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The Great Siberian Thaw

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91–100 of 104 posts

Re: The Great Siberian Thaw

#91
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A year's break? You mean, nobody work for a year? The death rate would skyrocket as the Swiss died from easily treatable medical problems like appendicitis. Everyone in a nursing home would be dead after a few days, and you'd have mass starvation and riots in every city within weeks. No food would be planted or harvested, so even when the truckers and supermarket workers began to work again the starvation would not e…

I'm sorry on what planet do you live? Up to the point of food (and probably after) I was thinking you were being ironic, but though HN are reputed for humor, could you not humour me and explain why food prices would skyrocket? Basic foodstuffs are cheap, even in Switzerland, 500g of good cheap brown bread at Migros cost 1$... noone is taking noones savings away, according to google Switzerland spent almost 17B$suppor…

If everyone "takes a break", then how does your average city dweller acquire food? The naieve reading of the phrase "why not take a break" would imply that no one is staffing the supermarkets, no one is driving trucks to deliver food to supermarkets, no one is farming at commercial scale, etc.

Perhaps you need more specificity in what "take a break" means.

Re: The Great Siberian Thaw

#92
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why does every solar geoengineering project seem to pretend that decreasing solar radiation wouldn't impact photosynthesis which also binds CO2, and, uh, supports the entire food web / our civilization? We already are massively stressing the biosphere: mass extinctions, mass destruction of habitat, mass disruption of migration patterns, warming, plastic pollution, invasive species. And the suggestion is to reduce inc…

Solar engineering is interesting because we've already observed it, for periods of a year or two after major volcanic eruptions. Those have put enough sulfur dioxide in the stratosphere to block about one percent of sunlight, and disaster did not ensue. Since the sulfur dioxide goes away after a year or two, if it does start to cause a problem then you can simply stop emitting it. However, if you absolutely want to a…

"want to avoid potential impact on crops"

I'm not trying to demonize you pointing this out, but the semantics of this is interesting and typical of modern engineering, and it is in the same blind spot that economics has...

No I'm not interested in crops as all. I don't care about farm yields, profitability, market fluctuations, food supply or all.

I am concerned about the stability and long term survival of the biosphere. Yes, so that we don't go extinct, but more that that, so that we aren't living in domes in a no longer life supporting planet.

Of course, engineering (and economics) are disciplines that can only work on the basis of things they can measure. Your statement basically refers to something that is measurable: crops and crop yields.

But do we have economic or engineering measurements of the health of local and global biomes, beyond "wow they are a lot worse than they used to be"? Do we have any way of saying "this engineering project or economic policy will result in this degradation to the almost infinitely complex natures of habitats and biomes? We do not. We don't even really have good approximations.

What is disturbing is that the approximations we DO have, like species extinctions, population declines in top species, qualitative observations of ecosystems, go functionally and absolutely ignored in policy, and by economics. Engineering, which produces the only hopes of technological solutions to our problems, still is riddled with the "make it work, don't worry that much about side effects" (well, since that's all the management and budget economics allow).

I harp on engineers in this case because in my experience they are strangely conservative and republican, and by extension, anti-environment. I believe this is because every large engineering project has this stage:

"The environmental impact review"

Which is a huge blob of uncertainty, and engineers hate uncertainty. And therefore, by human nature, they hate the thing the uncertainty surrounds. And so they hate environmental reviews, and they hate the environment.

This really really really needs to change.

Re: The Great Siberian Thaw

#93
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A year's break? You mean, nobody work for a year? The death rate would skyrocket as the Swiss died from easily treatable medical problems like appendicitis. Everyone in a nursing home would be dead after a few days, and you'd have mass starvation and riots in every city within weeks. No food would be planted or harvested, so even when the truckers and supermarket workers began to work again the starvation would not e…

I'm sorry on what planet do you live? Up to the point of food (and probably after) I was thinking you were being ironic, but though HN are reputed for humor, could you not humour me and explain why food prices would skyrocket? Basic foodstuffs are cheap, even in Switzerland, 500g of good cheap brown bread at Migros cost 1$... noone is taking noones savings away, according to google Switzerland spent almost 17B$suppor…

> however reality is they have one of the highest suicide rates currently

Where are you getting your Swiss suicide statistics from please? How are you de-coupling assisted deaths from other suicide?

