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Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

telegraph.co.uk

291–300 of 833 posts

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#291
I don't know to what extent the China Daily News, apparently a Chinese communist propaganda outlet[0], can be considered a reliable source in 2004, but back in the day the folks in Bejing seemed to be a bit peeved about their lab minions with regards to the first SARS epidemic.

http://web.archive.org/web/20040703130948/https://www.chinad...

And it weren't just the Chinese with a rather sloppy lab security, it seems.

https://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/CDS_CSR_ARO_2...

Better times back then.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Daily

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#292
post #241

You know this effect, when you've been reading the news for years, and finally your favorite source has a story about something you studied or worked on, and you realize how low quality or outright wrong it is? The spell is broken and you realize how little they know about anything they write. Once government officials and scientists gaslight us about what they think they should, how does one know they wouldn't for a…

Government officials are not one homogenous group, and neither are scientists. Please remember that most people who belong to one of those groups truly want to get to truth and improve our knowledge and lives.

It's much more reasonable to think most government officials and scientists don't care one way or the other. Some outliers in both groups are malicious, some outliers are benign.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#293
post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Getting into crypto around 2012 dramatically highlighted this for me. Many in here still regurgitate the same talking points I saw published then.

Could you list a few of those, please?

It even correlates with the price.

https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/

If you would remove the dates and the prices, I would not be able to tell the age of most of these headlines.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#294
So for anyone reading this and seeing other comments about gain of function. The first thing you should realize is that the people here commenting about gain of function have no idea what they are talking about. They are completely clueless about micro biology and have never read any of the published papers that were labeled gain of function. For someone naive you would get the impression from the news that the research was a slam dunk obvious case of gain of function. But if you know some biology and actually looked at the papers then you know this really fuzzy and ambiguous and really does depend on how you define "gain of function".

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#295
post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are multiple labs in Wuhan. Wuhan institute of virology is the main on people like to talk about but there was indeed another lab a block or two away from the wet market. I don't know if both were doing virology experiments. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuhan_Center_For_Disease_Con...

It’s a Level 2 facility, not studying bats or coronavirus. https://www.wsj.com/articles/head-of-who-team-investigating-... > “They also reported no storage nor laboratory activities on CoVs [coronaviruses] or other bat viruses preceding the outbreak.” > The lab is classified BSL-2, a safety level at which air ventilation controls aren’t particularly strict, as they are in more secure labs. At that level, lab workers…

> It’s a Level 2 facility, not studying bats or coronavirus.

It is indeed a level 2 facility, and it was being used to perform the bat coronavirus research outsourced to the WIV [1]:

The NIH decided the risk was worth it. In a potentially fateful decision, it funded work similar to Baric’s at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which soon used its own reverse-genetics technology to make numerous coronavirus chimeras.

Unnoticed by most, however, was a key difference that significantly shifted the risk calculation. The Chinese work was carried out at biosafety level 2 (BSL-2), a much lower tier than Baric’s BSL-3+.

[1] https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/06/29/1027290/gain-of-...

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#296
post #241

You know this effect, when you've been reading the news for years, and finally your favorite source has a story about something you studied or worked on, and you realize how low quality or outright wrong it is? The spell is broken and you realize how little they know about anything they write. Once government officials and scientists gaslight us about what they think they should, how does one know they wouldn't for a…

I think this view is overly negative. First of all, consider the timing of this all; this was super early days. People, including many experts, had much less facts then, and the topic was sensitive. I think it's perfectly reasonable and even necessary that ill-founded but hard-to-disprove theories such as the lab leak theory at the time are examined critically, but to do so requires a healthy debate - in particular, a debate in which people constructively interpret what other's say, and don't take it out of context. The back and forth helps focus attention on all the various factors and indirect or partially trusted evidence.

But that means people must be able to propose ill-founded hypotheses. They'll be proposing tons of them as they try to separate fact from fiction!

In an idealized world you might do this in the open. Unfortunately, media outlets and social media including hacker news will take things out of context, as both the telegraph and this very discussion is doing right now. That's simply not a valid interpretation of the participants opinions and their confidence in them. Selectively quoting "experts" while they're still forming their interpretation of the data is misleading, because it removed the whole point of expertise; the reason you trust such expert opinion is because it is informed, and the social contract here is that experts should refrain from misusing their authority when they're not sure of their conclusions. And most generally do that to maintain their reputation.

So what to make of this? I think this could simply be part of a normal healthy debate; one that never saw the light of day simply because (a) evidence was lacking, and alternative explanations (e.g. of that furin cleavage site) emerged, and (b) given the lack of evidence and the unfortunate impossibility to express a nuanced opinion and have it be interpreted by the public correctly due to the charged atmosphere at the time, many chose simply not to speak.

That's not to say there aren't a few people that probably acted in bad faith, but the vast majority looks perfectly reasonable to me. And if we want to avoid this in the future, we need to have an atmosphere where nuance is expressible; otherwise you simply can't expect people to open up about potentially explosive hypotheses that they themselves don't even really support but cannot rule out; the damage to their reputation and to society would be too large.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#297

Dear HNers, please consult the post history of OPs account. It is a newish account which has been used daily to post controversial ideological and political flame baits, mostly related to COVID conspiracies, pandemic denialism and low-key misinformation.

Can you explain why you think this telegraph article is part of a conspiracy theory?

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't expect it to be suspicious or odd _in China_. What I am saying is that internationally we should not just shrug it off as "aww, it just China, they're always so sneaky and secretive even when it's nothing!" We should treat the situation as if they are indeed hiding something important every time, because otherwise, constantly acting suspiciously about everything is an effective strategy for them conceal anyth…

It is being used as proof that they leaked it from a lab, when it is just how societies built like China behave. You can't infer anything from normal behavior. It is similar to the way that Hussein's actions in blocking access to presidential palaces was considered to be highly suspicious and therefore proof that he was hiding his weapons program. Turns out he was just trying to save face domestically by standing up…

Didn’t work out well for him.

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't expect it to be suspicious or odd _in China_. What I am saying is that internationally we should not just shrug it off as "aww, it just China, they're always so sneaky and secretive even when it's nothing!" We should treat the situation as if they are indeed hiding something important every time, because otherwise, constantly acting suspiciously about everything is an effective strategy for them conceal anyth…

It is being used as proof that they leaked it from a lab, when it is just how societies built like China behave. You can't infer anything from normal behavior. It is similar to the way that Hussein's actions in blocking access to presidential palaces was considered to be highly suspicious and therefore proof that he was hiding his weapons program. Turns out he was just trying to save face domestically by standing up…

Yeah, holding strong to the logic that's like a mom concluding of her kindergartner "You're being evasive, this means definitely that you're hiding something" is ridiculous.

If the outbreak started in Colorado, and Russia wanted access to the CDC lab there, Americans (officials and public) would also be crying and screaming...

Re: Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt

#300
It’s hard to believe how bad this is. Not the lab leak theory itself, but the fact that scientists found it plausible that a scientific mistake released an epidemic which killed 20m people – and decided they should cover this up because “talking about it might harm science“. This is truly scandalous, and I don’t see how those people can remain in their post.
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