cool and peaceful manner when sword of Damocles hangs near them.

> Mexico and Canada join Russian federation and Russia start building bases there. And this is despite Russia promising not to do that.

NATO members are not annexed by America. Ukraine isn't part of NATO, and has had no realistic path to membership for some time. And a good way to get American bases in Ukraine is to threaten to invade it.

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