Re: The Great Siberian Thaw

#94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except the situation isn't over when your house has burned to the ground. Taking the metaphor literally... You have a family and you need shelter. You need to figure out how to survive without shelter. You need to see what you can salvage. Which means still trying to put the fire out so that some of your things or some of the materials can be salvaged so you can consider rebuilding. You need to start clearing out the…

I think its both valuable and important to recognize that the climate change is inevitable so that we can stop talking about how we might prevent it, and start talking about how we can sustain our civilization regardless of the weather. (How would we sustain ourselves if we lived in a satellite orbiting the sun?) I also think neither democracy or capitalism is well equipped to ask people to make large sacrifices for…

This is an incredibly new development and is based entirely on prosperity.

For most of history of democracy and capitalism, individuals made altruistic choices for their own future generations - not for humanity, but for their own children.

It's only during the post-war boom (and only in the countries that were undamaged by the war) did automatic prosperity become the ubiquitous expectation.

And even in that context, immigrant parents made similar sacrifices.

Re: The Great Siberian Thaw

#95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just realized that perhaps the problem is not global warming. Perhaps the problem is that we are having children. If we all just decided to stop having kids, nobody would care what the weather was like at the end of the century.

With the right partner, kids (depending on how you see it) make you work less,(if you decide to take time to help them grow) enjoy life more (hilarious situations) and grow as a person (suppress your ego) The good thing is they grow up fast and are the closest thing to positive change we can potentially actively have a hand in... also according to book quoted on HN the upper limit of human population is 1 trillion...…

Yes sorry, I was attempting to be facetious. We have 2 kids and loving every moment. They give my life meaning in a way nothing else can.

Re: The Great Siberian Thaw

#96
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Solar engineering is interesting because we've already observed it, for periods of a year or two after major volcanic eruptions. Those have put enough sulfur dioxide in the stratosphere to block about one percent of sunlight, and disaster did not ensue. Since the sulfur dioxide goes away after a year or two, if it does start to cause a problem then you can simply stop emitting it. However, if you absolutely want to a…

"want to avoid potential impact on crops" I'm not trying to demonize you pointing this out, but the semantics of this is interesting and typical of modern engineering, and it is in the same blind spot that economics has... No I'm not interested in crops as all. I don't care about farm yields, profitability, market fluctuations, food supply or all. I am concerned about the stability and long term survival of the biosp…

I completely agree that we need to protect the whole biosphere, so please s/crops/biosphere, that was my bad.

At this point, sadly, geoengineering may be a necessary part of protecting it. We're on the verge of positive feedbacks that could take things out of our hands, as the planet starts emitting vast amounts of greenhouse gases with no more help from us. If all we do is stop emissions, there's a good chance that we'll cross that tipping point before we're done. It's possible that we've already crossed it.

Re: The Great Siberian Thaw

#97
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A year's break? You mean, nobody work for a year? The death rate would skyrocket as the Swiss died from easily treatable medical problems like appendicitis. Everyone in a nursing home would be dead after a few days, and you'd have mass starvation and riots in every city within weeks. No food would be planted or harvested, so even when the truckers and supermarket workers began to work again the starvation would not e…

I'm sorry on what planet do you live? Up to the point of food (and probably after) I was thinking you were being ironic, but though HN are reputed for humor, could you not humour me and explain why food prices would skyrocket? Basic foodstuffs are cheap, even in Switzerland, 500g of good cheap brown bread at Migros cost 1$... noone is taking noones savings away, according to google Switzerland spent almost 17B$suppor…

I live on Earth, you're ignoring my questions, and I'm flagging your post. Try to do better.

