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Two startups tried to catch up to makers of advanced computer chips, and failed

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Re: Two startups tried to catch up to makers of advanced computer chips, and failed

#51

Economical and performant chip and jet turbine production are two areas where China can't really take any shortcuts. They have to put in a lot of time and resources to rediscover closely guarded secrets that are almost impossible to reverse engineer. They are dumping in the resources, so I'm sure they will eventually get there, but it might be a few decades (in both fields, they can already do performant or economica…

NO manufacturing line is easily transplantable or built from scratch. This is not limited to semiconductors.

My favorite story about this is a paint manufacturer building a brand new, state-of-the-art manufacturing facility to increase their capacity. Everything was controlled, monitored, etc. to the nth degree.

Only one problem--paint from the new line no longer stuck to anything.

Cue a crash debugging with all hands on deck. The problem? The new line was too clean.

Paint relies on the correct ends attaching to the wall and then the other ends forming a kind of network to protect those. But there is a tradeoff--the outer paint surface (exposed to elements) vs the inner paint surface (attaches to the wall) have different needs. If you make the inner paint surface too dense (molecules all vertical) the paints sticks great, but then doesn't protect against the elements. If you make the outer paint surface dense (molecules all horizontal) then the paint protects well, but then won't stick to the wall.

The solution: add some "dirt". Adding some very fine, very small inert particles can change the angle that the paint molecules connect and fix the adhesion issues.

The lesson: nobody knows all the things necessary to run a manufacturing line. Ever.

Re: Two startups tried to catch up to makers of advanced computer chips, and failed

#52

Where is Mill CPU? Been almost 10 years since they started talking about architecture, but nothing tangible emerged yet.

I asked myself this about 2 weeks ago and went looking. As far as I can tell they're quietly working still.

Re: Two startups tried to catch up to makers of advanced computer chips, and failed

#53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting. What about hiring people from the leading companies? Isn't that how a lot of knowledge transfer happens in all industries? Are non-competes enforceable internationally?

On some other forums/blogs that I follow, there are Turkish information operations guys who post about the triumphs of the Turkish defence industry. Their lead guy says that Turkish companies are throwing million-dollar salaries at experienced American engineers with things like aerospace experience. Take that statement with a pound of salt. But I did look at a few Turkish companies that seemed to be hiring foreign e…

They don’t pay high salaries to foreigners at all. In fact they lose local engineers to foreigners, especially the likes of Airbus, who poach them. Their only success stems from US and foreign unofficial embargoes and sanctions which has forced them to produce domestically. Turkey used to produce airplanes even in the 1940s which were then shut down by US allied governments.

https://istanbultarihi.ist/578-the-nuri-demirag-aircraft-fac...

Re: Two startups tried to catch up to makers of advanced computer chips, and failed

#54

Economical and performant chip and jet turbine production are two areas where China can't really take any shortcuts. They have to put in a lot of time and resources to rediscover closely guarded secrets that are almost impossible to reverse engineer. They are dumping in the resources, so I'm sure they will eventually get there, but it might be a few decades (in both fields, they can already do performant or economica…

> but it might be a few decades

They could just hire the experts from the incumbents

Re: Two startups tried to catch up to makers of advanced computer chips, and failed

#55

Economical and performant chip and jet turbine production are two areas where China can't really take any shortcuts. They have to put in a lot of time and resources to rediscover closely guarded secrets that are almost impossible to reverse engineer. They are dumping in the resources, so I'm sure they will eventually get there, but it might be a few decades (in both fields, they can already do performant or economica…

My grandfather figured out how to grow large haloid crystals, which were used in camera polaroid Carl Zeiss "Bernotar" filters. He kept the process a secret, which died with him.

My family gets contacted now and then by researchers trying to figure out how to do it.

Re: Two startups tried to catch up to makers of advanced computer chips, and failed

#56
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

why haven't alternatives emerged to ASML to help drive down the cost of building new fabs? do you know what the cost breakdown is when building fabs?

Because the EUV machines that ASML build are the most complex machines ever built by humans and getting all the bits to work properly takes decades of R+D e.g. watch this about the light source, its completely bonkers https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ge2RcvDlgw

And note also that all the software that is needed to engineer those things is also not allowed to be sold to China, so that is also another thing they have to replicate. And by the time you catch up on the decades of R&D and trade secrets needed to catch up with where the software is at now, everything has evolved even further ahead. Keeping pace with semiconductor technology is a never ending treadmill of constant innovation.

Source: my company is one of those not allowed to sell this type of software to China

Re: Two startups tried to catch up to makers of advanced computer chips, and failed

#57
post #54

Economical and performant chip and jet turbine production are two areas where China can't really take any shortcuts. They have to put in a lot of time and resources to rediscover closely guarded secrets that are almost impossible to reverse engineer. They are dumping in the resources, so I'm sure they will eventually get there, but it might be a few decades (in both fields, they can already do performant or economica…

> but it might be a few decades They could just hire the experts from the incumbents

The article said that’s exactly what they did from CEO to engineers and they still failed.

HSMC attracted a former top TSMC executive as chief executive. QXIC recruited dozens of experienced engineers from Taiwan, including from TSMC, with relatively big pay packages, according to former employees.

Re: Two startups tried to catch up to makers of advanced computer chips, and failed

#58
post #54

Economical and performant chip and jet turbine production are two areas where China can't really take any shortcuts. They have to put in a lot of time and resources to rediscover closely guarded secrets that are almost impossible to reverse engineer. They are dumping in the resources, so I'm sure they will eventually get there, but it might be a few decades (in both fields, they can already do performant or economica…

> but it might be a few decades They could just hire the experts from the incumbents

The process/material knowledge is actually pretty easy to keep under lock and key. No one knows the formula, or the key is in the equipment that whose production is strictly controlled. They need to get access to the all of the knowledge all at once, not just bits and pieces of it.

Re: Two startups tried to catch up to makers of advanced computer chips, and failed

#59

Economical and performant chip and jet turbine production are two areas where China can't really take any shortcuts. They have to put in a lot of time and resources to rediscover closely guarded secrets that are almost impossible to reverse engineer. They are dumping in the resources, so I'm sure they will eventually get there, but it might be a few decades (in both fields, they can already do performant or economica…

My grandfather figured out how to grow large haloid crystals, which were used in camera polaroid Carl Zeiss "Bernotar" filters. He kept the process a secret, which died with him. My family gets contacted now and then by researchers trying to figure out how to do it.

So interesting! Any pictures?

Re: Two startups tried to catch up to makers of advanced computer chips, and failed

#60
post #54

Economical and performant chip and jet turbine production are two areas where China can't really take any shortcuts. They have to put in a lot of time and resources to rediscover closely guarded secrets that are almost impossible to reverse engineer. They are dumping in the resources, so I'm sure they will eventually get there, but it might be a few decades (in both fields, they can already do performant or economica…

> but it might be a few decades They could just hire the experts from the incumbents

Assuming they'll agree to work for them. I imagine many of the people who hold the secret sauce (especially from TSMC) wouldn't work for a Chinese company. I was surprised they managed to hire a former TSMC executive to head up one of the (now failed) companies.

Then again, there may be no "secret sauce" in the way we usually think about it. You might have to hire hundreds of people from an incumbent to pull in enough institutional knowledge to get things going. And even then it's not going to happen overnight.

I feel like the right people to hire, at any rate, aren't the executives. You need the right engineers, scientists, and researchers.

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