Re: The Great Siberian Thaw

#98
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry on what planet do you live? Up to the point of food (and probably after) I was thinking you were being ironic, but though HN are reputed for humor, could you not humour me and explain why food prices would skyrocket? Basic foodstuffs are cheap, even in Switzerland, 500g of good cheap brown bread at Migros cost 1$... noone is taking noones savings away, according to google Switzerland spent almost 17B$suppor…

I live on Earth, you're ignoring my questions, and I'm flagging your post. Try to do better.

Flag? Really... that's mean :-) but here goes I'll try to answer your questions/concerns and those of 0xfff2 in one go "You mean, nobody work for a year?" Yes, to the extent they want to do something why not look at it and see if it's usefull, helpful, or just using their time and polluting the environment? Once the obligation to go to work goes away, habits, needs, wants, perspective change

"Everyone in a nursing home would be dead after a few days," this statement I don't understand, I've been in EMS's as the french speakers call them.... and beyond having a high cost, many of those old people could be adequately cared for at home...or use a helper occasionally in a much more efficient/economical manner

"No food would be planted or harvested, so even when the truckers and supermarket workers began to work again the starvation would not end" Figures say ...? 6% of imports are food and beverages..., when people have time they cook, so use of basic foodstuffs would go up, that of expensive, overly packaged foodstuffs (dissapear) one would hope, I answered this question inasmuch as pointing out food in general is cheap... Switzerland is currently sitting on a huge amount of wealth that is stuck in real estate, pressure for an appreciating CHf (on which they are using debt to counter more than 2k per Swiss person)

"no one is staffing the supermarkets, no one is driving trucks to deliver food to supermarkets, no one is farming at commercial scale" Open markets are a thing, self driving trucks too, automatic check outs ...vending machines...as for commercial farming it's gotten out of hand... I studied horticulture and personally avoid supermarket food in Switzerland, it's tastless, expensive and in many cases over packaged... come to Eastern Europe...for flavour,

If people were to have more free time, don't you think, the great outside , gardening, cooking and sharing good food would be one of their préoccupations?

A simple google search turns up

"It has one of the highest sucide rates in Europe, in 2014, 1,029 people committed non-assisted suicide (754 men, 275 women), for a rate of 12.5 per 100,000 (18.5 male, 6.6 female). Not included are 742 assisted suicides (320 men, 422 women); most of the assisted suicides concerned elderly people suffering from a terminal disease."

Tldr I understand the misgivings my "naive" statements produce, but plead for people to open their minds to other potential lifestyles that could really help combat CC...

Re: The Great Siberian Thaw

#99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder how many more trees are going to grow on the defrosted land. Siberia is basically one enormous birch forest already [0]. I assume that as the land warms that treeline is going to advance north. [0] I rode the Trans-Siberian railway from Moscow to Ulan Bator, and it was days of the exact same scenery: birch trees lining the railway, with the occasional breathtaking scene that was just often enough to keep me…

Further north, it's mostly spruce.

Is that going to shift further north as it warms? I'm curious about how this is going to work.

Re: The Great Siberian Thaw

#100
post #30
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The gases being released aren't toxic until a hundred times higher than current levels. Filtering out methane and CO₂ is routine for life-support systems in submarines, spacecraft, and, yes, bunkers, so it's not infeasible. The problem is that they cause global warming, not toxicity, and we can't build an isolated sealed compound to protect the planet from them.

> The gases being released aren't toxic until a hundred times higher than current levels. You obviously have no idea what you are talking about. Current atmospheric CO2 level is 400ppm which already has a measurable impact on performance on tasks (compared to 250ppm couple decades ago). Increasing it to just 1000ppm further degrades performance. And 2500ppm makes it difficult to concentrate on anything complex. Even…

1000ppm is quite normal indoors. My office is 800ppm right now.

It will take probably 100 years to get to 1000ppm.

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